Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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582 FXUS65 KABQ 061511 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 911 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 909 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 - Cold temperatures with a hard freeze expected this morning. Low temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal for early April. - A rapid warmup with dry conditions expected next week. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal come the middle to latter half of the week. - Breezy to locally windy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. && .UPDATE... Issued at 909 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Freezing fog has diminished across the area, therefore the Freezing Fog Advisories have been cancelled. Also made some small tweaks to the PoPs/Wx this afternoon. NPW already out. Rest of the updates out shortly. && .UPDATE... Issued at 534 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Have added the Northeast Highlands and Sandia/Manzano Mountains to the Freezing Fog Advisory through 10am per surface observations, webcam views, visuals of the Sandias to the east, and reports of a weather-related closure on I-40. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Patchy freezing fog may persist through the early morning hours of Sunday and Monday in places with fresh snowpack. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend begins today and continues through the rest of next week. High temperatures in the 70s will be common through the lower elevation areas. A brief cooldown from a backdoor cold front will limit highs on Thursday for the eastern plains, but then resume through the weekend, where mid to upper 80s will be common. Light winds are generally expected, with some breezy west winds across the region Tuesday, Wednesday, and most of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Impacts from late-season Friday/Saturday winter storm have been a little slow to wane overnight. Water-vapor satellite imagery indicates that the center of the upper-level low has moved into the TX Panhandle with one last moist axis rotating through NM, roughly from the ABQ Metro toward KROW. Snow showers earlier briefly brought visibility as low as 1 3/4 SM at the ABQ Sunport. Angel Fire has fallen to 0F at this hour! Meanwhile, surface obs from KCQC/K0E0 and webcams earlier prompted the issuance of a Freezing Fog Advisory for the Central Highlands and Estancia Valley through 16Z. This may need to be expanded to additional zones as we approach sunrise. Dense freezing fog currently observed at KLVS ASOS, but seems to be fairly localized. Evening shift expanded areas of freezing fog to be rather widespread, given the large footprint of fresh snow. Some uncertainty on timing of this developing, as it will be somewhat of a race between mid clouds clearing out and sunrise, but will keep the weather grids intact. Otherwise, a warming trend commences today, albeit moderated by the widespread precipitation. Moderate (40-50 KT) northerly flow at H25 takes hold ahead of a highly amplified ridge to the west. However, one last H5 vorticity lobe is progged to rotate through the CWA from north-to-south around the middle part of the day. Should be enough moisture to squeeze out a few snow showers along the central mountain chain, but any additional amounts should only be 0.5-1.0 inch. Blended in NBM 25th percentile guidance for temperatures through Sunday night where fresh snow exists. Max temps should still recover 10-15 degrees from Saturday`s. Another cold night in store for Sunday night, with good radiational cooling conditions, apart from winds being unlikely to go completely calm. Many areas will experience a hard freeze again, with the ABQ Metro likely dropping into the lower 30s F. Guidance not particularly bullish on freezing fog formation again, with NBM probabilities for dropping below 2M visibility less than 10%. Have included a smattering of FZFG for the central highlands toward the eastern Plains for now, but this will no doubt need adjustment. Heading into Monday, the ridge axis aloft approaches, with attendant low-level warming noted, especially west of the central mountain chain, as a much drier atmospheric column continues to work in. Valley locations are progged to reach the mid-60s, though still a few to as much 10 deg F below normal on Monday. Lots of sun should make for a pleasant day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Warming continues across New Mexico throughout a bulk of the long term period. We start with breezy conditions across much of the state Tuesday and Wednesday due to stiff upper level west- northwest flow, translating into breezy to locally windy conditions across the region. Additionally, a lee surface trough is forecast to form in the evening hours of Tuesday, though while this may work to enhance some surface winds across the eastern plains, the formation of the trough after peak heating hours won`t allow it to tap into daytime mixing as much. On Wednesday, stiff WNW flow remains, and the surface trough is forecast to form closer to peak heating, thus creating slightly stronger breezes across the eastern plains. A backdoor cold front pushes southward across the eastern plains late Wednesday into Thursday in response to a shortwave tracking across the central Great Plains. The upper level meridional flow gives way to a full ridge of high pressure moving into the weekend. Temperatures are the main story through the long term period. High temperatures for Tuesday begin in the low 70s to low 80s outside of mountainous areas, good for near to 10F above average for early April. Temperatures climb Wednesday before the aforementioned cold front cools off the eastern plains by about 5-8F, leaving the warmest, low to mid 80F highs in the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures then continue to balloon going into the weekend, with highs in the 80s across much of the lower elevation areas, with the lower Rio Grande Valley and southeast plains having a >50% chance to see a high of 90F on Saturday. Some daily record high temperatures may be broken as well. For example, the daily record high for the ABQ Sunport on April 12 (Saturday) is 84F, which the NBM gives a 65% chance of exceeding. It will be quite the contrast from the temperatures the state is currently experiencing. The ridge is favored to begin to break down over the weekend, with breezy to locally windy conditions returning as more meridional flow takes over. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Precipitation has finally largely ended across northern and central NM, except for a few light radar echoes persisting in southern Roosevelt County. This leaves occurrence and timing of IFR/LIFR conditions due to low ceilings and freezing fog through mid-morning as the main aviation forecast challenge. Confidence has decreased on such conditions developing at KFMN and KGUP, where dewpoint depressions are currently about 4F. Mountain obscuration likely to remain at KABQ through much of the morning. IFR/LIFR CIG`s have developed at KSAF, and guidance consistent in cloud base not dropping down to ground level. Visibility has varied between 1/4 and 3SM at KLVS, so have a TEMPO for the worst conditions. Confidence also much lower on FZFG developing at KTCC and KROW, as mid-level clouds, and slightly elevated winds, trending to persist through sunrise. Widespread VFR to return by 18Z, with medium (60-70%) confidence. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Widespread precipitation falling Friday through early this morning should keep fire weather concerns low though the next several days, as well as greening up finer fuels in the eastern Plains. As drier air works in Monday and Tuesday. 20-ft winds notch up in to the breezy category Tuesday and Wednesday, so some locally elevated conditions are possible in the central highlands. More widespread elevated to near-critical conditions could return by Friday-Saturday as temperatures warming to 10-20 deg F above normal lower RH`s while winds pick up with a disturbance passing to the north of NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 28 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 17 62 23 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 45 22 59 28 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 55 17 65 22 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 52 24 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 54 19 65 23 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 23 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 53 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 20 70 26 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 64 28 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 46 18 56 25 / 10 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 47 30 56 36 / 10 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 48 24 57 33 / 10 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 24 57 30 / 10 10 0 0 Red River....................... 36 14 47 26 / 20 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 39 12 52 23 / 10 10 0 0 Taos............................ 51 18 60 25 / 10 5 0 0 Mora............................ 45 19 56 28 / 10 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 55 25 65 30 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 29 58 36 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 27 61 33 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 37 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 30 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 33 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 25 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 32 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 58 32 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 27 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 53 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 33 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 32 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 29 59 36 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 51 30 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 52 23 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 16 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 44 21 56 30 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 50 22 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 50 23 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 31 64 38 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 48 28 59 36 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 23 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 50 20 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 49 19 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 44 20 58 29 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 52 28 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 47 24 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 26 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 25 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 48 26 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 29 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 49 25 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 25 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 52 30 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 28 64 36 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 51 26 64 34 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...53 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Wednesday, April 9.