698
FXUS63 KABR 010814
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southeast winds will gust to around 35 mph across the area east
  of the Missouri River today.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this
  afternoon and evening. The main threats with the stronger storms
  will be large hail and strong wind gusts, but a tornado cannot
  be ruled out.

- The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists
  through the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Upper level ridging currently over the region will get pushed east
today as a trough approaches from the west. Shortwave energy will
ride up the east side of the trough and over the Northern Plains
this afternoon and tonight before the trough becomes centered over
the region on Tuesday.

At the surface, the CWA is currently between high pressure to the
east and low pressure to the west. The gradient between these two
systems remains fairly tight, which is keeping wind speeds up even
through the overnight hours. The stronger winds (gusts to around 35
mph) will translate to the central and eastern CWA today. The low,
and its associated frontal boundary, will be over the western part
of the state to start today. Moisture being pulled northward ahead
of the front may aid in some rain shower activity across the central
and eastern CWA this morning. The front will then track across the
CWA this afternoon and evening, and aided by 1500-2500 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 40 to 60 knots of bulk shear, will likely be the focus
for thunderstorms. CAMS indicate this development starting west of
the Missouri River around 20Z, then tracking eastward across the the
CWA through about midnight or so. SPC has highlighted the entire
area in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with large hail and strong
wind gusts being the main threats. The area will then see mainly dry
conditions overnight through the day Tuesday as weak high pressure
settles in behind the exiting front.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s along the
Sisseton Hills region, to the lower 80s west of the Missouri River.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs
on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tuesday evening, we are still in an upper level trough pattern and
will continue in this pattern through the end of the period.
Thursday, a low pressure system rides south along the trough. Models
have moved this back about 12 hours from the previous run and also
shifted the center of the low slightly south and more into SD. The
EC moves the low out the fastest, putting it over eastern MN by
Friday afternoon. The GFS is the slowest with the center still over
eastern SD Friday afternoon. Sunday, the GFS and Canadian show a
shortwave moving across the region.

The first PoPs of the period start Thursday morning ahead of the low
pressure system. 60-80% chances start over western and central SD in
the morning and slowly spread north and east through the day until
the entire area north of I-90 is plastered with 65-85% chances. With
these chances in the afternoon and evening comes the chance for some
storms. It is hard to say if any storms will become severe. Chances
reduce to around 40% and last through early Saturday morning. Late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, ahead of that next
shortwave, some 20-40% PoPs come back.

Fewer days this term will be below average and more right around
average. Thursday will be the coolest with highs in the low to mid
70s. Otherwise, highs will generally be in the high 70s to mid 80s.
Wind gusts are expected to stay below 25 mph through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to persist until later this morning, at
which point MVFR/IFR stratus is forecast to materialize as low level
moisture increases into the region on strong low level jet winds of
25 to 40 knots a few thousand feet off the surface. Low level wind
shear is in the KABR TAF as a result of these strong winds off the
surface. With the onset of daytime heating/mixing later today, these
strong winds will mix down to the ground as southerly winds of 10 to
20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

There could be a shower or thunderstorm at/near KMBG Monday morning
(~11Z to 15Z). Otherwise, the forecast should be dry until
increasing chances for convection begin to develop at all four
terminals after 21Z Monday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin