998
FNAK71 PAFC 020345
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Nelchina Glacier Fire...SOA DOF
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
745 PM AKDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 AKDT on July 01.

.DISCUSSION...

A fairly steady state pattern will set up across the western
Copper River Basin over the next few days as prevailing easterly
flow aloft persists between a ridge intensifying over the Interior
and a front stalled in the Gulf. Wednesday will by far have the
best chance for a wet thunderstorm or two to affect the fire
location over the next few days. While wetting rain from scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be far from a guarantee, the chance
for a few thunderstorms to move southwest from the Copper Basin
into Tahneta Pass is now looking a bit more favored.

Otherwise, expect fairly warm and dry conditions to persist
through Thursday. There will likely continue to be a spike in
south to southwest winds during each afternoon, especially out of
the Nelchina River valley.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 8 mph. Gusts to 20 mph
during the evening.
Mixing height.......3000 ft in the evening decreasing to 400 ft
AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-50 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph in the morning
                    becoming south 7 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds possible near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then isolated rain showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds possible near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.05 inches.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers through the day.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming south 5 o 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft in the morning increasing to 4900 ft
AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

$$
Forecaster...Shriver
Requested by...Jered Kemp
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516889.2/AER
.DELDT 07/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lonnie.cawston.mtf@colvilletribes.com,daniel.white@alaska.gov,jered.kemp@alaska.gov,fireinalaska@yahoo.com