Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
753 FXUS65 KABQ 060011 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 611 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Tues Aug 5 2025 - There is high confidence in widespread moderate to major heat risk impacts today through Friday, which may cause health issues for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas will approach record highs. - Gusty, even strong to severe, winds and dry lightning strikes across western New Mexico today and western and northern NM Wednesday through Friday from isolated to widely scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The upper high over southern NM will drift north through Wednesday night and is forecast to increase in strength to near 601dam at 500mb. It is worthy to note that the highest observed 500mb height all time at KABQ is 601dam and the highest during the month of August is 599dam. So, we`re talking about a very anomalous upper high and potential for record high temperatures. Issued another Heat Advisory for the Middle RGV and the plains of Chaves County but it may need to be expanded to a few additional zone pending forecast trends. The 18Z KABQ sounding just came in with a PWAT of 0.44", which is higher than yesterday`s 0.34". So, mid level moisture is creeping up and will result in a more expansive cumulus field later this afternoon, with a few virga showers and dry thunderstorms across western NM. The latest NAM is advertising impressive dCAPE values of over 2,000J/kg across western NM later this afternoon, so any convection will likely be associated with strong/erratic wind gusts than may exceed 60mph. Same scenario Wednesday afternoon and early evening, but with the threat for strong/erratic wind gusts associated with virga showers and dry thunder expanding a tad further east across northern NM as mid level moisture rotates around the upper high circulation. Haze and areas of smoke will continue to be an issue across northern NM through Wednesday night due to area wildfires and the introduction of smoke into the upper high circulation. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Thursday will be a copy of Wednesday, although with 1-2dam shaved off of the upper high at 500mb. Temperatures will be similar and another Heat Advisory will be required, with highs challenging daily record values at a number of locales including Albuquerque and Roswell. Another round of isolated to scattered virga showers and dry storms is forecast Thursday afternoon/evening, with strong/erratic wind gusts likely. The upper high is forecast to weaken on Friday to near 596dam at 500mb, as an upper level trough swings east through the northern/central Rockies. This will correlate with high temperatures dipping 1-3 degrees from Wed/Thu, but a Heat Advisory may still be required. PWATs will begin an upward trend Sat/Sun/Mon, as the upper high weakens further and relocates over NV/UT/AZ. This transition will bring an uptrend in PoPs and a downtrend in temperatures going into early next week, with a return to potential for burn scar flash flooding. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will continue over western areas through early evening. On Wednesday afternoon and evening, virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will spread to more of western, northern, and central parts of the forecast area. Some thunderstorms over the southwest mountains will be able to produce small wetting footprints Wednesday afternoon and evening. Localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts may reach up to 40 KT near stronger virga showers and dry (or mostly dry) thunderstorms both this evening and on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days, However, a strong upper high over the region will bring elevated fire weather conditions across northern and western NM trough at least Saturday as the combination of unusually hot and dry conditions persist, with chances for late day virga showers, dry thunderstorms and potential for fire starts. Moisture will trend back up late in the weekend and into early next week, bringing an increase in humidity and chances for wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 98 65 100 / 10 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 51 92 52 93 / 5 10 5 5 Cuba............................ 60 91 61 92 / 5 10 10 20 Gallup.......................... 56 94 56 95 / 10 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 58 91 59 92 / 10 20 20 20 Grants.......................... 58 94 59 95 / 10 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 60 92 61 92 / 20 20 20 20 Magdalena....................... 66 93 66 93 / 5 20 10 20 Datil........................... 60 89 60 90 / 10 20 10 20 Reserve......................... 58 97 58 96 / 10 20 10 20 Glenwood........................ 64 101 64 101 / 5 20 10 20 Chama........................... 52 86 53 87 / 0 20 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 64 90 64 90 / 0 20 10 20 Pecos........................... 61 91 61 91 / 0 10 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 87 57 88 / 0 20 5 20 Red River....................... 50 78 50 79 / 0 20 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 43 82 44 82 / 0 20 5 20 Taos............................ 53 91 55 91 / 0 20 5 20 Mora............................ 55 87 56 87 / 0 20 5 20 Espanola........................ 60 96 62 96 / 0 10 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 64 92 65 92 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 95 62 95 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 97 73 97 / 0 5 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 100 70 100 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 101 69 101 / 5 5 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 100 70 100 / 0 5 10 10 Belen........................... 65 101 66 102 / 5 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 100 69 101 / 0 5 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 64 101 66 101 / 5 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 69 100 70 101 / 0 5 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 66 101 67 101 / 5 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 67 97 68 97 / 0 5 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 68 100 69 100 / 0 5 10 10 Socorro......................... 69 102 69 102 / 5 5 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 91 64 92 / 0 5 10 10 Tijeras......................... 65 93 66 94 / 0 5 10 10 Edgewood........................ 59 93 61 94 / 0 5 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 95 59 95 / 0 5 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 60 90 61 90 / 0 5 5 5 Mountainair..................... 61 92 63 92 / 0 5 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 61 92 61 92 / 0 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 66 94 66 94 / 0 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 62 87 61 86 / 0 10 0 5 Capulin......................... 58 90 58 90 / 0 20 10 20 Raton........................... 55 93 55 94 / 0 20 5 20 Springer........................ 55 95 55 95 / 0 20 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 91 58 92 / 0 10 5 20 Clayton......................... 65 99 67 98 / 0 5 5 5 Roy............................. 60 94 61 94 / 0 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 66 102 67 102 / 0 5 5 0 Santa Rosa...................... 63 99 65 99 / 0 5 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 67 102 68 101 / 0 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 69 102 69 100 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 70 102 70 101 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 103 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 105 70 105 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 65 98 65 97 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 64 93 62 93 / 0 5 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-238. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ219-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44