Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
554 FXUS65 KABQ 132342 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 542 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low- lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of precipitation occur through Tuesday night. The flash flood risk will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond crosses the state, isolated flash flooding remains a concern, especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso. Elevated flows in main stem rivers across northwest New Mexico will continue. - Dry and breezy conditions will return Thursday through the end of the week. - Freezing temperatures are expected for much of northern, western and portions of central New Mexico Friday morning. This will be the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. Should these areas not freeze Friday morning, a higher probability for the first freeze will exist for these zones along with the northeast highlands on Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Moisture from the remnants of T.S. Raymond are currently expanding northward across western NM, and numerous showers are noted across southwest NM. These showers, and those in eastern AZ, will expand across much of western and central NM through the afternoon and evening. Instability continues to be lacking, but a few breaks in the clouds early this afternoon and the resultant heating should allow for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The window for thunderstorms should largely close around sunset however. Precipitation will expand across eastern NM overnight as top-down moistening occurs, and this precipitation will continue through the morning hours on Tuesday. Many areas should receive between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of precipitation through noon Tuesday, though a few locations will receive over an inch where stronger storms and/or repeated rounds of precipitation occur. The backdoor front that pushed through the plains and the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain this morning is located near the east slopes of the Western Mountains, and may provide a focus for repeated rounds of showers through the evening. Of particular concern are the rivers across San Juan County. Elevated flows are already occurring due to heavy precipitation across Colorado a few days ago, and though river levels have come down a bit since yesterday, today`s precipitation will allow rivers to rise once again. Bankfull or near bankfull levels are expected on the Animas River in Farmington through Tuesday night, and very high flows will also continue on the San Juan River. While the moisture from former T.S. Raymond will shift northeast and out of NM Tuesday afternoon, enough moisture will linger across NM to allow for scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to form again Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation will be focused along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain, but isolated areas in the Rio Grande Valley will pick up rain as well as showers and storms form along a mid level moisture gradient. Mid-level lapse rates will remain near moist adiabatic, so thunderstorms will again be limited, but the best chances for thunderstorms look to be across south central areas where models indicate greater instability will be present. Precipitation should linger well into the evening and overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The next upper level low will dive down the CA coast on Monday turn east across the Great Basin on Tuesday, before slowly lifting northeastward through Utah on Wednesday. Ascent associated with this feature will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across NM. The greatest forcing looks to be over north central areas, and that is where PoPs are focused. With the tropical moisture influence lessening, and temperatures trending upward, we should see a healthy mix of showers and thunderstorms. Given there is abundant shear and modest instability, a few strong or perhaps a stray severe storm will be possible. Gusty winds and hail will be the main concerns. The trough axis and an associated surface front will slide across NM Wednesday night through Thursday. Much drier air behind trough axis will press into western NM and with daytime heating Thursday, much of the low level moisture should mix out. However, before all the moisture is scoured out of eastern NM, isolated storms may develop near the Texas border. These storms may again be strong or briefly severe. Elsewhere, dry, breezy and cooler conditions will be the rule behind the front. Quiet conditions will prevail for the end of the week through the weekend. Below normal temperatures on Friday will warm to near seasonal averages by Sunday. The drier conditions will allow temperatures to plummet at night. We`re still expected the first freeze for the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains, and portions of the Northwest Plateau on Friday morning. These same areas as well as the lower Chama River Valley and areas near Raton should experience another freeze Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Showery weather will persist overnight with activity initially being focused in western to central areas. A few thunderstorms will even be observed through the early evening with stronger wind gusts and brief downpours accompanying. Rain will be shifting more to central and northeastern sections of New Mexico late tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday with lots of low stratus clouds and patchy fog filling in behind over rain-soaked areas. This will lead to scattered to widespread areas of MVFR ceilings (less than 3000 ft) and MVFR visibility (less than 5 miles). Spotty IFR ceilings (less than 1000 ft) and IFR visibility (less than 3 miles) will be concentrated along and near the central mountain chain through the mid morning Tuesday. Ceilings and visibility will slowly improve into the early afternoon Tuesday with new showers and storms redeveloping over central New Mexico by the mid to late afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 No fire weather concerns this week. Tropical moisture will cross NM through early Tuesday, with showers and isolated storms impacting most of the area. Wetting rainfall is likely. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday near and east of the Central Mtn Chain, Wednesday across north central NM, and Thursday across far eastern NM. Thereafter, drier conditions will prevail. A cold front crossing the state on Thursday from west to east will bring cooler temperatures. The first freeze for some low elevations locales are expected Friday and/or Saturday morning. RH values will gradually trend lower late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 73 53 72 / 80 20 10 20 Dulce........................... 45 69 45 69 / 100 40 40 60 Cuba............................ 49 68 50 69 / 90 30 30 50 Gallup.......................... 49 71 44 70 / 70 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 47 69 46 71 / 70 5 0 10 Grants.......................... 49 72 48 75 / 80 10 10 20 Quemado......................... 49 70 48 72 / 60 5 0 5 Magdalena....................... 53 70 54 72 / 60 20 30 10 Datil........................... 49 68 49 71 / 60 10 10 10 Reserve......................... 50 71 47 75 / 60 10 5 5 Glenwood........................ 53 76 50 79 / 60 20 5 5 Chama........................... 43 63 44 63 / 90 50 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 49 64 51 65 / 90 60 60 60 Pecos........................... 48 63 50 65 / 90 80 70 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 65 49 66 / 80 40 40 40 Red River....................... 40 58 43 59 / 80 40 40 40 Angel Fire...................... 40 63 43 64 / 80 60 50 40 Taos............................ 48 69 49 69 / 80 40 50 40 Mora............................ 44 63 47 64 / 80 80 60 40 Espanola........................ 52 72 54 73 / 80 50 60 50 Santa Fe........................ 51 66 53 68 / 80 70 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 68 52 70 / 90 60 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 72 57 75 / 90 50 50 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 73 58 77 / 80 40 50 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 75 57 79 / 80 40 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 74 58 76 / 90 40 40 20 Belen........................... 56 76 56 79 / 70 30 40 10 Bernalillo...................... 55 75 57 78 / 90 50 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 54 75 55 78 / 80 40 40 20 Corrales........................ 56 75 57 78 / 90 40 40 30 Los Lunas....................... 55 76 56 78 / 80 40 40 20 Placitas........................ 53 71 55 74 / 90 50 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 56 74 57 77 / 90 40 40 30 Socorro......................... 57 77 58 80 / 60 30 30 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 66 51 70 / 90 60 60 30 Tijeras......................... 52 68 53 72 / 90 60 60 30 Edgewood........................ 50 68 51 71 / 90 70 60 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 69 50 73 / 80 70 60 30 Clines Corners.................. 49 64 49 67 / 80 80 60 30 Mountainair..................... 51 68 51 71 / 80 60 50 20 Gran Quivira.................... 51 69 50 71 / 80 60 50 10 Carrizozo....................... 56 73 54 75 / 70 60 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 51 68 50 70 / 70 60 30 20 Capulin......................... 47 63 49 65 / 70 40 20 10 Raton........................... 48 64 51 68 / 70 40 30 20 Springer........................ 49 65 52 69 / 80 50 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 47 61 49 63 / 80 80 70 40 Clayton......................... 51 69 54 74 / 80 40 10 5 Roy............................. 51 64 52 67 / 80 70 40 20 Conchas......................... 56 72 55 74 / 90 60 30 20 Santa Rosa...................... 55 68 53 69 / 80 60 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 56 76 54 77 / 80 60 10 10 Clovis.......................... 59 77 54 79 / 60 40 0 5 Portales........................ 59 78 53 80 / 60 40 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 58 74 56 76 / 80 50 10 10 Roswell......................... 61 79 59 79 / 60 30 0 5 Picacho......................... 56 74 54 75 / 60 40 20 10 Elk............................. 53 73 51 76 / 70 40 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...52