197
FXUS63 KABR 280540 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chances for showers (40-65%) Friday night/Saturday
  with the higher moisture potential in western/south central
  South Dakota.

- Fog possible Thursday and Friday mornings with visibility less
  than 2 miles.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 849 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Not anticipating any significant changes to the forecast going
into the overnight period. There`s really only one thing of
concern and that is fog development. Still expecting our eastern
zones will see it set in early Thursday morning. It could become
dense at times, especially around the Watertown/Big Sioux
Valley/Glacial Lakes areas, but even as far west as parts of the
James Valley too. So, we`ll continue to monitor observations and
trends heading into the late night hours for any changes that may
need to be made.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Weak thunderstorms have developed in western MN this afternoon along
a warm front that stretches back into east central SD. There is a
marginal risk that clips Deuel and Hamlin counties along this
boundary, but hi-res CAMs are all pretty consistent on keeping
further development in the cu field to the east and south of this
cwa. Will need to monitor but kept pops below a mention for now.
Generally benign conditions are expected through Friday afternoon
except for some morning fog that could be dense at times with
dewpoints in the 60s. A weak frontal boundary sets up along the
SD/NE border on Thursday, but any activity should remain away from
this forecast area.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase with shortwave energy and a
sfc low in northwest NE Friday afternoon and evening. The unsettled
weather spreads east and north Friday night into Saturday with mid
level low pressure along the Hwy 14 corridor. That 700 mb low along
with an upper low linger into Sunday across the east keeping some
precip and cooler temps in the forecast.

Northwest flow is then expected through the early part of next week
as a pronounced upper ridge sets up over the Rockies. Further
chances for precip return Tuesday night into Wednesday with more
autumn-like highs (60s to lower 70s - about 10 degrees below average
for early Sept) possible by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, aside from any
FG/BR that develops early this morning. KABR/KATY terminals have
the best chance for seeing this by daybreak, with MVFR/IFR VSBY
possible. The fog should burn off by mid morning Thursday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...TMT/Vipond