984
FXUS63 KABR 060107 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
807 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Eastern portions of the CWA will see a bump in wind speeds
  again late tonight with a secondary cold front passage.

- Dry and mild conditions through next week. Temperatures peak
  around Thursday with highs in the mid 80s or about 15 to 25
  degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire as winds have diminished
this evening. Relative humidity is slowly recovering as
temperatures fall.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

It appears wind speeds have likely peaked across the region as
latest obs are only showing a couple spots gusting over 45 mph.
Several more locations were gusting over 45 or even 50 mph earlier
today. Will still leave the Wind Advisory in place until 00Z. As for
the Red Flag Warning, will also leave that in place as RH values are
generally below 30 percent across the entire area, and approaching
20 percent over portions of the CWA as well. Look for winds to
diminish closer to sunset, but the passage of a secondary cold front
from north to south overnight will keep breezy winds going over
eastern portions of the CWA. Decent cold air advection in the lower
levels overnight as 925mb temps drop from about +17C/+18C at 00Z
this evening, to around +5C to +8C by 15Z Sunday. Winds behind this
front overnight (closer to 06Z give or take) will likely see a surge
as the front goes through. HREF probability for wind gusts greater
than 40 mph are around 60 percent or higher for a good chunk of the
Coteau/Glacial Lakes region and the Leola Hills area. Although, move
that speed up to 45 mph and probabilities drop dramatically, down to
around 20 percent or less just along the spine of the Coteau. Raw
LAV guidance for 8D3 (Sisseton) does show about 25 knots sustained
around 06Z tonight.

Surface high pressure settles into the region Sunday into Sunday
night. This will bring lighter winds on Sunday, with chilly temps
setting in Sunday night. Blended in a touch of colder-end guidance
Sunday night, especially in valley areas where lows may be cold
enough to support frost in portions of the James River and Big Sioux
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Initially we begin the period in a northwest flow regime, with a
ridge moving overhead mid-week, followed by zonal/southwesterly flow
as the ridge axis moves east. Late in the  period we wee a western
CONUS trough approaching the Dakotas, however this systems influence
ultimately falls outside the day 7 forecast range. So in the
interim, its a completely dry pattern with a trend upwards in
temperatures. NAEFS 850mb temperatures begin to reach the +1
standard deviation above climo Monday, peaking Friday around +2
standard deviations. Thus, the forecast calls for above normal
temperatures with the NBM running 10 to as much as 25 degrees above
normal for highs/lows. Confidence is high with a narrow range within
the NBM 25th/75th for both highs and lows, though smoke from fires
to the west influencing highs is likely not accounted for here.
GEFS/NBM humidity trace also indicates just about every day the
afternoon humidity will fall to around 15-30%. Thankfully, if there
is a silver lining here, there is never much of a pressure gradient
or stronger winds aloft meaning winds should remain below red flag
thresholds for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. Winds will diminish on
Sunday as well.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise