533
FXUS63 KABR 071802 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
102 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River. There is a
marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather north of Hwy 212 and east of
the Missouri.

- Gusty northwest winds of 35-45 mph possible Sunday with cooler
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- Warming trend by the middle of next week, with widespread 80s for
high temperatures by Wednesday. Although, 90s not out of the
question. With the increasing heat and humidity comes several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The forecast for the remainder of the today period is on track at
this point with no significant changes anticipated. The main
thing today will be to monitor any thunderstorm development by
mid to late afternoon across north central sections of SD and
track this activity as it marches eastward this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

South to southwest winds increase ahead of a cold front slated to
move through late this afternoon into this evening. The front
trailing through the Dakotas may produce strong to severe storms
along and just behind it. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) with
a primary threat of strong winds to 60 mph. The steep lapse rates in
drier air ahead of the front will help those wind gusts propagate.
Best chances for storms still appear to develop just west of the
James valley as the front interacts with a narrow inverted sfc
trough stretching off the Rockies as well as a corridor of enhanced
vorticity. This event will be high shear (30 to 40 kts) but low CAPE
(less than 1000 J/kg), so confidence is pretty low that parameters
will come together. It looks to be more of an isolated threat with
the frontal forcing.

Tonight into Sunday, an upper trough dives into the northern Plains.
Building sfc high pressure will keep the region dry on Sunday,
though can`t rule out some popcorn showers Sunday afternoon on
northwest flow, mainly across the northeast where an upper/mid level
lobe of low pressure will dip in. A tight pressure gradient will
also kick up the northwest winds with gusts to around 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday night with an
upper level trough over Duluth, with cold northerly over the CWA.
Temperatures on Monday will be cool, with highs in the mid 60s, to
the mid 70s. These readings are 5 to 12 degrees below average for
this time of year. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for showers,
mainly for northeast portion of the CWA on Sunday night.

By Tuesday, the upper level trough will push east over the Great
Lakes region, allowing for warmer temperatures to quickly move into
the CWA. High temperatures for the rest of the long term will warm
into the 80s for most locations. Some locations may exceed 90
degrees, mainly on Wednesday. With the increasing heat and humidity
comes several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The overall
weather pattern does favor the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms at times, perhaps Thursday across southern South
Dakota, and over much of South Dakota on Friday. While models
support increasing instability, the deep layer shear is lacking.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF cycle
with the exception from late this afternoon through about mid-late
evening tonight. A cold front will sweep through the area during
that time and kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will mainly affect KMBG to KABR/ATY terminals. MVFR vsbys
will be possible in the heavier showers/storms. Gusty southerly
winds through this afternoon will switch to the west to northwest
behind the cold fropa and then turn gusty once again by late
Sunday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Vipond