853
FXUS65 KABQ 081940
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
140 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms will favor the central mountain
  chain eastward and southwest mountains today with less activity
  on Wednesday. Increased storms will develop Thursday through
  early next week, especially east of the central mountain chain
  where scattered strong to severe storms will develop.

- There will be a risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area
  burn scars this afternoon through 8 PM.

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the middle and lower Rio Grande
  Valley, northwest plateau, and potentially the Glenwood area
  Wednesday through Friday, and also in Roswell starting Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The monsoon high will stay near the AZ-NM border today and tonight,
jogging slightly westward into Wednesday as it also remains
strong. This will tend to steer storms southward in much of our
forecast area with slightly stronger flow of 10-15 kt at 500 mb
suggesting the pace to be a tad quicker than yesterday, but a few
terrain-anchored storms will still be slow and erratic. Moisture
is best rooted over southern and eastern NM where PWATs are above
0.75 inch and areas southeast of a Ruidoso to Tucumcari line are
above 1.0 inch. The shear is also quite high today over the
eastern half of NM where a Marginal Risk from SPC is outlined.
Southerly low level inflow contrasted by the northerly mid level
flow will create 0-6 km bulk shear of 25 to 35 kt through the
evening, and higher values of deeper layer shear is likely,
especially in the northeast where a 300 mb speed max of 40-50 kt
will help vent any storms there. As for the Sacramento burn scars,
it will be messy with storms surrounding the area, emitting
convective cold pools that will spawn new storms, although no
direct hits are currently being indicated by CAMs. On the western
fringe of the deeper moisture, storms will struggle, but a few
isolated high-based dry storms or virga showers will develop
through the early evening. Storms will fill in toward the
southeastern corner of the forecast area this evening before
mostly dying out by midnight.

While some evening outflows may provide brief upticks in low layer
moisture, the drier air is expected to inch farther east and south
into Wednesday. The high may also gain a decameter of strength
with some capping inversions likely setting up, and this will
reduce the number of storms with temperatures gaining a degree or
two. Storm initiation points would likely not be all that
different than today (southwestern mountains and central mountain
chain), but the coverage should be much lower Wednesday afternoon.
Our Heat Advisory criteria is 100 F in the ABQ metro, and current
forecast package has the valley reaching 99 F, and while it feels
like splitting hairs, we`ll hold off on any advisory issuance for
now. Criteria is higher in Socorro (105 F), so we`ll hold off
there too.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The upper high will get shoved southwestward into Thursday as a
belt of westerlies dips into the central Rockies and ushers in a
shortwave trough. This will introduce stronger 15-25 kt flow at
500 mb over northern NM, giving more shear while some upward
forcing is drawn in. Directional shear will remain high over
eastern zones, and a contraction of a ribbon of moisture over
southwestern to eastern NM will occur, helping to generate
stronger storms along and east of the central mountain chain. A
subtle uptick in isolated to scattered storms over central to
southwestern zones will also occur Thursday. Temperature guidance
still remain quite high for Thursday, making it the hottest day of
the week for several locations before storms reach peak coverage.

The high is modeled to stay displaced well southwest of NM into
Friday with the westerlies over northern parts of the state
relaxing slightly, but not disappearing. This regime will send
drier air farther into more of western NM, but the passage of
Thursday`s shortwave and attendant convection will send a boundary
into the eastern half of the state. Upslope flow and low layer
moisture/surface convergence on the east slopes of the central
mountain chain look to yield the best prospects for storms Friday
with enough shear present for strong to severe cells. A gusty
east canyon wind is then projected for vulnerable central NM
locales as moist outflows surge westward Friday night through
Saturday morning.

The upper high should stay positioned over southern CA and nearby
Pacific waters this weekend and early next week, keeping less
subsidence over NM and allowing moisture to gradually creep a bit,
but generally stay rooted over southern and eastern NM. The
GFS/GEFS solutions really like this scenario, boasting higher QPF
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday over eastern zones with more subdued
amounts from the ECMWF/ENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along
the central mountain chain of New Mexico and also over the
southwestern peaks with activity gradually moving southward and
expanding to some lower elevations east of these areas. Brief
reductions in ceiling and visibility will occur with any
downpours, and gusty downburst winds with small hail will also
accompany storms. Storms will have shifted to the southeastern
quadrant of New Mexico by this evening with most of the activity
coming to an end before midnight. Fewer storms are forecast for
Wednesday, but similar initiation areas (central mountain chain
and southwestern peaks) are forecast again in the early afternoon.
Hot temperatures in the 90`s today and Wednesday will create high
density altitude readings that will produce poor aircraft
performance for some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist today over northwestern
to west central NM where low afternoon humidity of 10-15 percent
will be reached. Outside of these areas, storm chances increase
with the best prospects in the southwestern high country and also
along and east of the central mountain chain through the evening.
A similar area will observe storms again on Wednesday, but with
much less coverage while temperatures gain a degree or two under
the strengthening upper high. Humidity will plummet further in
western zones down to less than 10 percent in many areas with the
middle Rio Grande valley also falling below 15 percent Wednesday
afternoon. Consequently, any storms that are able to develop west
of the central mountain chain Wednesday will likely produce dry
lightning and minimal wetting rainfall. An upper level disturbance
crossing near the NM-CO border will bring an increase in storms
on Thursday, particularly in northeastern to east central NM
where strong cells can be anticipated, but the southwestern
mountains should also trend more active. High pressure will stay
southwest of NM Friday through early next week, keeping deeper
monsoon moisture rooted over the southwest mountains and along and
east of the central mountain chain where scattered to numerous
storms will develop daily. Elsewhere, drier conditions are
forecast with temperatures hovering near to just slightly above
seasonal expectations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  99  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  49  94  51  92 /   0   5   5  10
Cuba............................  58  93  61  93 /   0   5   5  20
Gallup..........................  53  96  57  96 /   0  10  10  10
El Morro........................  56  92  58  91 /   0  20  20  20
Grants..........................  55  96  59  96 /   0  10  10  30
Quemado.........................  58  94  62  93 /  20  20  20  40
Magdalena.......................  64  92  68  93 /  20  20  20  50
Datil...........................  58  90  61  92 /  20  20  20  50
Reserve.........................  56  98  58  97 /  20  30  30  50
Glenwood........................  62 100  63 100 /  30  40  30  50
Chama...........................  49  87  51  86 /   5  20   5  20
Los Alamos......................  63  89  66  90 /  10  20   5  30
Pecos...........................  57  88  59  90 /  20  20  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  55  87  58  87 /  20  20   5  40
Red River.......................  44  79  47  79 /  20  20  10  50
Angel Fire......................  34  81  43  82 /  20  20  10  50
Taos............................  55  90  57  91 /  10  10   5  30
Mora............................  51  84  53  86 /  20  30  10  40
Espanola........................  60  96  63  97 /  20  10   5  20
Santa Fe........................  63  90  64  92 /  20  20   5  30
Santa Fe Airport................  61  94  63  96 /  10  20   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  96  71  98 /  10  20   5  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  97  72  99 /  10  10   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  99  65 101 /  10  10   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  99  70 100 /  10  10   0  20
Belen...........................  66 100  69 101 /  20  10  10  20
Bernalillo......................  66  99  68 101 /  10  10   0  20
Bosque Farms....................  64  99  66 101 /  10  10  10  20
Corrales........................  66  99  68 101 /  10  10   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  65  99  68 101 /  10  10  10  20
Placitas........................  66  96  67  98 /  10  10   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  67  98  70  99 /  10  10   0  20
Socorro.........................  69 100  72 102 /  20  20  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  91  63  93 /  10  20   0  20
Tijeras.........................  63  93  66  95 /  10  20   5  30
Edgewood........................  57  91  60  93 /  10  20  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  92  56  94 /  10  20  10  30
Clines Corners..................  58  87  60  89 /  20  20  20  30
Mountainair.....................  59  91  63  93 /  20  20  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  60  90  62  92 /  20  20  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  65  92  67  94 /  30  30  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  53  85  57  88 /  30  30  20  40
Capulin.........................  55  87  56  87 /  30  20   5  60
Raton...........................  55  91  56  91 /  20  20   0  50
Springer........................  55  92  57  94 /  20  20   5  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  87  57  89 /  20  30   5  30
Clayton.........................  63  93  66  94 /  20  20   5  30
Roy.............................  58  90  62  91 /  20  20   5  40
Conchas.........................  64  96  67  99 /  20  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  62  93  65  97 /  20  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  63  95  67  96 /  30  20  10  20
Clovis..........................  65  94  67  96 /  40  10  10   5
Portales........................  64  94  67  97 /  40  10  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65  95  68  97 /  30  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  69  98  71 102 /  30  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  63  92  64  96 /  30  20  20  20
Elk.............................  61  89  62  92 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52