Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
719 FXUS65 KABQ 181903 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 103 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Breezy to windy conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Winds will be strongest on Monday where gusts between 50 and 60 mph near Clines Corners will create hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles. - A Pacific storm system will introduce low chances for light precipitation across western and northern areas of New Mexico Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The previously issued Freeze Watch for the Estancia Valley tonight was cancelled as freezing temperatures have been observed twice this fall already, so the growing season has ended. Nonetheless, temperatures will dip below freezing tonight in the Estancia Valley, as well as across many northern and western communities that have already dropped below freezing this fall. Other than the chilly temperatures, a quiet night will be in store once the winds diminish this afternoon. The backdoor front will continue to ooze south and west overnight, briefly making an appearance as a southeast wind around KSAF Sunday morning. The front will quickly mix out by late Sunday morning as zonal flow sets up over NM and an associated lee side trough deepens. Gusty southwest winds will prevail Sunday afternoon across eastern NM with gusts around 35-45 mph. After cool temperatures today across central and western NM in the wake of the overnight trough passage, temperatures will rebound to near or slightly above mid October normals Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 An upper level trough will shift over the PacNW on Sunday before crossing the central Rockies early Monday. This trough will increase H7 wind speeds across the high terrain of northern NM Sunday night into early Monday morning. By sunrise Monday, H7 winds of 50kt will be common along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains southward to KCQC. Cross-sections suggest this will be a good setup for mountain wave activity east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns Monday morning. Thus, expect strong and erratic gusts between 12a and 12p Monday along the I-25 corridor. These winds will be perpendicular to the interstate, resulting difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. By the noon hour Monday, the 50kt H7 jet will be focused over the Sandia/Manzano Mountains eastward toward KCQC and western Guadalupe County. With daytime mixing occurring by mid to late morning, gusts between 50 and 60 mph are looking increasingly likely for the KCQC area. If model trends continue, a High Wind Watch will be needed for the area. A Wind Advisory, at minimum, may also be needed for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday morning as well. Winds will slowly decrease through the late afternoon and evening hours. After the trough slides into the Great Plains Monday afternoon, an associated cold front will back into eastern NM late Monday afternoon before continuing to press southward Monday evening and overnight. This will be a dry frontal passage, but it will cool temperatures quite a bit. Tuesday morning low temperatures may dip below freezing for the first time this season around Las Vegas and Clines Corners, while western Union and western Harding counties will be close. Tuesday afternoon temps will also be a few degrees below normal. Otherwise, should be a quiet day overall as the upper level ridge slides over NM. The Pacific low that has been churning over the eastern Pacific all week will finally eject northeastward over SoCal Wednesday. Increasing southwest flow ahead of this feature will draw up subtropical moisture into NM Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and resulting in some light precipitation across western NM. The low will track eastward near the NM/CO border through the day Thursday, bring additional chances for light precipitation across northern NM, while wind speeds increase again elsewhere, particularly behind the Pacific cold front. The low should move over the Great Plains early Friday, and a back door cold front should slide through the eastern plains of NM. Thus, cooler conditions are in store for the late week period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty north to northwest winds will persist through the afternoon hours. Gust speeds of 20 to 35kt will be common. Winds will diminish around sunset, but southwest winds will begin to ramp back up by the late morning hours on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 With the recent moisture, ERC`s remain very low. Main concern is increasing winds on Sunday and Monday across eastern NM. Gusts between 35 and 45 mph will be common Sunday afternoon, while gusts should be a little stronger across the east central plains on Monday. Additionally on Monday, daytime RH values will fall near 15 percent across all areas except portions of northwest and north central NM. A little rain and high elevation snow will be on tap mid week as a Pacific storm system moves across the area, though this system will also increase westerly winds as well. Models are indicating the potential for another round of very strong winds around the Sun/Mon timeframe of next week (Oct 26-27). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 71 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 68 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 34 69 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 27 73 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 71 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 76 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 74 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 41 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 75 36 78 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 79 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 63 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 57 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 23 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 29 67 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 31 69 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 34 72 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 44 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 76 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 74 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 37 76 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 37 75 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 75 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 38 75 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 73 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 43 78 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 72 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 35 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 44 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 68 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 28 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 73 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 31 77 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 36 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 74 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 38 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 38 76 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 40 74 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 75 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 41 73 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 44 77 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 40 75 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34