165
FXUS65 KABQ 092104
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low
  water crossings through the weekend, especially along the east
  slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Recent heavy snow will
  continue to melt with any additional rainfall on existing
  snowpack today and tomorrow intensifying the melt and runoff.

- Lower coverage of afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms today and tomorrow, mostly favoring the northern
  mountains.

- Dry and breezy to windy conditions Monday through Wednesday.
  Gusts of 45 to 55 mph for western areas on Tuesday and then for
  the central mountains chain and adjacent highlands on Wednesday.
  Parts of western NM and the lower Rio Grande valley will also
  see low humidity with an increased risk of rapid fire spread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

High pressure to our west and a shortwave trough to our east align
southerly flow over New Mexico today and through the rest of the
evening tonight. Modest moisture with this flow pattern (PWATs
around 0.5-0.6") and surface heating has allowed for shower and
thunderstorm development across the northern and northwest high
terrain. This development is likely to continue into the late
afternoon and evening hours before tapering off around sundown.
Showers and storms today exhibit south-southwest motions around 10-
20kts, which is carrying them off the higher terrain into the lower
adjacent highlands. Light rainfall amounts are expected with the
modest PWATs, with the most likely QPF range sitting at 0.1-0.2",
with locally higher amounts possible (~25% chance). Winds calm down
overnight with rising relative humidity values, and another few
hours of patchy freezing fog remains possible again for Angel Fire
and the Moreno Valley. Low temperatures tonight remain near average
across the state, with mid to high 40s in lower terrain, with low
40s and high 30s in higher areas.

The ridge of high pressure continues shifting eastward tomorrow,
allowing drier air to seep into the state. This is characterized by
a ~0.1" drop in PWATs across the area. With this, while isolated
thunderstorms remain possible across northern and northwest high
terrain through the afternoon on Saturday, coverage is favored to be
less than today. Forecast soundings across the northwest portions of
the area signal a well mixed surface layer, which signal the
isolated chances for dry thunderstorms capable of gusty outflow
winds and the possibility for dry lightning. Temperatures tomorrow
warm up around 5F compared to today, though remain near to below
average across the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

Much more typical springtime conditions return for New Mexico next
week, with breezy to gusty west winds and much drier conditions
elevating fire weather concerns on Tuesday and Wednesday. First,
Sunday looks to be a beautiful spring day as slight ridging overhead
will contribute to light winds, clear skies, and near average
temperatures for an overall benign day of weather. A trough over the
PNW will begin to dig down into the Great Basin early next week,
breaking down the ridge over New Mexico and ushering in drier
southwesterly flow into the region. Conditions will start to get
breezy on Monday afternoon, particularly for western areas with
gusts of 30 to 35 mph. As the trough digs further south and move
east near the Four Corners, winds aloft will continue to accelerate.
A 100 kt upper level jet oriented from SW to NE will stretch across
New Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the mid levels, widespread
700 mb wind speeds of 45 to 55 kts should be able to mix down to the
surface during the afternoons in peak diurnal heating. Meanwhile,
lee side surface troughing will develop in southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico, with some models hinting at surface pressure
dropping to as low as 991 mb near the Oklahoma panhandle. This will
aid in in creating more widespread strong winds over eastern areas,
particularly on Wednesday where locations along and east of the
central mountain chain could see widespread gusts of 45 to 55 kts.
As minimum humidities also drop to the low teens, critical fire
weather conditions look to become widespread on Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. The main limiting factor will be how dry fuels
will get for northern, eastern, and central areas due to the
rainfall from this past week, leading to some green up. Highest
confidence areas for fire weather concerns will be south central and
southwestern parts of the state where ERC percentiles are much
higher.

Guidance is in pretty good agreement for the trough center to remain
over the northern Rockies, with moisture remaining north of the New
Mexico border. As a result, precipitation chances will be nearly
negligible and skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy
throughout the period. Temperatures look to climb 5 to 12 degrees
above average on Monday and Tuesday, particularly for eastern areas
where downsloping winds look to warm the environment into the upper
80s and lower 90s. Southeast New Mexico, especially the Pecos River
valley, will be the main area of concern for hot temperatures.
Ensemble guidance is showing a 70% chance of highs greater than 95
and about a 20% chance temperatures reaching 100 for Roswell on
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures then cool off throughout the state
on Wednesday and Thursday as the Pacific front swings through the
region and pressure heights decrease. Longwave troughing looks to
continue over the western CONUS for the end of the period, with
zonal westerly flow looking to keep things breezy for the Land of
Enchantment on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop off the northern and northwest higher terrain through the
afternoon hours. Any developed shower or storm will drift to the
south-southwest and impact lower elevation areas, mainly with gusty,
erratic outflow winds. Northern and western terminals are favored
for these gusty outflows. Lower chances remain for gusty outflows
and showers across central terminals, except for KSAF where there is
higher confidence in afternoon thunderstorm development. Shower and
storm development diminishes by 06z across the state. Elsewhere
across eastern NM, VFR conditions prevail with northeast winds
through the afternoon with isolated gusts around 20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025

Isolated to scattered showers continue across northern and northwest
NM today and tomorrow, while drier air continues to fill into
western and southern NM through the weekend. Isolated dry lightning
strikes will be possible across northwest and west-central NM
Saturday afternoon. With RH values in the mid to low teens across
western and southern NM, isolated elevated fire weather conditions
are possible this weekend, though will be limited due to the weaker
winds. Critical fire weather conditions begin to ramp up next
weekend due to increasing dry southwest winds and low teen to single
digit humidities, with Tuesday and Wednesday being of highest
confidence. Confidence is highest for critical fire weather
conditions in western and south-central NM considering these areas
have received little to no precipitation over the past week.
Confidence is much lower in areas east of the central mountains and
in northern NM, where hefty amounts of precipitation has fallen
within the past week. ERCs are forecast to remain below the 50th
percentile for these areas, and greenup may have begun to occur.
With that, will continue to evaluate how fuels have reacted to this
rain/snowfall across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  78  47  81 /  20  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  34  72  34  76 /  30  40   0   0
Cuba............................  38  69  40  73 /  30  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  36  75  37  79 /   5  10   0   0
El Morro........................  42  69  41  76 /  10   5   0   0
Grants..........................  37  72  36  78 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  73  40  78 /  10   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  71  45  76 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  41  70  41  75 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  80  37  81 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  84  40  86 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  65  34  69 /  30  40   0   5
Los Alamos......................  44  67  47  72 /  10  20   0   0
Pecos...........................  38  68  40  72 /   5   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  68  39  72 /   0  10   0   0
Red River.......................  28  57  33  61 /   0  10   0   5
Angel Fire......................  24  62  28  66 /   0  10   0   0
Taos............................  32  71  35  74 /   0  10   0   0
Mora............................  32  65  34  72 /   5  10   0   0
Espanola........................  42  75  44  79 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  42  69  45  73 /   5  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  42  73  43  76 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  76  52  79 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  77  49  81 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  48  79  48  83 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  77  49  81 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  45  79  44  83 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  47  78  47  82 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  44  79  44  83 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  47  79  47  83 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  78  45  83 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  49  74  49  78 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  77  49  81 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  81  49  85 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  69  44  74 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  44  72  45  76 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  39  71  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  72  35  78 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  39  71  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  38  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  45  75  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  40  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  36  67  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  36  72  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  71  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  68  39  74 /   5   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  42  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  69  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  44  75  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  74  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  47  75  47  78 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  44  75  45  78 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  75  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  50  80  50  83 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  44  73  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  41  72  42  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...77