539
FNAK71 PAFC 060406
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Nelchina Glacier Fire...SOA DOF
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
806 PM AKDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 AKDT on July 05.

.DISCUSSION...

Any lingering isolated showers near the forecast area will taper
off by late this evening. Clouds will linger overnight along with
light and variable winds. For Sunday, winds will remain light and
variable, but will generally have a southerly component. Shower
activity will again increase by mid afternoon Sunday, but the bulk
of shower activity may stay to the northwest of the forecast area,
similar to Saturday afternoon and evening. Better chances for rain
to develop late Sunday night into early Monday morning as a
frontal system moves toward Prince William Sound, sending moisture
over the Chugach Mountains. Rain becomes more likely late Sunday
night into early Monday morning as the first of two waves of
precipitation moves through the Copper River Basin. This first
round will likely lift north by Monday afternoon, with only a few
scattered showers lingering at this time. The second round of
steadier rainfall is expected by Monday evening and may continue
into Tuesday morning.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers through 9 PM.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 4 to 7 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL in the evening falling to around
400 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 11 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after 3 am.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers beginning mid afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast around 5 mph early in the morning,
then becoming light in the late morning and
early afternoon. Then becoming southeast
around 6 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Around 400 ft AGL in the early morning rising
to around 3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 14 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.


.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Chance of
                    rain late in the evening, then rain overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent early in the evening increasing to
70 percent overnight.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 6 to 9 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light and variable overnight.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL in the evening falling to around
300 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest
                    overnight.
Pcpn amount.........0.10 inches.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain likely in the
morning, then scattered rain showers in the
afternoon. Then rain likely in the evening.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 60 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent in the morning, diminishing to 40
percent in the afternoon. Then increasing to
80 percent in the evening.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable in the morning becoming
southwest wind 4 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL in the morning rising to around
1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.18 inches.


$$
Forecaster...Markle
Requested by...Ben Englehardt
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516889.5/AER
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jered.kemp@alaska.gov,fireinalaska@yahoo.com,akacdc@firenet.gov,daniel.white@alaska.gov,lonnie.cawston.mtf@colvilletribes.com