


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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382 FXUS65 KABQ 181956 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 156 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Slow moving numerous showers and thunderstorms today will increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars. - Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and dangerous lightning will accompany thunderstorms each day. - There is a moderate heat risk for lower elevation areas of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains each afternoon Saturday through at least Monday where highs climb into the upper 90s to near 100F. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Current surface observations indicate a pretty moist environment remains over eastern New Mexico, with widespread dewpoints in the 60s. Thunderstorms, fueled by moist upslope flow from the southeast, are already developing over the Sacramento Mountains early this afternoon. Models continue to be in very good agreement of thunderstorm activity ramping up around the Ruidoso burn scar areas through 5 PM MDT. With precipitable water content once again hovering at around 1.20 inches and ample CAPE between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, these storms look to be efficient rain producers. As a result, there is high confidence for flash flooding impacts if a thunderstorm were to develop over one of the sensitive scars. Current consensus from recent guidance is for rain amounts between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, but rainfall rates may be as high as 2 inches per hour. Locally heavy rainfall amounts may exceed 1.5 inches if a strong enough storm is able to take foot, creating rapid rises in the Rio Ruidoso. Monsoonal moisture in place throughout the rest of the state will allow for the development of scattered terrain-based thunderstorms, particularly along the Continental Divide and south of I-40. Northeast storm motions may be able to take some shower activity into the Rio Grande Valley and the ABQ metro this afternoon. A recent trend to note among guidance is greater shower activity over northeastern New Mexico. As the upper level high stretches across the New Mexico border from Texas, subsidence should be able to quell convection over the eastern plains. However, with less influence from the upper high over northeastern areas and with dewpoints in the upper 60s, there is increasing confidence of orographically forced storm activity along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be ample instability for storms to quickly strengthen and produce heavy rain, but may lack the necessary shear to sustain themselves for hail and damaging winds. Tomorrow, the upper high continues to strengthen westward over New Mexico. Monsoon moisture will once again lead to thunderstorm development along the high terrain. Additionally, it appears the subsidence may be able to hinder convection over southeast New Mexico, including the Sacramento Mountains. Rising pressure heights will also allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 90s and lower 100s for parts of the southeast plains. The main corridor for convective activity will be along the Continental Divide and with NNE storm motions. A weak shortwave over the central Rockies may be able to invigorate more storm activity over the Sangre De Cristo mountains and northeast areas during the late afternoon. Some storms may be able to form during the early evening in east central New Mexico during the early evening hours as well. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 For the beginning of next week, the center of the 593-595 dm upper level high continues to mosey deeper west into New Mexico. Meanwhile, the upper low over Souther California steadily weakens. This will allow for the influx of monsoonal moisture from the south to weaken and push further west. As a result, PWATs for Sunday look to be near or even below average around New Mexico. The main corridor for thunderstorms will be over the southern and western high terrain on Sunday afternoon. The upper high then moves back east and stretches over the majority of the southern United States. Greater moisture looks to return to the area early in the work week as a new lobe of high pressure begins to establish itself over the Southwest. Slow moving, terrain-based thunderstorms will be common each afternoon through the middle of the week. With PWATs climbing back to above average for this time of year, flood watches look likely for the sensitive burn scars in the Sacramento mountains and Sangre De Cristo mountains during the afternoons. With rising pressure heights towards the end of the week, temperatures look to rise into the mid and upper 90s throughout much of the state, creating a moderate HeatRisk for lower elevation areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Afternoon thunderstorm activity looks to impact all sites except KFMN, KROW, and KTCC. Thunderstorms may create gusty and erratic winds through the late afternoon along the central mountain chain and along the Continental Divide. Storm activity will subside at around sunset, but some showers may linger near KRTN during the early evening. Mid level clouds will persist into the midnight hours throughout the state, with winds becoming light and variable. Overall, conditions look to remain VFR aside from a brief localized thunderstorm impacting conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Rich monsoonal moisture will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum for the forecast period. Slow moving thunderstorms will develop along the high terrain each afternoon and drift towards surrounding lower elevation areas. Eastern New Mexico, which has seen plenty of rainfall over the last several days, looks to get a break in storm activity over the weekend. Higher chances for storms will occur along central and western areas, with gusty and erratic winds, hail, and frequent lightning being the main concerns. Recent burn scars will also be at risk of flash flooding, with many of these storms producing efficient rainfall rates of an inch per hour. More numerous shower activity looks likely towards the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 92 65 93 / 20 10 20 10 Dulce........................... 49 90 48 90 / 30 50 30 40 Cuba............................ 59 86 58 88 / 40 60 40 40 Gallup.......................... 55 86 54 88 / 30 60 40 40 El Morro........................ 58 83 57 84 / 50 80 60 60 Grants.......................... 58 86 56 88 / 50 70 50 60 Quemado......................... 59 83 58 84 / 60 90 70 80 Magdalena....................... 63 85 62 87 / 60 70 50 60 Datil........................... 58 82 55 83 / 60 80 50 80 Reserve......................... 56 89 54 89 / 60 80 60 80 Glenwood........................ 61 93 60 94 / 60 80 50 80 Chama........................... 49 83 49 84 / 30 70 30 50 Los Alamos...................... 63 83 62 85 / 30 60 30 50 Pecos........................... 58 85 59 87 / 30 60 30 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 84 55 85 / 30 70 20 60 Red River....................... 48 75 47 76 / 20 70 20 60 Angel Fire...................... 43 77 43 79 / 20 70 20 60 Taos............................ 56 86 54 87 / 20 60 20 50 Mora............................ 53 81 52 84 / 20 70 20 50 Espanola........................ 63 92 62 93 / 30 60 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 62 86 62 88 / 30 50 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 89 60 90 / 30 50 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 92 70 93 / 50 50 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 94 67 95 / 40 40 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 96 67 97 / 40 40 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 94 68 95 / 40 40 40 30 Belen........................... 66 95 64 96 / 50 30 40 20 Bernalillo...................... 68 95 67 96 / 40 40 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 65 95 64 96 / 40 30 40 20 Corrales........................ 69 96 67 97 / 40 40 40 30 Los Lunas....................... 66 95 65 96 / 40 30 40 20 Placitas........................ 66 91 66 92 / 40 50 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 68 94 67 96 / 40 40 40 30 Socorro......................... 68 96 67 97 / 60 40 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 87 60 88 / 40 50 40 40 Tijeras......................... 63 88 62 89 / 40 50 40 40 Edgewood........................ 58 88 57 89 / 30 40 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 89 55 90 / 30 40 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 58 84 59 85 / 30 40 30 30 Mountainair..................... 60 87 59 88 / 40 40 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 59 86 59 88 / 40 40 30 40 Carrizozo....................... 65 89 67 91 / 40 40 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 58 82 60 83 / 30 50 10 60 Capulin......................... 56 84 56 85 / 30 60 10 40 Raton........................... 56 87 54 88 / 20 60 10 40 Springer........................ 57 90 56 91 / 20 60 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 56 86 56 88 / 20 50 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 92 65 93 / 10 20 10 10 Roy............................. 61 89 59 90 / 20 30 10 20 Conchas......................... 67 96 67 97 / 20 20 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 65 92 65 93 / 20 20 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 65 94 67 96 / 20 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 68 96 68 98 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 68 97 69 98 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 96 68 97 / 20 10 5 0 Roswell......................... 71 99 71 100 / 20 10 0 5 Picacho......................... 63 91 64 93 / 20 20 5 20 Elk............................. 61 89 62 89 / 20 30 0 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25