Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
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753
FGUS73 KABR 311807
ESFABR
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-081815-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
107 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period:
Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Elm River
Westport 14.0 16.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:James River
Columbia 13.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
Stratford 14.0 17.0 18.5 : <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5
Ashton 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 6 <5 6 <5 5
Redfield 20.0 22.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Snake Creek
Ashton 11.5 13.0 16.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Turtle Creek
:Big Sioux River
Watertown 10NW 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Watertown Conifer 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Watertown Broadwy 10.5 11.0 13.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Castlewood 9.0 11.0 16.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Little Eagle 15.0 17.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Moreau River
White Horse 21.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Bad River
Fort Pierre 21.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Minnesota
Peever 17.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
Big Stone Lake 971.5 973.0 975.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period:
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Elm River
Westport 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6
:James River
Columbia 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7
Stratford 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7
Ashton 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Redfield 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
:Snake Creek
Ashton 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
:Turtle Creek
:Big Sioux River
Watertown 10NW 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6
Watertown Conifer 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5
Watertown Broadwy 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4
Castlewood 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.7
:Grand River
Little Eagle 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.8
:Moreau River
White Horse 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 4.0 5.1 5.8
:Bad River
Fort Pierre 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.7 3.4 4.9
:Little Minnesota
Peever 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1
:Minnesota River
Big Stone Lake 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period:
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Elm River
Westport 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
:James River
Columbia 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Stratford 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Ashton 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
Redfield 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
:Snake Creek
Ashton 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
:Turtle Creek
:Big Sioux River
Watertown 10NW 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Watertown Conifer 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Watertown Broadwy 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Castlewood 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
:Grand River
Little Eagle 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:Moreau River
White Horse 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
:Bad River
Fort Pierre 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
:Little Minnesota
Peever 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Minnesota River
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/abr for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued by the end of November.
$$
Parkin