174
FXUS63 KABR 170015
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
715 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will begin to subside this evening/overnight, as will the
  rainfall. Less than one-quarter inch additional rainfall
  forecast tonight (7PM CDT and beyond) for most locations.

- The probability of low temperatures falling to 36F degrees or
  colder (frost potential) Saturday night is greater than 90
  percent across northeast South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area
  Sunday through Tuesday. The probability of seeing 1 inch or
  greater of rain over a 48-hour period, ending at 7 am Tuesday,
  is 60 percent or greater for a large portion of the forecast
  area (James River westward to central SD). Severe storm threat
  is very low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The widespread winds in Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
critical have come to an end. As a result, the wind headlines
have been allowed to expire. Winds will continue to diminish in
strength through the day Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Fairly persistent band of light to moderate rain has been
affecting central SD for a good chunk of the day, whereas
locations further east have seen more breaks in the precipitation.
As we head into the evening/overnight hours, the surface low
responsible for the rainfall will begin tracking eastward towards
the northern Great Lakes, thus bringing an end to the shower
activity. As for winds, still seeing a large portion of the CWA
gusting over 45 mph, although mainly west of the James River.
These winds will begin to subside after 00Z this evening and will
go ahead and leave the wind headlines in place without changes for
the time being, which has everything expiring at 00Z.

Focus then shifts to frost potential tonight/tomorrow night. Don`t
see high frost potential tonight as we`ll keep cloudy skies and
breezy conditions in place much of the night, which should prevent
temps from dropping too drastically. That said, forecast lows to
get to around 34-36 degrees over north central SD, where will
should be "lightest" come morning, and where there is better
potential for clearing to take place by sunrise. Across the
eastern CWA, blended in about 50 percent NBM90 lows just to favor
warmer end guidance with all the cloud cover forecast to hang on.
Better frost potential arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning,
although perfect radiational cooling conditions don`t really line
up the greatest. Also, it appears clouds will be on the increase
from the southwest between 06-12Z Sunday. That said, the locations
where winds appear lightest and skies stay clear the longest would
be the eastern CWA, where probability in the NBM for lows 36F or
colder are greater than 90 percent. Will let mid shift go ahead
and issue any potential headlines from this as there is still some
uncertainty in the radiational cooling setup.

Rain chances return to the forecast Sunday through Tuesday as
another area of low pressure approaches the region. Surface low
track looks to be south of the CWA, generally across NE/KS, but
good agreement amongst the models in showing precip overrunning
into SD Sunday night into Tuesday. Potential to pick up an inch or
more rainfall is rather high, as 48-hour probabilities ending at
7am Tuesday in greater than 60 percent for much of central SD into
the James River valley. Potential for severe storms looks rather
low at this time due to an overall lack of unstable air.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly MVFR ceilings will continue overnight, before clearing move
in to central SD (PIR/MBG) 12-14Z and ABR/ATY between 19 and 21Z
Saturday. The main concern over the past 36 hours has been the
winds. While a few gusts near 40kts will remain possible through
03Z, the winds will continue to slowly diminish through the day
Saturday. Gusts will be around 25kts or less at all locations by
09Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06