Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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060 FXUS65 KABQ 162336 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms also accompanying in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Pleasant weather continues this afternoon across northern and central NM with fairly standard afternoon spring breezes persisting into the early evening hours. An upcoming deepening troughing pattern over the western CONUS will begin to take shape tonight into Saturday morning. This will act to eject an opening shortwave trough over NM through the day Saturday. This will increase southwesterly winds over the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately this weakening weather system will have near zero precipitation associated with it. Numerical model guidance however is picking up on sufficient mid-level moisture being realized as a few isolated virga showers crossing over south-central and southeastern portions of the forecast area late Saturday morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings from Socorro to Roswell display steep inverted-V signatures, indicative of a good chance these virga showers producing stray and erratic strong wind gusts from Socorro through at least Lincoln County and potentially as far east as De Baca and Chaves County. Otherwise, areas further north will see increased winds and increasing high cirrus cloud coverage. Winds diminish Saturday evening and night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 A sharp upper level trough crossing UT and AZ early Sunday will shift northeastward on Sunday afternoon, driving the upper level jet squarely over NM. Despite cold air advection occurring through the day, strong mixing is still expected. H7 winds of 25 to 35 kt should easily mix to the surface. Additionally, an associated surface low will deepen to near 990mb across eastern CO which will increase the surface pressure gradient across NM. All-in-all, it should be a windy day nearly areawide, though the strongest winds are expected along and east of the Central Mountain Chain where west to southwest gusts up to 45 mph will be common. Localized areas of blowing dust may occur in dust-prone areas, including Roswell. After the initial trough departs late Sunday, another upper low will slide southward across Utah Sunday night, then eastward along the NM/CO border on Monday as it gradually fills. The upper level jet should move over the southern half of NM, thus the strongest winds on Monday should be near and south of I-40. Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across northern NM. Wetting precipitation will be spotty, but the showers and thunderstorms will help drive a potent Pacific front through the area. Expect gusty winds along and behind the front as it races from northwest to southeast, as well as with any convective activity. High temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal across western NM and up to 10 degrees below normal across eastern NM. The upper low will exit the area Monday night, then quieter conditions are expected for the mid week period. The backdoor segment of the front will arrive Monday night and early Tuesday. It should be relatively weak, but will introduce a slight uptick in low level moisture across eastern NM. A stronger push may come Tuesday night, but any moisture intrusion should stay east of the Central Mountain Chain. Upper level flow will be weakening through the period and H5 heights will be rising. Thus, not much wind through the mid week period, and temperatures will climb each day Tuesday through Thursday. All areas should be near to above normal again by Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Southwest to west breezes across eastern NM taper off around sunset with light and terrain dominated winds overnight. A blanket of high clouds move across southern and eastern areas late this evening into tomorrow morning ahead of a weakening Pacific low moving across the U.S. and Mexico border. These high clouds and the disturbance exits east mid to late morning with southwest winds ramping up areawide in its wake. The strongest winds with gusts of 30 to 35 kts will exist across south central and eastern TAF sites during the afternoon hours. Gusts of 20 to 30 kts will be common everywhere else. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RAMPING UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... Southwesterly winds begin to pick up in strength beginning Saturday afternoon while a weakening weather system crosses the state through the day. A few virga showers producing stray and erratic strong gusts across portions of Socorro and Lincoln Counties is on tap tomorrow as well. This, combined with the high confidence for single- digit humidity lasting 6 to 12 hours in the middle Rio Grande Valley along with forecast southwest winds increasing to 20-25 mph sustained will produce several hours of critical fire weather conditions through those areas Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditons continue Sunday as southwesterly winds strengthen further, expanding over western and central portions of the forecast area. Monday sees one more round of critical fire weather conditions, being pushed over southern and eastern portions of NM while cooler and wetter weather advance into northwestern and northern portions of the state. The fire weather threat abates Tuesday as a cold front pushes through eastern NM and temperatures trend down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 79 49 69 / 0 0 0 40 Dulce........................... 30 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 40 Cuba............................ 40 74 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 33 75 40 68 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 39 72 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 77 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 76 45 74 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 42 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 78 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 83 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 34 69 35 58 / 0 0 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 48 73 46 67 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 44 73 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 35 61 35 55 / 0 5 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 30 68 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 35 74 38 68 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 39 73 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 43 81 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 74 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 78 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 81 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 82 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 84 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 84 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 41 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 83 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 52 86 49 85 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 75 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 77 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 78 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 78 51 78 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 73 49 72 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 73 42 72 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 40 78 41 77 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 39 78 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 76 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 86 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 89 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 54 83 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ106-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ106-109-124-125. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71