Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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232 FXUS65 KABQ 161803 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1203 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 - Another period of very dry, warm and windy conditions is on tap Wednesday through Friday with high fire danger and areas of blowing dust, especially Thursday. - Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern areas late Friday through Saturday as a system moves across the state. A few inches of snow accumulation possible across the northern mountains on Saturday. - Warmer and dry weather returns early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Warmer with breezy southwest to west winds Wednesday before very strong southwest winds on Thursday. These winds combined with a very dry and warm airmass will increase the risk for rapid fire spread with the risk highest on Thursday. Cooler areawide Friday and especially Saturday with lower elevation rain showers and mountain snow across western and northern areas late Friday into Saturday as a storm crosses the state. Warmer and drier conditions return early next week. Low chance for storms across the eastern plains && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Early this morning, a weak shortwave trough embedded in increasing southwest flow aloft is interacting with limited moisture across central NM to produce a round of of mostly dry showers and isolated storms. However, the latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air intrusion moving northeast into the region ahead of a Pacific low offshore of SoCal. Significant drying of the atmosphere is forecast through Thursday with increasing southwest flow aloft resulting in a deepening lee side trough, impressive mixing of the atmosphere and strengthening/gusty surface winds. Today will be warmer, especially across eastern NM where downslope winds will help pump temperatures to 10-15 degrees above average. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions will prevail by afternoon, with gusts to between 35-45mph by late afternoon and early evening. Winds will trend up more on Thursday and areas of blowing dust are likely to develop. Added the West Central Plateau, the Estancia Valley and the Upper Tularosa Valley to the High Wind Watch for Thursday as forecast speeds have trended up slightly. Given mixing heights forecast to be an impressive 15kft above ground level and stronger winds aloft across much of central and eastern NM on Thursday afternoon, expect some higher rouge gusts to between 60-70mph by late day with dust getting lofted. Dust Advisories and Dust Storm Warnings will likely become necessary Thursday afternoon. Stronger downslope winds across the east central and southeast plains on Thursday will bring more warming and high temperatures are forecast to reach or exceed daily records at locales such as Roswell, Fort Sumner, Clovis and Tucumcari. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 A positively tilted upper trough over the northern and central Rockies digs further south over the southern Great Basin with the base of the trough closing off into a low over Utah. Temperatures cool down below average across western and northern NM due to the lowering upper level heights along with a backdoor front trying to sneak into far northeast NM during the morning hours. 500 to 700 mb winds around 35 to 50 kts will keep winds pretty gusty with surface wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph along and south of I-40 and along and east of I-25. Rapid fire spread will once again be possible across central and eastern NM due to the winds and very dry airmass still in place. Meanwhile, higher moisture moves southeast over northwest NM closer to the leading edge of the trough axis/ upper low over Utah. This will bring the chance for some lower elevation rain and mountain peak snow. The upper low at the base of the trough pivots southeast towards the Four Corners region Friday night into Saturday morning with guidance depicting a band of rain and mountain snow moving southeast across northwest and west central NM. This band looks to dissipate east of the Continental Divide due to downsloping south of the upper low circulation along the NM/CO border and the preceding dry airmass in place. The backdoor front across very far northeast NM Friday dives southeast across the rest of northeast and east central NM Friday night into Saturday morning helping to increase surface moisture and aid in the development of some showers across northeast NM. Upslope flow from the backdoor front along with lift ahead of the weakening upper low circulation at the base of the trough will result in the development of some lower elevation rain and mountain snow across north central NM early Saturday morning. Now there is some uncertainty to the overall coverage of rain and snow on Saturday due to the overall weakening evolution of the upper low at the base of the trough along with the moistening process as the trough axis moves over. The GFS and NAM depicts less moistening and a slower erosion of the preexisting dry airmass due to less available moisture while the ECMWF and Canadian have more available moisture with the system resulting in a quicker moistening process. Given the very dry preexisting conditions, think the GFS and NAM solution are more realistic so slightly tapered down the NBM PoPs across the region for Saturday. However, enough lift and moisture is being depicted by the GFS to result in a few (2-6) inches of snow across the northern mountains, particularly the Sangre De Cristo and Tusas Mountains. Regardless, with the system overhead and associated cloud cover and precip, Saturday looks chillier with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average. The system exits east into the Great Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning with dry northwest flow and warmer temperatures of 10 to 18 degrees on Sunday in its wake. The warming trend continues early next week with upper level flow becoming zonal on Monday to slightly southwest on Tuesday. Return flow sets up across eastern NM late Monday into Tuesday bringing higher Gulf moisture into this part of the state. This could set the stage for some isolated thunderstorm activity along and east of a developing dryline come Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period. Southwest winds increase across the region this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 25-35kts across the TAF sites. Low (20%) chance to hit AWW criteria at KABQ with 35kt gusts this afternoon between 22z and 01z. Blowing dust may impact KROW throughout the afternoon between 22z and 02z, with less than 25% chance for MVFR visibilities. Moderate chance for LLWS to develop at KTCC and KROW overnight, and a low chance for development at KLVS, owing to surface winds likely remaining near or above 15kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY... More than a handful of dry lightning strikes occurred across western and central NM yesterday and overnight and will be followed by significant drying of the atmosphere and increasing southwest flow as a Pacific dry air intrusion pivots over the region. A fire growth pattern will develop today and continue through Friday, with humidity plummeting and southwest winds ramping up. Thursday will pack the most widespread critical fire weather conditions, with extremely critical conditions likely across much of central and eastern NM where many hours of single digit humidity are likely. An upper level trough/low will approach Friday and result in increasing humidity across northwest NM, but the remainder of the area will likely reach critical threshold. The upper level trough will move over the area Saturday, bringing increased humidity, cooler temperatures and good chances for wetting precipitation across far western and northern NM. A drying/warming trend will begin Sunday and continue through early next week with slowing/backing westerly flow aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 43 71 38 / 5 5 0 10 Dulce........................... 73 37 66 30 / 10 5 0 10 Cuba............................ 75 38 68 32 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 77 34 67 29 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 75 37 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 33 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 77 39 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 80 46 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 76 39 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 36 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 82 38 76 32 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 67 35 60 29 / 10 5 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 74 48 70 41 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 74 44 72 37 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 70 40 65 33 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 60 36 55 28 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 66 32 61 26 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 74 34 69 30 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 72 41 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 80 44 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 47 72 40 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 45 76 39 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 53 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 50 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 48 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 84 49 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 88 44 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 49 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 87 44 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 47 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 87 43 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 52 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 84 50 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 50 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 48 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 79 49 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 46 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 40 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 42 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 48 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 46 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 55 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 53 74 45 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 75 43 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 80 39 79 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 81 42 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 45 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 82 49 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 80 47 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 88 51 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 85 49 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 89 53 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 86 52 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 88 50 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 88 51 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 92 55 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 55 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 56 82 50 / 0 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NMZ205-222>234-239-240. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105-106-109- 121-123>125. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...77/16 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.