544
FXUS63 KABR 101532 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1032 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke (aloft and near-surface) from Canadian wildfires returns
  to the region on today, with noticeable concentrations (reduced
  visibility) at the ground possible.

- A generally dry forecast next few days, with any mention of
  severe thunderstorms and precipitation in the forecast holding
  off until late next week/next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Continue to watch wildfire smoke drifting southeast across the
Dakotas, now affecting central SD and moving into the James River
valley. Earlier this morning, obs upstream in western ND showed
visibility around 2SM or less. Will be watching observations
closely across central SD. KMBG/KPIR down to 4SM currently, with
potential to get lower. Already updated the HWO to highlight
unhealthy air quality today. Adjusted wx grids as well to hit the
smoke mention a bit harder with definite/widespread wording over
central SD today.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

In the near term, the focus is on a plume of Canadian wildfire smoke
extending down into eastern Montana. Visibilities in that area
are currently running between three and six miles. As such will
continue to forecast those visibilities at the surface as smoke
descends into into western counties through the course of the
morning. We also added additional sky cover to account for the
smoke pivoting eastwards through the course of the day. Low level
flow is westerly which would normally suggest enhanced mixing
however increasing high smoke could offset those favorable mixing
conditions. HRRR and RAP models show that the plume of smoke (both
at the surface and aloft) sits overhead tonight and then begins
its departure on Monday. Low level flow on Monday is
southwesterly so again we have a scenario where enhanced mixing
may be counteracted by the impact of the smoke. As such well
stick with nbm temperatures through Monday.

There is a weak trough passage Monday which will provide some ascent
for convection. NAM BUFKIT show mainly shallow (5-10kft tall)
convection with skinny CAPE.

The broad upper trough begins to depart Tuesday with a shortwave
that traverses Montana potentially generating some weather for us
what late Wednesday into Thursday. During that time we see
increasing temperatures and dew points with the NBM dewpoints back
close to 70 again Thursday afternoon. This is backed up by
AI/machine learning with ncar Medium range convective hazards
forecasting low probabilities for the latter half of next week and
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

While initially VFR, VISBY will eventually decrease to between
2-5 sm with smoke coming in from MT/ND. This smoke persists for
24-36 hours and eventually departs Monday. Smoke aloft will also
result in some sky cover with models depicting highest
concentrations below 10kft.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07