143
FXUS63 KABR 222138
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
338 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There`s a 20-40% chance for measurable snow accumulations (less
  than 1 inch) late Thursday night through Friday morning. Little
  to no impacts expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Cold front continues to advance southward across the southern CWA,
with temperatures having fallen several degrees down into the teens
and 20s behind the front. A somewhat better organized broken line of
light to moderate snow accompanied the front, and had previously
adjusted PoPs higher. Now though, radar shows this area of snow
moving through/south of the Hwy 14 corridor. Cold air advection
continues throughout the night, with 925mb temps finally bottoming
out between -11C and -20C by 12Z Thurs. The coldest readings are
across the far eastern CWA, where overnight lows should fall into
the single digits below zero unless any cloud cover prevents that
from happening. Cloud cover forecast is a bit tricky overnight in
determining how much areal coverage of lower clouds there will be,
and if/when they decide to scatter/clear out. There should at least
be a clearing trend over the eastern CWA later this evening as
evidenced by recent satellite trends over eastern ND. Any diurnally
driven cloud development should go away after sunset as well.

Thursday into Thursday night surface high pressure moves through the
region, then departs by night as low pressure moves into the western
Dakotas. As this system moves into the region late Thursday night,
it appears some light snow is possible (30-40% chance for
measurable) across north central SD. Looking like a light precip
event as NBM probs for 1 inch or greater snowfall is only around 10%
or less (mostly less).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Still not a whole lot going on in the long term. Friday morning will
start the period with northwesterly winds aloft and a trough pattern
moving in. Northwesterly to westerly winds aloft are expected to
continue through the end of the period. Friday morning, areas along
and east of the James River have a 15-30% chance for some light
snow. A dusting to a couple tenths is all that`s expected to
accumulate. Friday, a surface low is expected to pass across the
area bringing a couple fronts generally west to east. This is
expected to last at least into Saturday morning. High pressure will
move in to our south on Sunday but we return to generally
northwesterly flow at the surface for Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures through the weekend will be up and down a
bit before starting to even out for next work week. The warmest day
with some confidence still looks to be Friday with highs above
freezing for most of the forecast area. The 25-75 percentile range
from NBM for highs Monday and Tuesday show above freezing, but to
what degree is uncertain with ranges of 10+ degrees. We should be
able to start nailing this down in the next couple days. Winds
during the period look to be strongest Friday and Saturday as those
fronts move through. Gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible mainly west
river Friday and then spread east to cover most of northeastern SD
on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of MVFR and low end VFR CIGs are forecast through the TAF
period. Areas of -SN/-SHSN will also drop south across the area
through the day, with potential for brief MVFR VSBY at times.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT