029
FXUS65 KABQ 062344 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Dry and hot conditions will persist over the western half of New
  Mexico through the end of the week. Isolated showers and storms
  with gusty winds may develop along the Continental Divide and
  the Rio Grande Valley each day, but most areas will remain dry
  and hot with increasing risk for heat-related illnesses.

- Daily rounds of showers and storms will develop along the
  central mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New
  Mexico through the end of the week. Strong outflow winds, hail,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will elevate the
  risk for flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. The
  greatest storm coverage is most likely today and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Pressure heights will creep higher across the region through
Monday night as the upper high center moves slowly from north
central MX to over our southwest mountains at around 594dam at
500mb. In the meantime, storms are forecast to develop along the
central mountain chain and roll southeast across the adjacent
highlands and eastern plains through the evening hours. The latest
NAM shows bulk shear of 20-25kts across eastern NM this
afternoon/evening, which isn`t particularly favorable for severe
storms, but sbCAPE values are forecast to reach up to around an
impressive 3,000J/kg and LIs are forecast to reach -9C. In
addition, 10-15kts of southeast low level inflow is forecast to
develop later this afternoon, which will be sufficient to sustain
storms across the eastern plains even as surface heating
diminishes this evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, but locally heavy rainfall is likely the greatest
threat. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Ruidoso area
due to the potential for heavy rain on the burn scars. West of
the central mountain chain, convection that develops between the
Continental Divide and the RGV will likely be a mix of wet/dry and
favor strong/erratic wind gusts through this evening. A gusty
east canyon wind is forecast to develop this evening in the ABQ
Metro due to thunderstorm outflow from the east, with gusts to
between 30-40mph. Rinse and repeat for Monday and will need to
consider and Flash Flood Watch for the burn scars.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The upper high will be centered along the AZ/NM border Tue/Wed and
expand to near 597dam and 500mb. As a result, the heat risk will
creep up going into mid week across western NM, with widespread
moderate and spotty major risk by Wednesday. As the upper high
expands over NM, daily rounds of daytime heating triggered
convection will trend down, still favoring areas along/east of the
central mountain chain and with a decreasing burn scar flood
threat. The upper high is modeled to begin moving west, away from
NM toward the end of the work week and into the weekend, with
pressure heights trending down some. This scenario will take the
edge off of the heat and allow low level moisture to penetrate
further west into the state, bringing an increase in chances for
showers and storms into at least central NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Scattered showers and storms currently favor central and eastern
areas, however high-based virga showers do remain across western
NM still. Additional storm development will favor eastern NM, but
a few storms may still develop between now and 03Z in central NM
where outflow boundaries collide. Gusty east (southeast) winds are
expected this evening at KABQ (KSAF), and winds may briefly
exceed 30KT. An AWW is not likely at KABQ, however trends will be
monitored closely. Storms will exit into TX around 06Z. There is a
low chance of patchy low stratus developing on the east slopes of
the central mountain chain late tonight, however forecast
confidence is lower than last night.

Tomorrow`s round of storms will be very similar to today`s with
storms developing over the high terrain of central and northern NM
around 18Z and moving into the lower elevations between 20Z and
00Z. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be the main aviation
concern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at
least the next seven days, but elevated fire weather conditions
are likely across northwest NM on Thu/Fri as the upper level ridge
axis shifts south and allows the westerlies to penetrate.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions
will be the story across western NM, with daily rounds of wetting
storms along/east of the central mountain chain that will become
more anemic by mid week as the upper high expands over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  96  60  97 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  91  45  93 /  10  10   0   0
Cuba............................  58  90  56  91 /  20  10   5   5
Gallup..........................  52  93  52  95 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  56  89  56  92 /  20  10   5   5
Grants..........................  55  92  54  94 /  20  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  59  90  59  93 /  30  30  20  10
Magdalena.......................  64  90  63  92 /  30  30  20  10
Datil...........................  59  88  59  91 /  30  30  20  10
Reserve.........................  56  94  56  97 /  20  30  20  20
Glenwood........................  61  99  61 101 /  20  30  20  20
Chama...........................  49  84  49  87 /  10  20   5  10
Los Alamos......................  61  86  61  88 /  20  30  10  10
Pecos...........................  56  85  56  87 /  30  40  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  55  84  54  86 /  20  50  20  20
Red River.......................  46  75  46  77 /  20  50  20  30
Angel Fire......................  42  77  40  80 /  20  60  20  30
Taos............................  54  87  51  90 /  20  40  10  20
Mora............................  50  79  50  84 /  20  60  30  30
Espanola........................  61  93  59  96 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Fe........................  61  88  61  90 /  20  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  61  91  60  93 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  95  69  96 /  30  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  96  67  97 /  30  20  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  99  67  99 /  30  20  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  96  68  98 /  20  20  10   0
Belen...........................  65  98  64  99 /  20  20  10   0
Bernalillo......................  66  98  66  99 /  20  20  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  64  98  64  99 /  30  20  10   0
Corrales........................  66  97  67  99 /  20  20  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  66  98  65  99 /  30  20  10   0
Placitas........................  66  94  66  95 /  20  20  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  66  96  67  98 /  20  20  10   5
Socorro.........................  69  98  67 100 /  30  20  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  89  59  90 /  30  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  62  91  61  92 /  30  20  20  10
Edgewood........................  56  90  56  92 /  30  20  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  91  54  93 /  30  30  20  10
Clines Corners..................  56  83  56  87 /  40  40  30  30
Mountainair.....................  59  89  57  90 /  30  30  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  59  89  58  91 /  30  30  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  66  90  64  92 /  20  50  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  59  81  59  82 /  20  70  30  60
Capulin.........................  53  81  52  84 /  40  60  40  30
Raton...........................  54  84  53  89 /  20  70  30  30
Springer........................  55  86  54  90 /  30  60  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  54  83  54  85 /  30  60  30  30
Clayton.........................  61  86  59  89 /  50  30  40  10
Roy.............................  58  83  57  86 /  50  40  40  20
Conchas.........................  63  91  63  93 /  60  40  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  62  89  61  91 /  60  30  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  62  89  63  93 /  60  30  40  10
Clovis..........................  66  89  65  91 /  50  20  30  20
Portales........................  66  91  66  92 /  40  20  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  65  92  65  93 /  50  30  30  10
Roswell.........................  71  94  71  96 /  20  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  64  88  63  90 /  20  50  20  20
Elk.............................  61  86  60  87 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16