036
FXUS63 KABR 241719
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather to continue through at least Thursday night.

- Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal through
  Monday, before returning to near normal values Tuesday through
  at least Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Flat fair weather cumulus clouds have been more robust than
originally anticipated, and the forecast has been updated as a
result. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track with few
adjustments anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

No real change in the forecast with northwest flow over the region
in an ongoing +PNA pattern. Clusters indicate this ridge broadening
and pushing only slightly east by the middle of next week as we then
transition to more of a messy omega block pattern through at least
the end of next week and possibly into next weekend as this ridge
will park itself over much of the central and western CONUS through
Canada. At the surface a high pressure system will be dominant over
the region through Tuesday before shifting southeastward and over
~central IL by Wednesday morning. This will keep conditions dry and
quiet well into the middle of the week with chances of precip (NBM
20-30%) not really returning until the end of next week over
portions of central SD per a lee low/frontal boundary.

Unseasonably cooler air aloft continues on the backside of this mid
level low to our east as NAEFs indicates temps from 500 to 850mb run
about 1 to 2 standard deviations below climo through Tuesday before
we start to see temps return to near normal by midweek. Add in the
high pressure directly over the region and temps for today and Monday
will only range in the mid 60s to the upper 70s (5-15 degrees below
average), coolest James River Valley and eastward. With little to
no wind and overall clear skies expected overnight (and sun setting
earlier now) radiational cooling will allow temps to fall into the
40s to the lower 50s. If strong enough, we could see temps tank even
colder especially for locations between the Missouri and James River
(closer to the 10th percentile?). EC EFI indicates TMAX for today
and Monday and TMIN for tonight will be between -0.7 to -0.9, lowest
over the eastern half of SD with a shift of tails of zero in this
area. Temps will rebound Tuesday through the end of the week as the
high shifts southeastward and southerly flow at 850mb returns.
Forecasted highs will range back in the 70s and 80s which is around
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and relatively light winds will continue over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...06