199
FXUS65 KABQ 042319 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
419 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 344 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

 - Isolated to scattered light rain and high terrain snow showers
   over southern New Mexico Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

 - A winter storm looks to impact the region early next week with
   impacts including stronger winds, accumulating snow for some,
   and much colder temperatures areawide.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Seasonable temperatures and mostly benign weather expected through
this weekend. A weak system over Arizona and northwest Mexico will
bring low chances for rain and mountain snow to far southern areas
Thursday through Saturday. A storm looks to dive down from the
Pacific Northwest early next week, increasing winds for the central
highlands and eastern plains on Sunday, and then provide the chance
for accumulating snow across the central mountain chain and some
eastern areas late Monday into Tuesday. Colder temperatures areawide
Monday and especially Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 140 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Calm weather remains over the Land of Enchantment as a dry and weak
upper low is centered over AZ. Winds will remain light tonight, with
the exception of a locally breezy northerly drainage wind setting up
at Santa Fe again Thursday morning. Lows will drop into the 10s and
20s across western and northern NM, with 20s and 30s present across
the eastern plains. Temperatures again warm up nicely most areas
with widespread 50s for high temperatures. A few light sprinkles and
showers will try to develop over the southern mountain ranges of NM,
reaching into parts of Catron, Socorro and Lincoln Counties Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Rex block will remain in place over the western U.S. through
Saturday with upper ridging over the Great Basin and central Rockies
and a generally dry upper low over the Arizona, New Mexico and
Mexico borders. A majority of the forecast area will see dry and
mostly clear conditions. However, southern parts of the forecast
area (mainly southern Catron, Socorro, Lincoln and Chaves County
will see the chance for some sprinkles and at most light shower
activity due to being under weak upper level divergence ahead of the
upper low circulation. Any rain and mountain snow accumulation will
be very minimal.

Come late Saturday into Sunday, the upper low over northwest Mexico
weakens, opens up, and gets picked up northeast ahead of an upper
level longwave trough moving south from the Gulf of Alaska to the
Pacific NW and northern Rockies. West northwest winds pick up across
the highlands and eastern plains on Sunday as stronger 700 mb winds
move over the region behind the remnants of the upper low and south
of the longwave trough. 700 mb winds of 40 to 50 kts are being
depicted across the central highlands and far east central plains
Sunday afternoon. Deep daytime mixing could allow some of these
stronger winds to mix down to the surface. In the end, Wind
Advisories might be needed for the Central Highlands and Guadalupe
County Sunday afternoon. These west winds will warm temperatures up
across eastern NM to around 5 to 10 degrees above average.

Deterministic and ensemble cluster guidance depict one of two
scenarios regarding the track and evolution of the upper trough
across the intermountain West early next week. Scenario 1 would be a
weaker open trough tracking southeast from the Pacific NW to the
southern plains. Scenario 2 would be a deeper upper level trough,
potentially closed low, tracking on a more southerly track from the
Pacific NW to around the Four Corners region. Scenario 1 would
result in relatively light snowfall accumulations to north central
and northeast NM late Monday through midday Tuesday. Scenario 2
would result in moderate and potentially heavy snowfall
accumulations across the central mountain chain and eastern NM late
Monday into Tuesday. Precip type will be predominately snow as 700
mb temperatures drop down to -8 to -12 deg C as the system moves
overhead during this time. Regardless of the track, confidence is
high that much colder temperatures move into northern NM Monday and
all areas Tuesday behind the associated cold front. Come Tuesday,
temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for mid December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds. However, a low stratus deck will
likely develop at/near KROW late tonight or early Thursday
morning, but is forecast to remain VFR at this time and generally
between 4-5kt ft agl.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

No critical fire weather concerns thru the forecast period.
Widespread poor ventilation persists each day thru Saturday with
light winds and little vertical mixing. Prevailing westerlies return
Sunday and Monday ahead of a winter system looking to track over NM
Monday and Tuesday. The extent of winter precipitation and impacts
remains uncertain at this time, but snow would favor northern and
northeastern portions of the state Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  26  54  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  18  55  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  24  52  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  18  55  18  53 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  28  52  26  51 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  19  52  20  53 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  23  55  24  53 /   0  20  10  20
Magdalena.......................  30  52  31  50 /   0   5   5  10
Datil...........................  27  52  27  49 /   0  10  10  10
Reserve.........................  22  61  23  58 /   5  30  30  30
Glenwood........................  34  64  34  60 /   5  40  40  30
Chama...........................  21  50  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  31  49  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  28  50  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  26  49  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  42  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  14  46  13  46 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  20  51  19  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  24  51  24  51 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  23  56  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  30  50  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  26  52  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  57  36  55 /   0   0   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  57  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  59  27  58 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  31  56  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  24  57  25  56 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  29  58  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  23  58  24  57 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  29  58  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  25  57  26  56 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  34  54  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  30  57  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  33  60  33  58 /   0   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  50  29  50 /   0   0   5   5
Tijeras.........................  30  52  31  52 /   0   0   5   5
Edgewood........................  25  51  26  52 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  52  21  52 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  25  46  26  47 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  26  52  26  50 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  27  54  26  52 /   0   5   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  36  57  33  53 /   0  20  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  33  48  31  45 /   0  20  20  30
Capulin.........................  25  45  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  22  50  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  21  51  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  25  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  30  52  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  27  47  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  55  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  28  51  30  51 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  27  53  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  32  53  34  53 /   0   0   0  10
Portales........................  30  54  33  52 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  28  53  31  51 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  39  55  42  50 /   0  10   5  20
Picacho.........................  33  51  34  49 /   0  10   0  20
Elk.............................  31  50  32  48 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11