565
FNUS73 KABR 261345
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Sheriff Dam RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
845 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Currently there is a slight inversion over the burn
site keeping winds calm or light and from the southeast. This
inversion looks to mix out mid-morning, mixing down some stronger
southerly wind gusts up to 20-25 mph from late morning to early
afternoon. Today`s wind forecast is tricky because a surface
trough of low pressure between Rapid City and Pierre will
ultimately decide the wind`s direction depending on where the low
tracks to by early this evening. For now, a light southeast wind
this morning should become southerly by early afternoon. Beyond
that, there may be a few hours late this afternoon when the wind
becomes westerly before eventually settling down this evening from
the northeast. Sustained winds today may only top out around 15
mph, but that wind direction could be troublesome.

Please give the office a call (605-225-5547) if the winds are not
panning out.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 13 to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-9300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 22
                    to 24 mph late in the afternoon, then shifting
                    to the west around 22 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (65800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (106300
                    knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
                    excellent (177100 knot-ft) in the afternoon
                    late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  64  54  47  39  32  27  30  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............41  47  52  57  62  68  71  72  74
RH..............44  40  39  40  36  32  30  29  27
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   10  13  14  15  14  14  14  13
20 FT wind gust.9   13  16  20  22  22  22  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.5 5.1 6.0 8.2 9.3
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  VGD VGD EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 8 to 12 mph early in the evening.
Mixing height.......600-9600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 21 mph shifting to the north 12 to
                    14 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the east 12 to 17 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (172400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5500 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........23  13  17  15  13  12  9   10  11  13  13  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............73  72  66  59  54  50  46  44  42  40  39  38
RH..............28  29  35  43  47  54  60  62  67  72  74  83
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  10  12  10  10  9   9   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.17  15  16  17  17  17  16  15  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...9.6 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Smoke Dispersal.EXL PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 13 to 17 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......600-3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 18 mph shifting to the southeast 21
                    to 22 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (56800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  11  19  22  18  8   11  14  11  9   6   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............37  36  36  39  45  48  53  58  61  64  67  68
RH..............85  81  83  77  66  60  52  45  42  38  35  35
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  12  13  14  15  16  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.13  14  15  16  18  20  21  22  23  24  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.9
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...Vernon
Requested by...Ryan Cumbow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508024.0/ABR
.DELDT 03/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.cumbow@usda.gov