Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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706 FXUS65 KABQ 300805 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Near-record warmth will continue today. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with gusty winds may develop around the higher terrain. A backdoor cold front will enter eastern NM late tonight with cooler high temperatures across northern and eastern NM Tuesday. A period of breezy canyon winds is likely in the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning with gusts near 40 mph on the east side of Albuquerque. The rest of the week will be very warm and dry with mostly light winds. A few sprinkles are still possible each day around the high terrain. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Last day of September will feel much more like the last day of August. Deeper and more widespread than is typical tropical convective activity from the eastern Atlantic westward to the EPAC continues to result in subtropical highs, including the monsoon high over NM, encircling the Northern Hemisphere this morning. A weak wave/speed max and slug of mid level moisture between the monsoon high and a weak closed low over southern CA will result in at least some relief from today`s heat in the form of scattered clouds and a isolated weak showers along with a few thunderstorms, especially mountains. At the same time, a upper level trough sliding east along the U.S./Canadian border today, will send a backdoor front southward down eastern plains tonight. This front is lacking low level moisture, but will provide a cool down for the eastern three quarters of the state Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will trend 10 to 15 degrees cooler east and 5 to 10 degrees cooler for the RGV. East canyon winds into the middle Rio Grande Valley will develop several hours prior to sunrise Tuesday morning will most likely be in the 25-35 mph range, decreasing fairly rapidly by mid morning. The east winds are expected to impact areas along the I-40 corridor from the mouth of Tijeras Canyon to just west of the Big I. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Unseasonably warm weather will continue Wednesday thru Sunday as a strong upper level ridge drifts southeast into NM. A few sprinkles are possible near the high terrain Wednesday thru Friday as a thin layer of mid level moisture is trapped beneath the ridge. Otherwise, very dry conditions with light winds will dominate the region. Large diurnal temperature swings are likely with strong valley inversions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Broken VFR ceilings near BKN110 over the northwest half of NM will continue to slowly dissipate overnight. On Monday, isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will favor the northern mountains and southwest mountains, with isolated, gusty virga showers expected elsewhere. Near record high temperatures varying from around 10 to 15 degrees above 1991-2020 averages will result in abnormally high density altitude for late September/early October. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Long range forecast models keep a form of the monsoon high over and near NM for much of the month of October. A persistence forecast seems in order, although models trend slightly wetter during the latter half of the month. Terrain driven winds will be the rule for much of the next two weeks with an occasional backdoor front moving southward through the eastern plains as upper troughs well to the north send fronts southward east of the Rockies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 89 54 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 86 41 83 39 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 85 49 79 47 / 5 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 87 46 86 45 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 82 51 80 48 / 5 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 87 48 83 44 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 83 50 82 46 / 10 10 10 0 Magdalena....................... 85 54 78 50 / 5 10 0 0 Datil........................... 82 51 78 45 / 10 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 90 50 88 44 / 10 10 10 0 Glenwood........................ 93 61 91 56 / 10 10 10 0 Chama........................... 79 43 77 41 / 10 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 82 55 76 52 / 10 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 82 51 73 48 / 10 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 45 77 46 / 10 5 0 0 Red River....................... 72 38 68 41 / 20 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 74 32 70 31 / 10 5 0 0 Taos............................ 83 43 79 41 / 10 5 0 0 Mora............................ 80 42 72 43 / 20 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 90 51 84 47 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 54 76 51 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 51 79 48 / 5 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 61 81 57 / 5 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 59 83 54 / 5 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 56 85 53 / 5 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 57 84 55 / 5 10 0 0 Belen........................... 93 55 86 49 / 0 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 57 86 52 / 5 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 93 55 85 48 / 5 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 94 57 86 53 / 5 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 93 56 85 50 / 0 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 89 57 81 54 / 5 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 92 58 86 53 / 5 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 95 60 88 54 / 5 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 49 74 49 / 5 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 86 50 77 51 / 5 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 87 46 76 44 / 5 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 46 76 40 / 10 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 82 45 71 45 / 10 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 87 49 76 47 / 5 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 50 77 46 / 5 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 87 57 83 51 / 5 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 80 49 73 46 / 5 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 82 41 69 47 / 5 5 0 0 Raton........................... 86 44 72 42 / 5 5 0 0 Springer........................ 88 45 73 43 / 10 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 44 72 45 / 10 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 89 49 70 55 / 5 5 0 0 Roy............................. 86 48 70 49 / 10 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 90 53 75 50 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 88 53 73 49 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 90 51 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 92 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 92 55 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 90 55 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 95 60 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 90 54 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 89 50 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...33