146
FXUS65 KABQ 081738 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1038 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1023 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

 - Daytime highs will be in the 20s to near 40 degrees for the
   next couple of days. Prolonged exposure to very cold wind
   chill temperatures could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

 - Slick road conditions will persist today with some light
   accumulations. Another round of snow for southern and eastern
   areas Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Slick road conditions will remain as light snow continues to make
its way southward and cold arctic air keeps temperatures near
freezing for many areas. Overall minor accumulations of snowfall
today for southern areas as the system digs south and we enter a
short lull in the weather. Chances for snow return on Thursday as
the system begins to make its way out of the region. Light
accumulations for eastern NM with higher amounts near the Sacramento
and Capitan mountains. Windy conditions for northeast NM at the end
of the day on Thursday as well. Conditions clear on Friday and
temperatures warm back up near normal on Saturday. Breezy westerly
winds will affect the central mountain chain and central high lands
during the day on Saturday. Temperatures cool again with another
front on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

The upper level low will continue to sag slightly southward today
over the Baja Peninsula. As the low pulls away, a col will move over
NM, resulting in very little upper forcing and thus snow will come
to a gradual end today. One last band of snow is expected to impact
southern areas from the Southwest Mtns to the South Central Mtns and
Roswell this morning, but most areas will see less than an inch of
snow. Latest model guidance suggests this band will struggle to
reach De Baca County, so have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory
there. Much of this snowfall has already started and guidance
suggests it will end by noon, so have adjusted the start and end
times of the remaining advisory. Otherwise, the main concern today
is the continued bitter cold. Most areas today will struggle to get
above the freezing mark, so any snow that fell yesterday and
overnight will likely not melt. That may mean continued slick roads
for those areas that did not get treated.

Generally quiet conditions are expected tonight as the col remains
overhead. A few light snow showers are possible across the southern
edge of the CWA. Low temperatures will be cold with single digits
and teens common. Most areas will be near to a few degrees below
normal.

Meanwhile, the next system will be diving southward over the Rockies
tonight. The upper level trough will deepen into a closed low as it
enters NW NM early Thursday. An associated backdoor cold front will
enter NE NM Thursday morning before plowing southward through the
afternoon. Northerly wind gusts near 40 mph will be possible,
especially across northeast NM. The resultant upslope onto the Raton
Ridge will allow snow to develop over and just east of I-25. Between
2 and 5 inches of snow are currently anticipated in this area.
Little, if any, snow is expected just south of this area, but later
in the afternoon, a band of snow is expected to develop from south
central NM eastward to the Texas border on the nose of a H7 speed
max. A few Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed, mainly
across the Sacramento Mountains, eastern Lincoln and SW Chaves
counties, but will hold off until the current advisories expire
this morning. More on this system in the long term section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

By the time Thursday evening rolls around, NNE winds continue to
ramp up along the eastern plains during and steered southwest
towards a low pressure center in the Gila region. Bumped up winds
closer to higher end of guidance, with recent MOS guidance showing
near Wind Advisory speeds of 30 to 40 mph for Raton and Clayton. At
this time, ensembles indicate about a 40% chance of wind speeds
reaching  Wind Advisory criteria, with speeds peaking just after
sunset. Conditions look to also get gusty in canyon gap wind areas
of Socorro and Carrizozo before winds start to die down around
midnight.

The area of highest confidence for snowfall for the Thursday night
through Friday night period is along the Sacramento and Capitan
mountains, where upslope forcing may be able to squeeze out up to 4
more inches before the system makes its exist east by Friday
afternoon. Recent guidance has been trending upwards for snowfall
amounts for these areas, but ensemble analysis only shows about a
50% probability of 24 hr snowfall totals exceeding 4 inches by
Friday morning. Other areas along the eastern plains may receive a
dusting. In any case, slick road condtions will be present,
particularly for cities near the Sacramento mountains such as
Ruidoso, where higher localized amounts will be observed.

Conditions clear throughout the day on Friday, with 500 mb heights
rising and atmospheric flow becoming more zonal. Increasing westerly
flow aloft will bring some gusty conditions for the central mountain
chain and central highlands on Saturday. Winds start to pick up
during the morning hours, and as a result of downsloping winds,
bumped up low temperatures a couple degrees along the eastern
plains. With 700 mb winds peaking near 50 kts, winds at the surface
look to be near Wind Advisory criteria during the afternoon at
typical windy sites such as Vaughn and CQC. Temperatures on Saturday
warm back up to near normal, with downsloping bumping temperatures
up along the eastern plains to slightly above normal.

Another shortwave looks to clip northern New Mexico on sunday and
bring some chances of snowfall for the northern mountains. After
that, the forecast become much more uncertain with some ensembles
favoring ridging and others forming a low pressure system over SoCal
that would steer some moisture in our direction.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Upper low has shifted southward over the northern Baja Peninsula
allowing winter weather over NM to shift to the southern third to
half of the state this hour. LIFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities
are slowly improving in areas along and east of the central
mountain chain. Although, they look to hold onto KTCC for another
hour or so. KROW is already above MVFR ceilings, but overcast
skies will last longer there into the afternoon period. VFR
prevails through the northwestern quadrant of the state including
KABQ to KGUP to KFMN. A second winter system dives southward from
CO as the first system tracks northeastward over northern Mexico.
Both meet over south-central NM during the day Thursday. This
will bring a northerly wind shift through eastern NM Thursday
morning, and increasing snow showers favoring the highlands. Peak
snow shower activity will occur where these two systems meet
through south-central and southeastern NM Thursday, bringing
reduction in categories from low ceilings, visibility and mountain
obscurations from KONM to KSRR to KROW eastward into TX. East
canyon winds pushing through the gaps of the central mountain
chain are expected to begin near or just after 18Z Thursday, so
look for this inclusion at KABQ with the 00Z TAF package.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

No critical fire weather conditions expected for the next 7 days
given cold temperatures and bouts of light snow. Poor ventilation
will be the main concern, particularly today and over the weekend
into next week. Though light snow of a dusting to around an inch
remains possible this morning, a break in the action is expected
from mid day today through mid day Thursday. Thereafter, another
system will bring another round of light snow to the area, though it
will mostly favor areas just south of the Fire Weather forecast
area. Nonetheless, this system will also bring a strong backdoor
cold front Thursday, with winds gusting to near 40 mph across
eastern NM. This front will push through the gaps of the Central
Mountain Chain, though the strongest gap winds will generally be
Socorro southward. This will help keep temperatures well below
normal areawide through Friday, before a brief warm-up on Saturday.
Then another cold front will cool temps for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  14  39  14 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  41   8  37   0 /   0   0  20  10
Cuba............................  37  11  33   8 /   0   0  30  30
Gallup..........................  40   8  35   2 /   0   0  10  10
El Morro........................  35  12  32  10 /   0   0  20  40
Grants..........................  37   9  35   4 /   0   0  20  30
Quemado.........................  38  13  34   8 /  10   5  20  20
Magdalena.......................  32  19  33  13 /  30   5  30  40
Datil...........................  32  16  33  12 /  20   5  30  40
Reserve.........................  46  10  42   5 /  20  10  30  30
Glenwood........................  50  18  46  18 /  30  10  30  30
Chama...........................  35   7  30   2 /   0   0  30   5
Los Alamos......................  34  19  31  14 /   0   0  30  20
Pecos...........................  36  17  33  11 /   0   0  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  34  12  29   5 /   0   0  30   5
Red River.......................  29   5  22   1 /   0   0  40   5
Angel Fire......................  32  -2  25  -3 /   0   0  40  10
Taos............................  36   7  33  -2 /   0   0  20   0
Mora............................  38  14  30   5 /   0   0  20   5
Espanola........................  41  13  38   6 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe........................  35  18  33  14 /   0   0  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  37  16  36  12 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  38  24  37  21 /   0   0  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  39  22  38  18 /   0   0  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  19  39  14 /   0   0  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  22  38  19 /   0   0  20  30
Belen...........................  38  14  40  12 /   5   0  30  30
Bernalillo......................  40  20  39  17 /   0   0  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  39  14  39  11 /   5   0  30  30
Corrales........................  40  20  39  17 /   0   0  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  39  15  39  14 /   5   0  30  30
Placitas........................  36  22  35  19 /   0   0  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  40  21  39  18 /   0   0  20  30
Socorro.........................  38  22  40  16 /  30   5  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  33  18  33  15 /   5   0  30  30
Tijeras.........................  34  20  34  17 /   5   0  30  30
Edgewood........................  32  17  33  12 /   5   0  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  11  35   6 /   5   0  30  20
Clines Corners..................  29  16  30   9 /   5   0  30  20
Mountainair.....................  32  16  32  10 /   5   0  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  32  15  31   9 /  30   5  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  36  20  33  14 /  30  10  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  30  18  32  11 /  50  10  70  60
Capulin.........................  31  14  27   6 /   0   0  40   5
Raton...........................  34  13  31   6 /   0   0  30   5
Springer........................  35  10  32   7 /   0   0  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  33  16  30   8 /   0   0  10   5
Clayton.........................  37  19  32  15 /   0   0  20   5
Roy.............................  33  16  33  13 /   0   0  10   0
Conchas.........................  39  21  38  17 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  34  20  36  15 /   0   0  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  37  22  36  18 /   0   5  30  20
Clovis..........................  36  23  36  20 /   0   5  30  30
Portales........................  37  21  37  19 /   5   5  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  35  18  37  15 /   5   5  30  20
Roswell.........................  34  22  37  25 /  30   5  40  30
Picacho.........................  31  19  37  13 /  40   5  50  40
Elk.............................  31  18  38  11 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24