Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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FNUS73 KABR 091259
FWSABR
Spot Forecast for Medicine Creek RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
759 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...A weak front slides southeast this morning, trailing
across the burn site. While winds will not be very strong today,
remaining below 15 mph, direction will shift a couple of times
around the front. Can`t rule out a stray sprinkle or light shower
with the front, but expect most of the activity will remain to the
south. No wetting rains are expected through Tuesday. Winds
increase out of the south on Saturday with gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the north 12
to 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500-9900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph shifting to the north 9 to 13
mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (109100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52 41 39 30 29 23 18 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............69 74 77 80 82 83 83 83
RH..............45 40 36 33 29 27 26 24
20 FT wind dir..W W W NW N N N N
20 FT wind spd..6 7 9 9 10 12 13 14
20 FT wind gust.15 13 10 13 13 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.1 3.4 6.5 8.4 9.4 9.9 9.7
Smoke Dispersal.PR PR PR FR GD GD VGD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
east 8 to 9 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500-9200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 16 mph increasing to 15 to 16 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (101000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (6600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12 12 16 9 9 5 6 6 5 7 8 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............82 80 76 70 66 63 62 60 59 57 55 54
RH..............25 30 39 49 54 58 58 60 60 62 59 59
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..14 14 12 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust. 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 17
Mix hgt (kft)...9.2 4.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
Smoke Dispersal.VGD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to
17 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-8700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 21 mph shifting to the south 18
to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (78900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (114100
knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
excellent (157300 knot-ft) in the afternoon
late in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7 11 11 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............53 53 57 62 66 71 75 79 82 84 86 86
RH..............59 57 49 43 40 36 33 30 27 25 21 21
20 FT wind dir..E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
20 FT wind spd..8 8 10 13 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 17
20 FT wind gust.17 14 18 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.1 8.7 8.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD VGD VGD EXL VGD
$$
Forecaster...Wise
Requested by...Ryan Cumbow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513617.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.cumbow@usda.gov