330
FXUS63 KABR 151927
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
227 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy/areas of fog and drizzle are expected from late this
  afternoon through tonight where rain doesn`t develop.

- Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Thursday
  afternoon over eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- There is a 50-95% chance of showers tonight through Thursday
  evening, with highest chances over north central SD. There is a
  30-75% chance of more than a quarter inch mainly west of the
  Missouri River and north of Hwy 14.

- Windy conditions (NW gusts 30-45mph) and elevated fire danger on
  Saturday, then cold temperatures (near/below freezing) in the
  low to mid 30s likely Saturday night/Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

At 2 PM CDT, it`s cloudy. Temperatures have not moved much off their
morning readings, currently in the upper 40s to mid 50s on an
east wind around 5 to 15 mph. It does appear as though dense fog
went away earlier this morning, but there have continued to be
pockets of light to moderate fog (visby between 1 and 3sm) around
even into this early afternoon.

There is an anomalously warm (for October) mid-level thermal profile
setting up for tonight across, at least, the western half of the
CWA. Currently, 700hpa temperatures range from ~6.5C over the far
northeast corner of the CWA to almost 9C along the southwestern
CWA`s edge. Per the ENS S.A table, heading into tonight, that is 2
standard deviations above normal. So, perhaps it is safe to assume
that mid-level lapse rates overnight will be sufficient to support
thunderstorms (it`s in the forecast). Not all that excited about
severe storm chances overnight, though, provided thunderstorms do
develop, as they would be elevated storms. About the only concern
would be small hail.

Where it is less likely to see the column saturate aloft (and
produce rainfall), a mention of drizzle is in the forecast for
tonight, as model soundings still show lift developing by early this
evening within a deepening stratus layer (well over 1km deep). The
latest PoPs refresh for tonight shows nearly 100 percent PoPs in
place over portions of north central South Dakota, with decreasing
values moving south and east across the CWA. There is also a
continued mention of fog in the forecast for tonight, especially for
those east-wind-favored upslope regions of the CWA, given that last
night`s boundary layer has not changed today and is not expected to
change all that much tonight, with the exception of there being
periods of rain and/or drizzle overnight.

The low pressure system out over the intermountain west, will move
out across the northern plains Thursday night. Leading the charge
will be its surface reflection, moving north-northeastward through
the region on Thursday, sweeping a cold front quickly across the CWA
during peak heating hours on Thursday. If models were depicting
surface/near surface instability along/ahead of this boundary, there
would be a good chance for mini/low-topped supercellular storms
along/ahead of the front, as the deep layer and low level wind shear
during the day on Thursday is quite high. October "high-shear/low-
CAPE" day comes to mind when previewing Thursday`s potential
convective activity. But, again, the deep layer/low level CAPE is
lacking, at this time, so the likelihood of strong/severe Thursday
afternoon convection is rather low. Will continue to (Meso-A)
monitor CAPE trends in the models over the next 12 to 18 hours to
see if this changes (low 60s surface dewpoints currently
happening south of here in Nebraska).

Model guidance does suggest there is some precipitation potential
along this frontal boundary into early Thursday evening, before all
the favorable lift/forcing re-locates to Minnesota for the better
part of Thursday night. The upper circulation`s position over North
Dakota, moving northeast, should keep the majority of TROWAL-forced
precipitation wrapping back around the low bottled up over North
Dakota Thursday night.

Temperatures throughout the short term should be running generally
near to a few degrees above normal, particularly on Thursday where-
ever the warm-sector sets up, if partial/full sunshine-heating can
happen; temperatures into the 70s are forecast on the warm-air side
of the frontal boundary.

Overall, the pattern looks to open up and become a little bit more
progressive with time, after the Thursday system. There still
appears to be one more area of low pressure riding on the coat-tails
of that system, though, bringing some precipitation chances,
briefly, to central South Dakota on Saturday, when the wind is
supposed to pick up some. Still expecting fire danger to come up
some on Saturday, due to the winds, despite there being some rain
chances over a portion of the CWA. Beyond that, there is a frontal
passage scheduled for early next week, and a bit of mid-level
troughing accompanying it. So, can`t rule out some precipitation
potential by next Tuesday. Otherwise, the forecast is dry, with
temperatures expected to be, overall, in a cooling trend from Friday
through next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There are low clouds as well as areas of mist and light drizzle across
the region through the TAF period. This will continue to create
MVFR/IFR visibilities with IFR/LIFR ceilings during the beginning of
the afternoon. The visibilities and ceilings will increase slightly
during the afternoon before decreasing again tonight.

A low level jet will start to push into the area overnight, which
will cause low level windshear to move in around 06z tonight and
stay into the early morning. The low level jet will also start to
slowly mix out the low clouds and fog, though it could take a bit
for everything to get back to MVFR/VFR conditions at all TAF
sites.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...12