382
FXUS65 KABQ 181956
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Slow moving numerous showers and thunderstorms today will
  increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly over recent
  burn scars.

- Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning will
  accompany thunderstorms each day.

- There is a moderate heat risk for lower elevation areas of the
  Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains each afternoon Saturday
  through at least Monday where highs climb into the upper 90s to
  near 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Current surface observations indicate a pretty moist environment
remains over eastern New Mexico, with widespread dewpoints in the
60s. Thunderstorms, fueled by moist upslope flow from the southeast,
are already developing over the Sacramento Mountains early this
afternoon. Models continue to be in very good agreement of
thunderstorm activity ramping up around the Ruidoso burn scar areas
through 5 PM MDT. With precipitable water content once again
hovering at around 1.20 inches and ample CAPE between 1000 and 2000
J/kg, these storms look to be efficient rain producers. As a result,
there is high confidence for flash flooding impacts if a
thunderstorm were to develop over one of the sensitive scars.
Current consensus from recent guidance is for rain amounts between
0.25 and 0.75 inches, but rainfall rates may be as high as 2 inches
per hour. Locally heavy rainfall amounts may exceed 1.5 inches if a
strong enough storm is able to take foot, creating rapid rises in
the Rio Ruidoso.

Monsoonal moisture in place throughout the rest of the state will
allow for the development of scattered terrain-based thunderstorms,
particularly along the Continental Divide and south of I-40.
Northeast storm motions may be able to take some shower activity
into the Rio Grande Valley and the ABQ metro this afternoon. A
recent trend to note among guidance is greater shower activity over
northeastern New Mexico. As the upper level high stretches across
the New Mexico border from Texas, subsidence should be able to quell
convection over the eastern plains. However, with less influence
from the upper high over northeastern areas and with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, there is increasing confidence of orographically
forced storm activity along the east slopes of the Sangre De
Cristos. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
ample instability for storms to quickly strengthen and produce heavy
rain, but may lack the necessary shear to sustain themselves for
hail and damaging winds.

Tomorrow, the upper high continues to strengthen westward over New
Mexico. Monsoon moisture will once again lead to thunderstorm
development along the high terrain. Additionally, it appears the
subsidence may be able to hinder convection over southeast New
Mexico, including the Sacramento Mountains. Rising pressure heights
will also allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 90s and
lower 100s for parts of the southeast plains. The main corridor for
convective activity will be along the Continental Divide and with
NNE storm motions. A weak shortwave over the central Rockies may be
able to invigorate more storm activity over the Sangre De Cristo
mountains and northeast areas during the late afternoon. Some storms
may be able to form during the early evening in east central New
Mexico during the early evening hours as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the beginning of next week, the center of the 593-595 dm
upper level high continues to mosey deeper west into New Mexico.
Meanwhile, the upper low over Souther California steadily weakens.
This will allow for the influx of monsoonal moisture from the
south to weaken and push further west. As a result, PWATs for
Sunday look to be near or even below average around New Mexico.
The main corridor for thunderstorms will be over the southern and
western high terrain on Sunday afternoon. The upper high then
moves back east and stretches over the majority of the southern
United States. Greater moisture looks to return to the area early
in the work week as a new lobe of high pressure begins to
establish itself over the Southwest. Slow moving, terrain-based
thunderstorms will be common each afternoon through the middle of
the week. With PWATs climbing back to above average for this time
of year, flood watches look likely for the sensitive burn scars in
the Sacramento mountains and Sangre De Cristo mountains during
the afternoons. With rising pressure heights towards the end of
the week, temperatures look to rise into the mid and upper 90s
throughout much of the state, creating a moderate HeatRisk for
lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Afternoon thunderstorm activity looks to impact all sites except
KFMN, KROW, and KTCC. Thunderstorms may create gusty and erratic
winds through the late afternoon along the central mountain chain
and along the Continental Divide. Storm activity will subside at
around sunset, but some showers may linger near KRTN during the
early evening. Mid level clouds will persist into the midnight hours
throughout the state, with winds becoming light and variable.
Overall, conditions look to remain VFR aside from a brief localized
thunderstorm impacting conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Rich monsoonal moisture will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum
for the forecast period. Slow moving thunderstorms will develop
along the high terrain each afternoon and drift towards surrounding
lower elevation areas. Eastern New Mexico, which has seen plenty of
rainfall over the last several days, looks to get a break in storm
activity over the weekend. Higher chances for storms will occur
along central and western areas, with gusty and erratic winds, hail,
and frequent lightning being the main concerns. Recent burn
scars will also be at risk of flash flooding, with many of these
storms producing efficient rainfall rates of an inch per hour. More
numerous shower activity looks likely towards the middle of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  92  65  93 /  20  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  49  90  48  90 /  30  50  30  40
Cuba............................  59  86  58  88 /  40  60  40  40
Gallup..........................  55  86  54  88 /  30  60  40  40
El Morro........................  58  83  57  84 /  50  80  60  60
Grants..........................  58  86  56  88 /  50  70  50  60
Quemado.........................  59  83  58  84 /  60  90  70  80
Magdalena.......................  63  85  62  87 /  60  70  50  60
Datil...........................  58  82  55  83 /  60  80  50  80
Reserve.........................  56  89  54  89 /  60  80  60  80
Glenwood........................  61  93  60  94 /  60  80  50  80
Chama...........................  49  83  49  84 /  30  70  30  50
Los Alamos......................  63  83  62  85 /  30  60  30  50
Pecos...........................  58  85  59  87 /  30  60  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  56  84  55  85 /  30  70  20  60
Red River.......................  48  75  47  76 /  20  70  20  60
Angel Fire......................  43  77  43  79 /  20  70  20  60
Taos............................  56  86  54  87 /  20  60  20  50
Mora............................  53  81  52  84 /  20  70  20  50
Espanola........................  63  92  62  93 /  30  60  30  30
Santa Fe........................  62  86  62  88 /  30  50  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  61  89  60  90 /  30  50  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  92  70  93 /  50  50  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  94  67  95 /  40  40  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  96  67  97 /  40  40  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  68  95 /  40  40  40  30
Belen...........................  66  95  64  96 /  50  30  40  20
Bernalillo......................  68  95  67  96 /  40  40  40  30
Bosque Farms....................  65  95  64  96 /  40  30  40  20
Corrales........................  69  96  67  97 /  40  40  40  30
Los Lunas.......................  66  95  65  96 /  40  30  40  20
Placitas........................  66  91  66  92 /  40  50  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  68  94  67  96 /  40  40  40  30
Socorro.........................  68  96  67  97 /  60  40  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  87  60  88 /  40  50  40  40
Tijeras.........................  63  88  62  89 /  40  50  40  40
Edgewood........................  58  88  57  89 /  30  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  89  55  90 /  30  40  30  30
Clines Corners..................  58  84  59  85 /  30  40  30  30
Mountainair.....................  60  87  59  88 /  40  40  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  59  86  59  88 /  40  40  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  65  89  67  91 /  40  40  20  40
Ruidoso.........................  58  82  60  83 /  30  50  10  60
Capulin.........................  56  84  56  85 /  30  60  10  40
Raton...........................  56  87  54  88 /  20  60  10  40
Springer........................  57  90  56  91 /  20  60  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  56  86  56  88 /  20  50  20  30
Clayton.........................  66  92  65  93 /  10  20  10  10
Roy.............................  61  89  59  90 /  20  30  10  20
Conchas.........................  67  96  67  97 /  20  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  65  92  65  93 /  20  20  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  94  67  96 /  20   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  68  96  68  98 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  68  97  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  96  68  97 /  20  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  71  99  71 100 /  20  10   0   5
Picacho.........................  63  91  64  93 /  20  20   5  20
Elk.............................  61  89  62  89 /  20  30   0  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25