015
FXUS63 KABR 040254 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
954 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active pattern continues with showers and thunderstorms
  expected through Tuesday night. Any additional heavy rain east
  of the James Valley maintains a flood threat due to saturated
  soils.

- There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms each day
  through Tuesday for portions of the area from the James Valley
  west. Strong winds will be the primary threat each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Had a couple hours of busy weather across south central SD, with a
few cells producing quarter to half-dollar size hail, along with
very heavy rain. Activity has quieted down somewhat, but still
dealing with convection across the southern CWA and will make more
adjustments to PoPs over the next few hours. Also noticing VSBY
down to 6SM in KABR, but previous forecast does have mention of
fog late tonight into early Monday morning. May expand mention of
fog a bit in areal coverage overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly cloudy and temperatures are
in the 60s and 70s (Pierre`s up to 80F degrees). Winds are from the
south around 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. A few lingering
showers are over the far northeast corner of the CWA moving east-
northeast into Minnesota.

Tonight through Monday night, there is a 20 to 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the central/eastern
forecast zones, tied to the two circulations over west central
Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. The best shear and instability
in the period is Monday afternoon through late Monday night further
west across and west of the Missouri River valley, where non-CAM
model solutions currently generate night-time thunderstorms,
presumably off lee-of-the-Rockies/Black Hills surface low pressure
troffing when the low level jet pointing toward the western Dakotas
gets going.

Near surface smoke has pretty much dissipated/advected north out of
the CWA. Smoke aloft has pretty much moved out of the area, too.
However smoke model guidance does show another round of western
CONUS wildfire smoke aloft working into the CWA on Monday. A lot of
uncertainty surrounds whether or not smoke aloft will persist into
Tuesday. Temperatures through Monday night should near to slightly
below normal.

The forecast flow pattern aloft (ensemble clusters analysis) remains
relatively unchanged; an upper level ridge to the west of the CWA
will move over and east of the region through Thursday night. 594dm
heights are progged to remain just south of the CWA throughout this
period of height rises. From Friday onward, 500hpa heights begin to
gradually decrease as a longwave trof off the west coast moves
inland past the intermountain west onto the northern high
plains/northern plains region by the end of the period.
Precipitation chances (ensemble qpf clusters analysis) continue, at
a premium, in the out periods. The highest PoPs (40-65%) are
currently anchored on Tuesday night, covering the majority of north
central and northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. Will
monitor trends for smoke aloft on Tuesday onward during the next
several shifts.  Ensemble 850hpa temp anomalies and deterministic
low level thermal progs show the warmest air in the 7-day are
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures, perhaps, as much as 10 degrees
above normal are possible at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Areas of MVFR CIGs are expected across the region through the TAF
period. There is some potential for BR/FG early Monday morning in
the KABR area and have inserted mention of this. Also seeing
widely scattered SHRA/TSRA across the region into the evening
hours, but thus far staying away from terminal space. Will
continue to monitor any may need to add mention of this at some
point in the evening. Any heavier showers are capable of MVFR
CIGs/VSBY and wind gusts over 40 knots.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...TMT