Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
634 FXUS65 KABQ 080555 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1155 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of New Mexico through the end of the week. Isolated showers and storms with gusty winds and little rainfall may develop along the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley each afternoon, but most areas will remain dry and hot with increasing risk for heat-related illnesses. There is a high chance of temperatures topping 100 degrees in the Rio Grande Valley as well as the Four Corners region Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. This includes the Albuquerque metro area. Heat advisories may need to be issued for the potentially dangerous heat. - Daily showers and storms will develop near the central mountain chain and high plains of eastern New Mexico through the end of the week. A few storms may be strong with gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall today and Tuesday. The risk for flash flooding will remain high today around Ruidoso. && .UPDATE... Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area was cancelled early. There is still a low chance of storms in the area between now and 9PM (as shown by the HRRR), however most models are showing light rainfall rates, if any so the flash flood risk remains low. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Upper level ridge remains over the AZ/NM border and Gila Forest region today allowing for NW flow aloft over N and NE part of the state. SPC marginal risk looks on track with best deep layer shear over these areas. Some of these areas had been worked over by convection yesterday so slowly recovering moisture and instability. There is already some convection in the northern mountains and expect more activity to develop over the Highlands in the better storm environment. That said...any storms that do develop will most likely pulse in intensity with the potential for reaching severe levels briefly with hail and straight line wind gusts from outflows. Outflows will likely also trigger new convection but deep layer shear may not be strong enough to really organize convection other than what can form along a boundary. Storms are also initiating in the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains and already getting burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso, NM mainly along US 70. Flash Flood Watch is in effect for these areas through the evening hours. Tomorrow the upper level ridge should get stronger over AZ/NM border and over the Continental Divide. This may limit convection a bit more tomorrow outside of the higher terrain areas which may have enough left over moisture for isolated activity. Another flood watch may be needed for the Sacramento Mountains tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The upper level ridge becomes much more robust with 500 mb heights reaching the 90th percentile of climatology for the NA ensemble. Most ensembles are latching on to heights near 598dm by 12Z Wednesday which should limit convection even more on Wednesday. This also ramps up the heat and probabilities of high temps greater than 100 are increasing across much of the RGV. This includes the ABQ metro area where heat risk may be getting up into the major category. Heat advisories will most likely be needed in a lot of these areas and possibly in the NW for areas like Farmington. Wednesday/Thursday have the highest chances of needing heat advisories. Thursday into the weekend the ridge does flatten with a short wave trough moving over top it across the Rockies. The ridge builds over California by the end of the week with increasing NW flow aloft over northern NM. This may bring some drier air into the region and we will need to look at fire weather concerns especially over the Four Corners and N NM. Winds may be borderline enough to not meet critical fire weather conditions but it will be closely watch considering the Laguna Fire in southern Rio Arriba County. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 High resolution models depict isolated showers and thunderstorms redeveloping during the late night hours between Las Vegas and Roswell. On Tuesday afternoon and evening, scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the central mountain chain eastward, and also over the southwest mountains. Storm motion will generally be toward the south around 5-15 KT. A few of the stronger storms east of the central mountain chain will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 60 mph, as well as quarter diameter hail. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 THe chances of elevated to critical fire weather conditions look to increase through the end of the week mainly over NW NM and Four Corners. There has not been much precipitation in this area so ERCs are reaching 75-95 percentiles or dry fuel moisture. Minimum relative humidity look to drop below 10 percent in many areas Thursday into Friday. Winds will be the main issue on whether critical conditions will be met and closely monitored. Red Flag warnings may be needed during this time. These conditions could also be an issue for the suppression of the Laguna Fire. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 98 61 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 93 48 96 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 92 57 94 / 5 5 0 5 Gallup.......................... 53 95 53 96 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 57 91 58 93 / 10 5 5 5 Grants.......................... 55 94 56 96 / 5 5 0 5 Quemado......................... 58 92 59 94 / 20 10 10 20 Magdalena....................... 64 92 66 93 / 20 10 10 20 Datil........................... 60 90 59 91 / 20 20 10 20 Reserve......................... 56 98 58 100 / 30 30 20 40 Glenwood........................ 62 102 63 103 / 30 30 20 40 Chama........................... 48 86 50 89 / 5 10 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 61 87 63 89 / 10 10 10 10 Pecos........................... 57 87 58 89 / 30 20 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 87 56 89 / 20 20 5 10 Red River....................... 46 77 48 80 / 20 20 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 40 80 41 82 / 20 20 5 20 Taos............................ 51 90 53 92 / 20 10 5 10 Mora............................ 51 83 52 86 / 20 30 10 20 Espanola........................ 60 96 63 97 / 10 10 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 61 90 63 92 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 92 62 94 / 20 10 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 97 71 98 / 20 10 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 98 69 99 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 99 69 102 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 98 69 100 / 10 10 10 0 Belen........................... 66 99 68 100 / 20 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 99 67 101 / 10 10 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 65 99 66 100 / 10 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 67 100 69 102 / 10 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 99 68 100 / 20 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 95 67 97 / 20 10 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 67 99 68 100 / 10 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 69 101 72 102 / 20 10 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 90 61 92 / 20 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 61 92 63 94 / 20 20 10 10 Edgewood........................ 56 91 57 93 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 92 55 94 / 20 20 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 85 58 87 / 30 20 10 10 Mountainair..................... 58 90 59 92 / 20 20 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 59 90 60 91 / 20 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 66 92 66 93 / 30 40 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 83 59 84 / 40 50 20 30 Capulin......................... 52 82 56 86 / 40 30 10 10 Raton........................... 53 87 56 90 / 30 30 10 20 Springer........................ 53 88 56 92 / 30 30 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 54 85 56 88 / 20 30 10 20 Clayton......................... 59 89 63 92 / 50 20 10 5 Roy............................. 56 85 60 89 / 30 20 10 10 Conchas......................... 63 92 64 96 / 40 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 63 92 / 40 30 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 62 90 63 94 / 40 20 20 10 Clovis.......................... 66 92 66 94 / 40 30 30 0 Portales........................ 66 93 66 95 / 40 30 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 94 66 95 / 30 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 71 97 70 98 / 30 10 20 0 Picacho......................... 64 92 63 93 / 30 30 20 10 Elk............................. 61 90 61 90 / 20 40 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...44