Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
125 FXUS65 KABQ 241145 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 545 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will increase over northern New Mexico through Monday before expanding to the entire forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. - Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding, especially on recent wildfire burn scars. Other areas which receive repeated rounds of rainfall will also be susceptible to flooding. - Widespread rain and cloud cover will lead to cooler temperatures for the upcoming week. Wednesday may feel more like fall for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Showers will continue for a few more hours tonight before diminishing. After a quiet morning, this afternoon and evening should be similar to yesterday. Storms will develop over the northern high terrain by 19Z before expanding in coverage across much of northern NM by way of outflow boundary collisions through the evening hours. Today differs from yesterday in that there isn`t a boundary moving into northeast NM increasing lower level moisture in the morning, but there is a weak wave sliding across the northeast periphery of the high late this afternoon and evening. This wave should help with somewhat faster storm motions toward the east or southeast today. So with these things in mind, have opted to not issue a Flood Watch for today for the HPCC burn scar, though it is likely the scar will receive additional rain. Based on river gages in the area, the scar seems to be handling the water well from yesterday (and currently). As the aforementioned wave continues to shift into Oklahoma Monday, it will send a backdoor front into northeast NM Monday afternoon which will be reinforced by an outflow boundary from the convection in OK and KS. Behind this boundary, low level moisture will increase and easterly upslope will aid in convective development along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and East Mountains. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be likely (at least along and east of the Central Mt Chain) and storm motions will be slow to the south (variable elsewhere). It`s likely that HPCC will need another Flood Watch. The boundary, aided by any convection that develops across eastern NM, will plow through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Monday evening. Easterly wind gusts near 40 mph are likely in the ABQ metro, but could be as high as 50 mph pending on the strength of the convection to the east. As the boundary pushes westward, additional showers and storms will likely develop along it, though do not expect the activity to be as robust as the 00Z NAM is depicting. Nonetheless, it may briefly enhance the ongoing activity across western NM. Shower and thunderstorm activity across much of northern and central NM will linger through the overnight hours and potentially past sunrise Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 With precipitation lingering through the overnight hours, there may not be a substantial break between that and the new convection on Tuesday. However, given the abundant cloud cover and cooler temperatures, how much instability that storms will be able to tap into Tuesday afternoon is in question. As it looks now, much of eastern NM will be quite stable, while western NM remains unstable, and the central third of the state including the Rio Grande Valley and Central Mountain Chain will still have some modest instability. This will mean that thunderstorm coverage, and the potential for heavier rain rates should be greater across western NM on Tuesday. But the modest instability, weakening H5 heights and plenty of moisture should still allow for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across the northern mountains. If eastern NM receive precipitation, it will likely be later in the day after the atmosphere has more time to recover after Monday`s convection and frontal boundary and may not have much, if any, thunderstorm coverage. The same question regarding instability is valid for Wednesday as well as Tuesday`s activity should linger well into the overnight hours. Though, some models show a little more instability for Wednesday than what was shown yesterday. Nonetheless, it appears central and western NM will be favored for precipitation where the traditional moisture plume is most robust. Flood watches may be needed for portions of the CWA Tue and Wed as rainfall impacts similar areas each day. Westerly flow will begin to nudge into NM on Thursday, shifting the plume over eastern NM and disrupting it. The EC and CMC show weak ridging developing back over southern NM by Friday, which would keep any remaining moisture in place and allow it to be recycled with additional diurnal thunderstorms. The GFS shows a little more westerly flow continuing to nudge in drier air. Mean modeled PWAT values in ABQ Friday afternoon is around 0.85", down from the near 1.2" on Wednesday. Thus, the overall forecast is for storm coverage to decrease after Wednesday, with remaining storms favoring areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Much of the shower activity has diminished early this morning and a break in the action is expected through approximately 19Z. Thereafter, another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the high terrain of mainly northern NM, though a few storms will occur across the west as well. Storms coverage will expand across much of northern NM through the evening hours. Brief heavy rainfall with lowered visibility and gusty outflows near 35kt may accompany any storm. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through 06Z Mon before diminishing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to favor northern NM today, potentially spread a little further south on Monday and then expand to all areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall is likely, and gusty outflows will be a concern each day. Temperatures will decrease through mid week. Thereafter, storm coverage will begin to trend downward for Thursday into the weekend, with storms favoring areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. In addition to the gusty outflow, the other main wind concern is a strong gap wind in the Rio Grande Valley Monday evening where gusts near 40 mph are likely, though could be as high as 50 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 65 89 65 / 50 50 40 60 Dulce........................... 83 49 83 51 / 60 70 70 70 Cuba............................ 82 54 81 55 / 60 70 60 70 Gallup.......................... 86 56 85 55 / 60 40 60 60 El Morro........................ 81 56 82 55 / 70 70 70 70 Grants.......................... 84 57 85 57 / 70 60 70 70 Quemado......................... 84 59 84 57 / 50 50 60 60 Magdalena....................... 84 62 84 60 / 30 30 40 40 Datil........................... 82 57 81 56 / 50 40 50 60 Reserve......................... 88 57 88 55 / 40 30 50 40 Glenwood........................ 91 62 92 60 / 20 20 30 30 Chama........................... 76 47 76 49 / 70 70 70 70 Los Alamos...................... 80 58 78 58 / 60 60 70 70 Pecos........................... 80 55 78 54 / 50 60 70 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 52 75 54 / 70 70 70 70 Red River....................... 69 44 66 45 / 70 70 70 70 Angel Fire...................... 73 39 69 40 / 70 60 70 70 Taos............................ 81 52 79 53 / 60 70 70 70 Mora............................ 77 49 73 49 / 60 60 70 70 Espanola........................ 86 58 85 59 / 50 60 60 70 Santa Fe........................ 82 59 80 59 / 40 60 70 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 85 59 84 57 / 40 60 60 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 68 88 66 / 30 40 60 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 66 90 65 / 30 40 50 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 66 92 65 / 20 40 40 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 67 90 66 / 30 50 40 60 Belen........................... 92 65 93 64 / 20 30 30 50 Bernalillo...................... 90 66 90 64 / 30 50 50 60 Bosque Farms.................... 92 63 92 62 / 20 30 30 50 Corrales........................ 90 67 90 65 / 30 50 50 60 Los Lunas....................... 92 65 92 64 / 20 30 30 50 Placitas........................ 87 64 87 62 / 30 50 50 70 Rio Rancho...................... 89 66 89 65 / 30 50 50 60 Socorro......................... 92 68 94 66 / 20 20 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 59 82 57 / 30 40 60 70 Tijeras......................... 84 61 84 59 / 30 40 60 70 Edgewood........................ 85 57 84 55 / 30 40 60 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 56 86 54 / 30 40 60 70 Clines Corners.................. 81 58 80 55 / 20 40 70 70 Mountainair..................... 84 59 85 57 / 20 20 50 60 Gran Quivira.................... 83 60 85 57 / 20 20 30 60 Carrizozo....................... 85 63 87 62 / 10 10 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 77 57 78 56 / 20 10 20 10 Capulin......................... 79 52 72 52 / 50 70 70 70 Raton........................... 82 52 76 53 / 60 70 70 70 Springer........................ 85 54 79 54 / 50 60 70 70 Las Vegas....................... 80 54 77 53 / 50 60 70 70 Clayton......................... 87 60 78 57 / 20 70 50 70 Roy............................. 84 57 78 56 / 30 60 70 70 Conchas......................... 92 64 87 60 / 20 50 50 60 Santa Rosa...................... 89 63 87 59 / 20 30 40 60 Tucumcari....................... 91 62 86 57 / 5 40 20 60 Clovis.......................... 90 66 89 62 / 5 20 10 40 Portales........................ 91 67 91 62 / 5 20 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 91 67 91 63 / 5 20 10 40 Roswell......................... 94 68 96 67 / 5 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 87 62 89 60 / 10 10 10 20 Elk............................. 83 58 85 57 / 10 10 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34