


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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067 FXUS63 KABR 062328 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 628 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-80 percent on Monday and Monday night. Some storms could be severe and capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. There remains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across parts of central and northeast South Dakota. - Additional chances for thunderstorms and the potential to see more severe weather Thursday night into Friday. - Seasonal temperatures are expected during the 7 day forecast, with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday, when high temperatures could bump back up into the low to mid 90s throughout and west of the James River valley. && .UPDATE... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Leftover cirrus from this morning`s showers and storms across south central and southwest SD continues to work across our eastern zones this afternoon. A field of CU has developed in daytime heating, mainly across central SD this afternoon as temperatures have warmed to around the 80 degree mark. Mostly zonal mid level persists across the Northern Plains, with one shortwave trough departing the region to the east and our next weather maker already showing up across parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some perturbation in the mid level flow still remains present across the Dakotas this afternoon and evening and it may interact with the current CU field and pop up a couple of isolated showers and storms late this afternoon into the evening across north central SD. Not expecting any organized severe weather with this activity. Most of the overnight hours should remain relatively quiet as temperatures fall to a few degrees either side of 60. That next shortwave trough will track into the Northern Plains on Monday and Monday night. Lee side troughing continues to persist to our west and this in combination with an associated sfc low and trailing cold front will be the impetus for another round of convection by late morning through Monday evening across our forecast area. As this system organizes to the west, low level moisture return will take place across the western Dakotas tonight into Monday morning and then be drawn farther north and east as the system approaches. Sfc dew point temperatures will be back into the low to mid 60s by midday and afternoon. Daytime heating will to an unstable atmosphere by the afternoon as MLCAPE values climb to between 2000-3000 J/kg. Robust 500mb flow will yield favorable deep layer shear values of 30-40 kts. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late morning and midday and progress eastward and eventually southeastward along and ahead of the sfc frontal boundary. SPC has highlighted a good portion of central and northeast SD with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. The main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. This system is progged to clear the forecast area by late Monday evening/early overnight. High pressure building in on Tuesday will give our area a brief drying trend that will last through most of Wednesday. However, the next upper wave will make its way into the region by Thursday with another round of more showers and storms expected by at that time frame. Another round of severe weather is anticipated Thursday and Thursday night as another low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries work through the Dakotas. SPC has highlighted the Day 5 severe weather outlook with a 15% area across central SD. The buildup to this next round of active weather will be an upper ridge building across the region that will lead to a couple of days of warm to hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points back into the 60s to around 70 degrees Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. A cold front sweeps through on Monday bringing the chance for thunderstorms to KMBG and KPIR in the afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...Vipond AVIATION...20