Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
156 FXUS65 KABQ 131145 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 545 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low- lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of precipitation occur through Tuesday night. The flash flood risk will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond crosses today through Tuesday morning, isolated flash flooding remains a concern, especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso. Elevated flows in main stem rivers will also possible. - Dry and breezy conditions will return Thursday through the end of the week. - Freezing temperatures are expected for much of northern, western and portions of central New Mexico Friday morning. This will be the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. Should these areas not freeze Friday morning, a higher probability for the first freeze will exist for these zones along with the northeast highlands on Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A complex pattern remains over the region early this morning. The forecast area remains under moist southwest flow between a closed upper low along the Pacific NW coast diving south and an upper high over South Texas. Between these upper level systems is the remnant moisture of Raymond from the eastern Pacific over southeast AZ and southwest NM. Finally, a backdoor front is moving through northeast and east central NM in the wake of an upper low over south central Canada. Drier surface air is being observed behind this backdoor front with dewpoints in the 20s and 30s across northeast NM. Cannot rule out a few showers across east central NM along this backdoor front through mid this morning. This backdoor front will squeeze through the gaps of the central mountain chain around to just after sunrise bringing a gusty southeast canyon wind to the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros throughout the day Monday. The southwest flow between the upper low and upper high will pull the remnant moisture of Raymond northeast into western parts of the forecast area later this morning with shower and embedded thunderstorms increasing in coverage heading into the afternoon. Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will move east northeast into central NM, including the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros, come the late afternoon and evening hours. Brisk storm motion to the northeast and limited instability should help limit the flash flood risk, but multiple rounds of rainfall could result in localized areas of flash flooding in normally flood prone areas and recent burn scars. Temperatures will generally be slightly to several degrees below average across the forecast area due to the widespread cloud cover and precipitation along with the effects of the backdoor front across central and eastern NM. For the Ruidoso area burn scars, most shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will remain mostly west and northwest of the area until the evening with better shower and isolated thunderstorm activity overnight as Raymond`s remnant moisture moves more overhead. Did not have enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the zone due to limited instability resulting in lower rainfall rates. Shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will be focused over central and eastern NM overnight Monday into Tuesday due to Raymond`s remnant moisture shifting to these areas of the state. Meanwhile, low clouds and patchy fog will likely develop across western and eventually central NM in the wake of this shower and thunderstorm activity due to nearly saturated low levels. On Tuesday, the state will still remain in between the aforementioned upper low over the central California and the upper high over the southern Great Plains. Drier air looks to move into northwest and west central NM with PWATS around to just below 0.5 inches across these parts of the state. Above average PWATs between 0.75 and 1.3 inches will remain across central and eastern NM due to moist southeast surface flow. Raymond`s remnant moisture will exit northeast of the state by late Tuesday morning. However, the higher moisture still in place, along with a corridor of slightly better instability due to partial clearing, will allow from scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development across the central mountain chain and nearby lower elevations during the afternoon and evening hours with a quick motion to the northeast. Shower and thunderstorm activity across central NM could last well into the overnight hours due to favorable upper level divergence and large scale ascent ahead of the upper low circulation over Nevada. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 110 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be mainly focused across north central NM as drier air moves into more of western NM due to the upper low moving northeast over the central Great Basin. By Thursday, the upper low moves over the northern Rockies allowing a Pacific cold front and much drier westerly flow behind it to move through the forecast area. Temperatures will cool down below average across western NM behind the Pacific front. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm across far eastern NM near the Texas border where some higher moisture will linger. Some gusty southwest winds across northeast NM Thursday afternoon due to the development of a ~ 1000 mb surface lee low across southeast CO. Clear skies and CAA will allow for efficient radiational cooling Thursday night into Friday morning resulting in more typical chilly temperatures for mid October. Upper 20s to mid 30s will be common across northern and western NM with 40s to near 50 across the middle RGV and eastern plains. Dry westerly flow and fall like temperatures will encompass the entire state by Friday. Breezy conditions will exist along the lee slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Friday afternoon due to the development of a weak surface low across northeast NM and southeast CO. Moderate probabilities exist for locations across the San Augustin Plains and Estancia Basin to see the first fall freeze on Friday morning and for the northeast highlands on Saturday morning. This will be about 1 to 2 weeks later than the average first freeze for these locations. Dry northwest flow with seasonable fall temperatures is favored for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Shower and embedded thunderstorm activity in AZ is currently moving into western TAF sites. Localized MVFR conditions will exist with these showers. Meanwhile, some isolated showers with VFR conditons across east central NM through mid morning along a backdoor front. The backdoor front moves through the gaps of the central mountain chain during the mid morning hours resulting in a gusty east canyon wind for KABQ and KSAF through most of the remaining TAF period. Low probability (<10%) for wind gusts to reach Airport Weather Warning criteria at KABQ. Shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage across western NM heading into the afternoon before shifting to central NM TAF sites heading into the evening hours. Cannot rule out some brief MVFR conditions in heavier shower and embedded thunderstorm activity. Shower and embedded thunderstorm activity shifts more to over eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday morning with a growing area of MVFR to IFR ceilings across central, eastern, and south central NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected through early next week. Widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity today before focusing to central areas Tuesday and north central areas Wednesday. Rapid drying begins Thursday with dry conditions for the rest of the week into early next week. Breezy south winds across central areas, along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast plains Wednesday afternoon. Breezy southwest winds across northeast areas Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 69 53 73 52 / 80 70 20 10 Dulce........................... 64 44 68 44 / 80 90 40 30 Cuba............................ 62 48 68 49 / 70 70 40 30 Gallup.......................... 68 46 71 44 / 70 70 0 5 El Morro........................ 66 46 70 46 / 80 70 5 10 Grants.......................... 66 47 72 47 / 80 80 20 10 Quemado......................... 69 47 72 47 / 60 60 5 10 Magdalena....................... 64 52 69 53 / 70 60 20 20 Datil........................... 65 48 69 48 / 70 60 10 20 Reserve......................... 69 48 72 47 / 70 80 20 10 Glenwood........................ 70 52 76 50 / 80 80 20 20 Chama........................... 58 42 63 43 / 80 90 40 30 Los Alamos...................... 61 51 65 52 / 60 80 50 40 Pecos........................... 60 48 62 49 / 50 80 70 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 63 47 65 48 / 40 60 30 30 Red River....................... 57 40 60 41 / 40 60 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 60 41 63 42 / 40 60 50 40 Taos............................ 65 46 68 48 / 40 60 30 30 Mora............................ 58 42 61 46 / 40 80 60 50 Espanola........................ 69 51 72 51 / 40 80 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 64 52 67 53 / 50 80 60 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 51 72 51 / 50 70 50 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 57 72 57 / 60 60 40 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 56 75 58 / 60 60 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 53 77 54 / 60 60 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 56 75 58 / 60 60 30 30 Belen........................... 73 56 77 56 / 60 60 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 70 55 75 55 / 60 60 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 72 53 77 54 / 60 60 30 30 Corrales........................ 70 55 76 56 / 60 60 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 72 55 77 56 / 60 60 30 30 Placitas........................ 68 54 73 54 / 60 60 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 69 55 75 57 / 60 60 30 30 Socorro......................... 71 58 76 59 / 60 60 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 50 67 51 / 70 60 60 40 Tijeras......................... 64 52 69 53 / 70 60 50 40 Edgewood........................ 63 50 67 50 / 70 70 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 65 49 69 49 / 60 70 60 40 Clines Corners.................. 59 48 63 49 / 50 70 60 50 Mountainair..................... 64 51 69 51 / 60 60 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 65 51 70 50 / 60 70 50 40 Carrizozo....................... 68 55 74 54 / 60 60 50 30 Ruidoso......................... 62 48 67 48 / 70 70 50 40 Capulin......................... 61 46 64 50 / 20 60 30 30 Raton........................... 65 47 67 51 / 20 50 30 30 Springer........................ 66 48 69 52 / 20 60 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 60 47 61 49 / 30 80 60 60 Clayton......................... 62 51 70 54 / 20 70 30 10 Roy............................. 63 51 65 52 / 20 80 50 40 Conchas......................... 68 54 71 55 / 30 80 60 30 Santa Rosa...................... 65 54 69 53 / 40 70 60 40 Tucumcari....................... 68 55 75 54 / 30 70 50 20 Clovis.......................... 70 57 76 55 / 50 50 40 10 Portales........................ 72 58 78 55 / 50 50 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 69 57 75 56 / 40 70 50 20 Roswell......................... 75 60 78 59 / 40 70 30 20 Picacho......................... 69 56 72 53 / 50 70 40 20 Elk............................. 67 53 70 51 / 60 70 40 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71