154
FXUS65 KABQ 052341 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Above average temperatures continue to dominate the region through
the next week, with some record high temperatures being broken
today. A backdoor cold front will move through northeast NM through
tonight and into Sunday morning, bringing gusty winds across much of
the northeast and through the gaps of the central mountain chain.
Temperatures in the northeast will also dip a bit on Sunday due to
the front. Other than a stray sprinkle across the northern
mountains on Wednesday, temperatures will remain above average
and no precipitation is expected through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Rather warm early-fall day is in progress across the Land of
Enchantment, with many observation sites on their way to approaching
or breaking daily high temperature records.  For example, Clayton
Municipal Airport has already reached 90F as of this writing,
breaking its previous record of 88 for the date.  Gallup has tied
its record of 84F already, so likely on its way to an eleventh
straight day of record high temperatures.  High centroid aloft
remains over the CA/AZ deserts, with a ridge axis extending off
toward the east, has helped maintain our warmth, despite a trough
aloft moving through the northern Plains.  Northwest flow at mid-
levels between these two features still expected to yield some gusty
winds across northwest and central NM this afternoon, though the
winds have been a bit slow to develop.

In the wake of the northern trough, a back-door cold
front will push into northeastern NM by mid-late this evening,
pushing down the eastern plains and eventually through the gaps of
the central mountain chain during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday.
Have leaned on NAM guidance for timing and strength of post-frontal
winds, as it tends to perform better with shallow cool airmasses
(though we are still in a transitional season).  N/NE wind gusts of
up to 35mph could be realized across Union/Harding/Quay counties
on Sunday morning.  The forecast for gap winds in the ABQ/Santa Fe
Metro areas is a little trickier.  With the main storm track still
well north, near the Canadian border, the 1024mb surface high
"bridges" more across the central/northern Plains, as opposed to
plunging down into the Panhandles region, so not really an ideal
setup for strong gap winds.  That being said, recent easterly pushes
have overperformed.  For perspective, at KABQ, 90th percentile gusts
late afternoon Sunday reach 27mph.  For the North Valley/Balloon
Fiesta Park area, northerly drainage winds could top 10mph late
tonight before frontal related winds curl around the Sandia
Mountains for a lighter NE flow.  The lull then ends around mid-day
as more robust east and eventually ESE flow becomes established.

Significant cooling occurs behind the front for Sunday east of the
central mountain chain, where temperatures tumble 8-18F from today`s
highs (but still near to only slightly below normal!).  Another
relatively mild night in store for Sunday night, as winds veer to
light southerly across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The 500mb high pressure will continue to envelope the southwest US
through much of the upcoming week. High temperatures rebound on
Monday after the frontal passage on Sunday to become predominantly
5-10F above average, with record highs being flirted with. The
500mb high will remain around 585-587dm through the beginning part
of the week, firmly etched in the 75th-90th percentile for this
time of year. Very little changes through much of the week in
regards to temperature. A shortwave appears likely to traverse
southeastward down the ridge (centered on the CO/UT border) on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, which may increase mid-level
moisture in the northern mountains. Forecast soundings for
Wednesday evening show a classic low level inverted-V with a moist
mid and upper level layer, which would be consistent with
scattered virga showers and sprinkles across the northern
mountains. Other than a raindrop or two and sporadic gusty winds
on Wednesday, weather remains calm through the week.

A Pacific trough is forecast to push east into CONUS Friday,
decreasing pressure heights over much of NM, thus bringing down
temperatures. Models are in pretty good agreement in the beginning
stages of this trough, just as it makes landfall on the west coast,
but agreement (and therefore forecast confidence) drops off rapidly
as we progress into Saturday. Ensembles as well do not have a firm
grasp on how the trough will evolve once it comes ashore. With that
said, precipitation is possible to return to the area on Saturday
should the trough axis be centered around NV/UT. That would put NM
in an area of favorable dynamics for the onset of synoptically
forced precipitation. Overall, it appears we may finally be in for a
pattern/weather shift come next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Breezy northwest wind gusts near 25 kt will taper thru 8pm. Mid
level clouds lingering over the region late this afternoon will
dissipate more slowly after sunset. A backdoor cold front will
then enter northeast NM after midnight with northerly wind gusts
up to 35 kt around Clayton for several hours. The front is likely
to reach the central mt chain and Rio Grande Valley near sunrise.
The latest suite of hi-res models is slowing the progression of
these winds into the ABQ metro until after 9am. The strongest
gusts of only 20kt will be localized to areas immediately below
canyons. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen thru mid
to late day with a secondary period of east winds gusting to near
25 kt below canyons in the RGV after 4pm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are in-progress across portions of
the Northwest Plateau.  This is courtesy of some gusty northwest
winds mixing down amidst the very warm temperatures and relative
humidity values falling to 15-20%.  There are also localized areas
of ERC`s in the 90-95th percentile in that area.  A back-door
cold front pushes into the eastern plains overnight and eventually
through the gaps of the central mountain chain toward the
Continental Divide.  This should yield lighter winds in the
northwest, though some locally elevated conditions could occur in
the South Central/Southwest mountains Sunday afternoon.  Thereafter,
daily RH minimums gradually recover and 20-ft winds remain light,
especially west of the Central Mountain chain, so no widespread
Elevated conditions are anticipated.  Ventilation rates are forecast
to be a mixed bag of Poor to Fair, prior to becoming more favorable
late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  83  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  81  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  44  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  40  82  37  82 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  81  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  40  83  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  81  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  46  80  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  44  84  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  56  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  74  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  55  77  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  52  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  45  75  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  40  64  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  27  71  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  40  78  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  45  70  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  47  83  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  53  78  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  50  80  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  86  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  88  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  47  88  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  51  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  46  88  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  52  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  88  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  56  85  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  86  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  54  89  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  78  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  53  81  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  45  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  79  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  48  79  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  79  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  52  73  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  44  77  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  45  78  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  46  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  72  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  48  73  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  51  79  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  77  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  50  77  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  82  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  83  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  82  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  53  78  49  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...42