


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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029 FXUS65 KABQ 062344 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of New Mexico through the end of the week. Isolated showers and storms with gusty winds may develop along the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley each day, but most areas will remain dry and hot with increasing risk for heat-related illnesses. - Daily rounds of showers and storms will develop along the central mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New Mexico through the end of the week. Strong outflow winds, hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will elevate the risk for flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. The greatest storm coverage is most likely today and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Pressure heights will creep higher across the region through Monday night as the upper high center moves slowly from north central MX to over our southwest mountains at around 594dam at 500mb. In the meantime, storms are forecast to develop along the central mountain chain and roll southeast across the adjacent highlands and eastern plains through the evening hours. The latest NAM shows bulk shear of 20-25kts across eastern NM this afternoon/evening, which isn`t particularly favorable for severe storms, but sbCAPE values are forecast to reach up to around an impressive 3,000J/kg and LIs are forecast to reach -9C. In addition, 10-15kts of southeast low level inflow is forecast to develop later this afternoon, which will be sufficient to sustain storms across the eastern plains even as surface heating diminishes this evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but locally heavy rainfall is likely the greatest threat. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Ruidoso area due to the potential for heavy rain on the burn scars. West of the central mountain chain, convection that develops between the Continental Divide and the RGV will likely be a mix of wet/dry and favor strong/erratic wind gusts through this evening. A gusty east canyon wind is forecast to develop this evening in the ABQ Metro due to thunderstorm outflow from the east, with gusts to between 30-40mph. Rinse and repeat for Monday and will need to consider and Flash Flood Watch for the burn scars. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The upper high will be centered along the AZ/NM border Tue/Wed and expand to near 597dam and 500mb. As a result, the heat risk will creep up going into mid week across western NM, with widespread moderate and spotty major risk by Wednesday. As the upper high expands over NM, daily rounds of daytime heating triggered convection will trend down, still favoring areas along/east of the central mountain chain and with a decreasing burn scar flood threat. The upper high is modeled to begin moving west, away from NM toward the end of the work week and into the weekend, with pressure heights trending down some. This scenario will take the edge off of the heat and allow low level moisture to penetrate further west into the state, bringing an increase in chances for showers and storms into at least central NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Scattered showers and storms currently favor central and eastern areas, however high-based virga showers do remain across western NM still. Additional storm development will favor eastern NM, but a few storms may still develop between now and 03Z in central NM where outflow boundaries collide. Gusty east (southeast) winds are expected this evening at KABQ (KSAF), and winds may briefly exceed 30KT. An AWW is not likely at KABQ, however trends will be monitored closely. Storms will exit into TX around 06Z. There is a low chance of patchy low stratus developing on the east slopes of the central mountain chain late tonight, however forecast confidence is lower than last night. Tomorrow`s round of storms will be very similar to today`s with storms developing over the high terrain of central and northern NM around 18Z and moving into the lower elevations between 20Z and 00Z. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be the main aviation concern. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days, but elevated fire weather conditions are likely across northwest NM on Thu/Fri as the upper level ridge axis shifts south and allows the westerlies to penetrate. Otherwise, above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions will be the story across western NM, with daily rounds of wetting storms along/east of the central mountain chain that will become more anemic by mid week as the upper high expands over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 96 60 97 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 91 45 93 / 10 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 58 90 56 91 / 20 10 5 5 Gallup.......................... 52 93 52 95 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 56 89 56 92 / 20 10 5 5 Grants.......................... 55 92 54 94 / 20 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 59 90 59 93 / 30 30 20 10 Magdalena....................... 64 90 63 92 / 30 30 20 10 Datil........................... 59 88 59 91 / 30 30 20 10 Reserve......................... 56 94 56 97 / 20 30 20 20 Glenwood........................ 61 99 61 101 / 20 30 20 20 Chama........................... 49 84 49 87 / 10 20 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 61 86 61 88 / 20 30 10 10 Pecos........................... 56 85 56 87 / 30 40 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 84 54 86 / 20 50 20 20 Red River....................... 46 75 46 77 / 20 50 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 42 77 40 80 / 20 60 20 30 Taos............................ 54 87 51 90 / 20 40 10 20 Mora............................ 50 79 50 84 / 20 60 30 30 Espanola........................ 61 93 59 96 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 61 88 61 90 / 20 30 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 91 60 93 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 95 69 96 / 30 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 96 67 97 / 30 20 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 99 67 99 / 30 20 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 96 68 98 / 20 20 10 0 Belen........................... 65 98 64 99 / 20 20 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 98 66 99 / 20 20 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 98 64 99 / 30 20 10 0 Corrales........................ 66 97 67 99 / 20 20 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 66 98 65 99 / 30 20 10 0 Placitas........................ 66 94 66 95 / 20 20 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 66 96 67 98 / 20 20 10 5 Socorro......................... 69 98 67 100 / 30 20 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 89 59 90 / 30 20 10 10 Tijeras......................... 62 91 61 92 / 30 20 20 10 Edgewood........................ 56 90 56 92 / 30 20 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 91 54 93 / 30 30 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 83 56 87 / 40 40 30 30 Mountainair..................... 59 89 57 90 / 30 30 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 59 89 58 91 / 30 30 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 90 64 92 / 20 50 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 59 81 59 82 / 20 70 30 60 Capulin......................... 53 81 52 84 / 40 60 40 30 Raton........................... 54 84 53 89 / 20 70 30 30 Springer........................ 55 86 54 90 / 30 60 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 54 83 54 85 / 30 60 30 30 Clayton......................... 61 86 59 89 / 50 30 40 10 Roy............................. 58 83 57 86 / 50 40 40 20 Conchas......................... 63 91 63 93 / 60 40 40 20 Santa Rosa...................... 62 89 61 91 / 60 30 40 20 Tucumcari....................... 62 89 63 93 / 60 30 40 10 Clovis.......................... 66 89 65 91 / 50 20 30 20 Portales........................ 66 91 66 92 / 40 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 65 92 65 93 / 50 30 30 10 Roswell......................... 71 94 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 64 88 63 90 / 20 50 20 20 Elk............................. 61 86 60 87 / 20 60 20 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...16