934
FXUS63 KABR 060216 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
916 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active pattern continues with showers and thunderstorms in
  the forecast through Friday night.

- There is a marginal to slight risk (1 to 2 out of 5) for severe
  storms through tonight across the region with the slight risk
  covering the forecast area west of the Interstate 29 corridor.
  All hazards are possible this afternoon into this evening.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Wednesday. There
  is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms over the entire
  forecast area on Thursday. Strong winds and large hail will be
  the primary threats each day.

- Heat indices could increase to 100-105F degrees on Thursday,
  with similar values on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Continue to watch strong to severe storms moving eastward across
the CWA, some of which produced hail up to baseball size and winds
to 70 mph. Will continue to adjust PoPs to better match radar
trends and expectations. Tornado watch set to expire at 10PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

At 1 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny across the forecast
area. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s (60ss across portions of
north central/northeast South South Dakota under the cloud-cover
were it was or is raining). Winds maintain a general south/southeast
direction around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Elevated
showers/thunderstorms within the remaining low/mid level WAA and
best lingering low level jet/upper level jet lift zones continue to
work toward the northeast corner of the CWA. Back over
western/central South Dakota, the next mid-level s/w is noted in
water vapor imagery entering the western Dakotas. The boundary is
being destabilized, with the best deep layer shear (45-
60knots)/instability (1500-2500J/kg) noted across western/central
South Dakota and the best low level shear (large sweeping low level
curved hodographs)/instability (tor potential) is analyzed across
mainly central/north central South Dakota.

Tonight through Wednesday night, a lee-of-the-Rockies surface
trough, potentially with a surface wave of low pressure developing
on it, will work in tandem with this incoming mid-level s/w to
produce isolated to scattered supercellular convection over
western/central South Dakota by early this evening (right now, it`s
unclear whether the stabilized boundary layer over north central
South Dakota from morning convection will have enough time to mix
out/heat up and be part of the potential severe weather threat
rooted in the boundary layer). Large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes are possible. As the evening becomes overnight, the LLJ,
and increasing mid-level westerlies, combined with what is expected
to be consolidating storm cold-pools, should cause storm mode to
become linear (strong straight-line winds) and move off to the
southeast out of the southern/eastern half of forecast zones. The
lee-side-trof eventually lays down into an almost west to east
oriented boundary on Wednesday before slowly trying to back up to
the north Wednesday night. More than adequate shear/instability is
forecast along this boundary at the end of peak-heating on
Wednesday. But, there may not be any synoptic-scale lift support
around on Wednesday to aide CI on this boundary that is forecast to
be near the U.S. Highway 14 corridor Wednesday evening. If, a storm
or two were to form on/north of this boundary, it would be in an
environment that could cultivate strong/severe convection.

Temperatures over the next 3 forecast periods are forecast to be
near normal, and western CONUS wildfire smoke aloft should increase
in thickness over the region today before taking a break on
Wednesday. The latest available RRFS output to 84 hours, shows the
western CONUS wildfire smoke aloft returning Thursday into Thursday
night.

Thursday into Friday, as heights rise ahead of the vigorous upper
low set to spread across the northern tier states Friday through
Sunday, low/mid-level WAA should push 700hpa thermal capping
temperatures up to +14-15C Thursday/Thursday night and +16-17C
Friday/Friday night. This is going to pretty much shut off
precipitation chances over this area days 3 and 4 of the forecast.
Most convection will be able to thrive to the north across North
Dakota/northern Minnesota Thursday night and Friday/Friday night.
The likelihood of convection turning and diving southeast across the
Prairie Coteau into western Minnesota Thursday night or Friday night
is rather low. This sytem`s cold frontal boundary is still timed to
move through the CWA Friday into Friday night. CIPS/CSU machine
learning and the ENS EFI/shift of tails are still showcasing a
notable signal for severe storms potential in that Thursday night
through Friday night timeframe. Not sure how these capping warm EML
mid-level temperatures are handled by these severe indices.

Ensembles 500hpa height difference/qpf clusters analyses show
precipitation chances falling off now on Friday (capped?) and
continuing a dry scenario into Saturday (and potentially Sunday?) as
the upper low over southern Canada slowly churns off to the east and
northwest flow sets up over the CWA by Monday while western CONUS
upper level ridging develops behind this longwave trof.

The warming trend still appears to max out Thursday/Friday, with
cooler conditions to follow. Right now, the probability of
temperatures warming above 90 degrees (50% or higher) this week is
found, for the most part, south of U.S. Highway 212. Thursday and
Friday continue to showcase the warmest temperatures of the 7-day
forecast, with highs at and south/west of Pierre potentially
encroaching on the century mark again on Thursday. Forecast heat
index values do exceed 100 degrees Thursday afternoon mainly across
portions of central and northeast South Dakota. Friday also has heat
index values running up to around 100F degrees across mainly the
James River valley in the mid to late afternoon. Will continue to
monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

TSRA/+TSRA possible across the region this evening, although quite
a bit of uncertainty remains on direct effects on TAF sites. KABR
may be the best chance in the short term (00Z-03Z) as activity out
of ND begins to drop southeast. Included PROB30 mention to handle
the convection this evening and will adjust accordingly when
confidence increases on any hits to a TAF site. MVFR/IFR VSBY
expected in heavier thunderstorms, along with MVFR CIGs. In
general, there may also be more MVFR CIGs affecting the region
overnight into early Wednesday morning, along with pockets of BR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...TMT