785
FXUS65 KABQ 301158
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Thunderstorms are forecast to decrease in coverage today, with
most locations east the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, Manzano,
Gallinas and Sacramento mountains remaining dry. Elsewhere
however, another round of mainly late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon. Locally very heavy
rainfall on recent burn scars including the Hermits Peak Calf
Canyon, Blue2, South Fork and Salt burn scars are also expected
in northwest and west- central areas this afternoon where a flash
flood watch is in effect through tonight. Rain shower and
thunderstorm movement today will be to the northeast around 20
mph. The threat for heavy rain continues through Wednesday before
a break arrives Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain chances, however,
return next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Easterly wave and its associated jetlet on the southern end of a
highly anomalous Bermuda high over the Southern Plains made it
approximately 50-75 miles farther westward than forecast
Saturday. As a result, a very active evening of strong to severe
storms made it into the Rio Grande Valley. Rainfall totals of
2.5-3.0" were common in the ABQ metro last night where flash
flooding reports have yet to come into the office. Elsewhere, KFDX
radar estimates near 7.0" between Farley and Sierra Grande at the
Historical Click Ranch seem on the high side based on rain gauge
reports through the night, but an estimated 5"+ will likely lead
to significant rises in the Canadian River downstream east of
Gladstone, down David Hill just south of Bueyeros and eventually
into Ute Reservoir.

Unfortunately for today, another jetlet or wind speed max @ 250mb
on the southern periphery of the Bermuda high is forecast to
slide up from the southeast again today. A late start to
convection is likely given this mornings debris cloud field, but
the heavy to very heavy rain potential returns to locations mainly
along and west of the central mountain chain late this afternoon
and through much of tonight. This includes the HPCC, Blue2, South
Fork, Salt and McBride burn scars. Additionally, a Flood Watch for
Flash Flooding was issued for the northwest plateau and much of
McKinley county including Farmington, Bloomfield, Aztec, Shiprock,
Gallup and Standing Rock this afternoon where strong
thunderstorms producing very heavy rain are likely. Showers and
storms will continue through much of tonight once again as the
above mentioned wind maxima slides north up the RGV.

Models continue to indicate that two jet maxima remain on track
for Monday. The first maxima, associated with the subtropical
jet, moves northeastward from AZ and into the Four Corners area
Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, another easterly wave is progged to
move up into far southeast NM late day Monday. Atmospheric
stretching or deformation between these two jet level features
results in increased atmospheric lift along with a greater
potential for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Global models agree that the highly anomalous trough over the
Western U.S. will force the Bermuda high eastward and allow
increasing west and northwest flow aloft to dry things out
somewhat over northern NM Tuesday and Wednesday while shower and
thunderstorm chances continue central and south. Continued
northwest flow aloft Wednesday night and Thursday will eventually
send a backdoor cold front into eastern NM Thursday night and
Friday, resulting in another marked increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity in eastern NM Friday and over the weekend
elsewhere.

Why so anomalously wet lately? With Atlantic Basin Sea Surface
Temperatures (SSTs) 5 standard deviations above average for much
of late winter and spring, thunderstorm activity in the Gulf of
Mexico and Caribbean in late spring reacted in kind and has been
off the charts. What goes up in the tropics must come down in the
subtropics and lower mid latitudes, leading to a Bermuda High much
stronger than average. Throw in a subtropical and Asian- Pacific
jet stronger than average as well thanks to El Nino and this is
the result. Global models agree that subsidence from increasing
eastern Pacific thunderstorm activity may align with the long wave
northern stream pattern late in the week. Subsidence or sinking
air from EPAC thunderstorms is the monsoon high. This year, it
appears to align with westerly flow aloft that is more robust than
usual and a strong upper high develops over CA and the Great
Basin late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeastward through far northeast NM this morning. In the
northwest third of the state this morning, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue to drift north and northeast during
the morning. Later today, another round of mainly scattered
showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
westward, getting off to another relatively late start during the
late afternoon and continuing through much of tonight. Heavy
rainfall and brief reductions to visibility are likely from any
storm. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in San Juan
and McKinley counties including KFMN and KGUP late this afternoon
with large hail and severe winds the main threats.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The wet pattern of late continues through next week. No critical
fire weather conditions are anticipated during the next week.
Heavy rain and flash flooding remain the main weather threat
during the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  65  84  63 /  70  70  50  20
Dulce...........................  84  52  80  50 /  60  70  60  20
Cuba............................  84  58  78  56 /  40  60  80  40
Gallup..........................  89  57  83  55 /  70  70  60  30
El Morro........................  84  58  78  57 /  50  70  80  40
Grants..........................  87  57  82  55 /  50  60  90  40
Quemado.........................  87  60  81  58 /  40  70  80  50
Magdalena.......................  87  65  83  63 /  20  50  80  40
Datil...........................  84  60  80  59 /  40  60  90  40
Reserve.........................  91  58  88  58 /  40  80  80  40
Glenwood........................  96  68  92  68 /  40  80  70  30
Chama...........................  79  50  74  49 /  70  60  80  40
Los Alamos......................  82  62  79  61 /  40  60  80  40
Pecos...........................  82  61  81  60 /  40  40  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  79  48  76  47 /  50  30  70  30
Red River.......................  73  49  71  48 /  60  30  80  30
Angel Fire......................  74  47  74  44 /  60  30  70  20
Taos............................  83  56  81  54 /  40  30  60  30
Mora............................  79  53  81  54 /  40  30  60  20
Espanola........................  91  63  87  61 /  30  40  60  30
Santa Fe........................  84  63  81  61 /  30  50  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  87  63  85  59 /  30  50  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  68  88  65 /  20  60  70  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  70  89  66 /  20  50  60  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  68  91  63 /  10  50  60  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  69  89  66 /  20  50  60  30
Belen...........................  95  67  92  65 /  10  40  60  30
Bernalillo......................  93  69  90  66 /  20  50  60  30
Bosque Farms....................  94  66  91  62 /  10  40  60  30
Corrales........................  93  70  90  66 /  20  50  60  30
Los Lunas.......................  94  68  91  65 /  10  50  60  30
Placitas........................  89  67  87  63 /  20  50  60  30
Rio Rancho......................  92  69  89  66 /  20  50  60  30
Socorro.........................  97  71  95  69 /  10  40  60  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  63  82  61 /  20  50  60  30
Tijeras.........................  86  60  85  59 /  20  50  60  30
Edgewood........................  86  59  86  58 /  20  40  60  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  58  86  58 /  20  40  50  30
Clines Corners..................  82  58  82  58 /  20  40  40  30
Mountainair.....................  88  60  85  59 /  20  40  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  88  61  86  60 /  30  40  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  91  66  90  67 /  30  30  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  82  60  82  61 /  60  20  40  20
Capulin.........................  80  60  84  59 /  40  10  30  10
Raton...........................  84  58  87  58 /  50  10  30  10
Springer........................  87  60  89  60 /  40  10  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  79  59  81  59 /  30  20  50  20
Clayton.........................  87  68  92  68 /  30  10   5  10
Roy.............................  84  64  87  64 /  30  10  20  10
Conchas.........................  92  69  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  89  67  90  67 /  10  10  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  95  70  96  71 /   5   5   0  10
Clovis..........................  95  69  96  70 /   0   5   0   5
Portales........................  95  70  97  71 /   0   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  94  71  95  70 /   0   5  10  10
Roswell.........................  99  75 101  75 /   0   5   5  10
Picacho.........................  90  66  93  65 /  20  10  20  10
Elk.............................  89  61  91  62 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for
NMZ201>203-205-206-210-211-213>215-226-227.

Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ214-215-
221>223-226>232.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...33