Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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719
FXUS65 KABQ 181903
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
103 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday
  along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Winds will be
  strongest on Monday where gusts between 50 and 60 mph near
  Clines Corners will create hazardous crosswinds for high
  profile vehicles.

- A Pacific storm system will introduce low chances for light
  precipitation across western and northern areas of New Mexico
  Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The previously issued Freeze Watch for the Estancia Valley tonight
was cancelled as freezing temperatures have been observed twice
this fall already, so the growing season has ended. Nonetheless,
temperatures will dip below freezing tonight in the Estancia
Valley, as well as across many northern and western communities
that have already dropped below freezing this fall. Other than the
chilly temperatures, a quiet night will be in store once the winds
diminish this afternoon. The backdoor front will continue to ooze
south and west overnight, briefly making an appearance as a
southeast wind around KSAF Sunday morning.

The front will quickly mix out by late Sunday morning as zonal
flow sets up over NM and an associated lee side trough deepens.
Gusty southwest winds will prevail Sunday afternoon across eastern
NM with gusts around 35-45 mph. After cool temperatures today
across central and western NM in the wake of the overnight trough
passage, temperatures will rebound to near or slightly above mid
October normals Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

An upper level trough will shift over the PacNW on Sunday before
crossing the central Rockies early Monday. This trough will
increase H7 wind speeds across the high terrain of northern NM
Sunday night into early Monday morning. By sunrise Monday, H7
winds of 50kt will be common along and east of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains southward to KCQC. Cross-sections suggest this
will be a good setup for mountain wave activity east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mtns Monday morning. Thus, expect strong and
erratic gusts between 12a and 12p Monday along the I-25 corridor.
These winds will be perpendicular to the interstate, resulting
difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles. By the
noon hour Monday, the 50kt H7 jet will be focused over the
Sandia/Manzano Mountains eastward toward KCQC and western
Guadalupe County. With daytime mixing occurring by mid to late
morning, gusts between 50 and 60 mph are looking increasingly
likely for the KCQC area. If model trends continue, a High Wind
Watch will be needed for the area. A Wind Advisory, at minimum,
may also be needed for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday
morning as well. Winds will slowly decrease through the late
afternoon and evening hours.

After the trough slides into the Great Plains Monday afternoon,
an associated cold front will back into eastern NM late Monday
afternoon before continuing to press southward Monday evening and
overnight. This will be a dry frontal passage, but it will cool
temperatures quite a bit. Tuesday morning low temperatures may dip
below freezing for the first time this season around Las Vegas
and Clines Corners, while western Union and western Harding
counties will be close. Tuesday afternoon temps will also be a few
degrees below normal. Otherwise, should be a quiet day overall as
the upper level ridge slides over NM.

The Pacific low that has been churning over the eastern Pacific
all week will finally eject northeastward over SoCal Wednesday.
Increasing southwest flow ahead of this feature will draw up
subtropical moisture into NM Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
resulting in some light precipitation across western NM. The low
will track eastward near the NM/CO border through the day
Thursday, bring additional chances for light precipitation across
northern NM, while wind speeds increase again elsewhere,
particularly behind the Pacific cold front. The low should move
over the Great Plains early Friday, and a back door cold front
should slide through the eastern plains of NM. Thus, cooler
conditions are in store for the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty north to
northwest winds will persist through the afternoon hours. Gust
speeds of 20 to 35kt will be common. Winds will diminish around
sunset, but southwest winds will begin to ramp back up by the late
morning hours on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

With the recent moisture, ERC`s remain very low. Main concern is
increasing winds on Sunday and Monday across eastern NM. Gusts
between 35 and 45 mph will be common Sunday afternoon, while gusts
should be a little stronger across the east central plains on
Monday. Additionally on Monday, daytime RH values will fall near
15 percent across all areas except portions of northwest and
north central NM. A little rain and high elevation snow will be on
tap mid week as a Pacific storm system moves across the area,
though this system will also increase westerly winds as well.
Models are indicating the potential for another round of very
strong winds around the Sun/Mon timeframe of next week (Oct
26-27).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  35  71  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  26  68  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  34  69  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  27  73  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  32  71  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  28  76  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  31  74  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  34  71  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  35  75  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  79  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30  63  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  41  67  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  35  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  28  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  23  63  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  29  67  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  31  69  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  34  72  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  38  67  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  35  70  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  74  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  37  76  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  39  74  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  37  75  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  40  75  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  38  75  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  41  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  41  73  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  43  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  67  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  39  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  32  69  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  72  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  34  67  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  35  70  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  35  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  44  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  41  68  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  28  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  30  73  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  31  77  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  33  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  36  73  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  35  74  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  39  79  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  38  76  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  38  76  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  40  74  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  39  75  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  41  73  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  44  77  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  42  78  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  40  75  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34