483
FXUS65 KABQ 101123 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 423 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

-  Today will be the 4th consecutive day temperatures struggle to
   rise above freezing in many areas. The risk of frostbite and
   hypothermia with prolonged exposure continues. Slick and icy
   roads will persist across southern and eastern NM.

-  Strong westerly winds will develop along the high plains of
   eastern NM Saturday where gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
   Strong crosswinds may lead to hazardous travel conditions.

-  Another round of light snow is expected for the northern
   mountains and portions of central New Mexico late Saturday
   through Sunday. Breezy conditions may result in blowing snow
   and reduced visibility around Raton Pass.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1254 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

Another very cold start to the day across the Land of Enchantment.
Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing this afternoon,
but a brief warm-up is expected on Saturday as westerly winds
increase. Unfortunately, below normal temperatures will return on
Sunday and continue through mid week. Overnight low temperatures
will remain very cold continuing the risk for frostbite and
hypothermia. A weak winter system will bring another round of
light snow to the northern mountains and portions of central New
Mexico late Saturday through Sunday. The Sangre de Cristo
Mountains will be favored for up to 3 inches of snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

Our messy midweek winter storm is slowly exiting east into the south
central U.S. Low clouds across the state are slowly lifting this
morning as very dry air advects in from the north. Very cold wind
chills around zero to negative teens will be the main story
through mid morning as north winds slowly abate across the central
highlands and eastern plains. It will imperative to bundle up and
cover up any exposed skin for the Friday morning commute to avoid
the risk of frostbite and hypothermia. Clear skies are expected
during the day Friday. However, it will still remain cold with
high temperatures well below average for early January in the 30s
to near 40. This is due to the snowpack across southern and
eastern areas and north to northwest flow over the state between
weak ridging over the southern Great Basin and yesterday`s system
moving east across the central U.S. Weak lee side troughing along
the east slopes of the Sangres and Sandia and Manzano Mountains
will result in some breezy northwest winds across the central
highlands, in and around Clines Corners, with some gusts of 30 to
40 mph possible.

Going into the overnight hours, west winds gradually increase after
midnight across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and central and south central highlands due to strengthening 700 mb
flow south of the next upper level trough moving over the northern
and central Rockies. Some gusts of around 40 mph will be possible
just before and around sunrise Saturday morning. These west winds
will prevent strong thermal inversions to develop in places like
Angel Fire. Thermal inversions will have a better chance to develop
in valley locations west of the central mountain chain where winds
will be much lighter. The trough axis moves over the Colorado
Rockies Saturday with New Mexico under brisk 35 to 45 kt west to
northwest flow at 700 mb. Some daytime mixing will help tap into
some of this flow aloft with gusty winds developing along a line
from Farmington to Clovis and Portales during the afternoon hours.
Some gusts of up to 50 mph could be possible across the Central
Highlands, including Clines Corners and Vaughn. Winds will turn
northerly across far northeast NM around midday behind a backdoor
front. These west and northwest winds along with some compressional
heating along the backdoor front will allow temperatures across the
northeast and east central plains to warm up slightly above average
with most other locations getting closer to average. There will
probably be less warming across the southeast plains south of I-40,
compared to the northeast and parts of the east central plains, on
Saturday due to more snow pack and less ABL mixing offsetting some
of the effects from the downslope west to northwest winds. Snow
showers will begin to enter far northeast NM (i.e. Raton Pass)
during the mid to late afternoon hours Saturday as better moisture
and lift from the upper level trough over Colorado move south into
the state. More will be explained below in the beginning of the long
term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

The next upper level shortwave in a series within a longwave
trough will skirt across northern NM late Saturday night through
Sunday. While most models suggest this system will pass as an open
wave, the latest NAM guidance suggests it could briefly close off
over northwest NM. A backdoor cold front will slide southward
across the plains Saturday night and early Sunday and breezy
conditions are possible across the northeast. Weak upslope flow
will allow for snow to develop along the east slopes of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains starting Saturday night. Then, the front
should weakly push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain,
especially north of ABQ, allowing for easterly upslope onto the
Jemez and Tusas Mountains with additional snow showers developing
over these areas. Only light accumulations are expected, generally on
the order of 1-3" mainly over the Sangre de Cristo Mtns. However,
if the NAM is correct, the stronger system could result in
slightly higher snow totals over the Northern Mountains, and light
snow as far south as Ruidoso. Snow should come to an end Sunday
evening.

Another weak wave is possible on Monday and Monday night with no
impacts other than reinforcing the cold. Rather, it looks like
energy from this wave will peel off, deepen into a closed low and
retrograde over the Pacific. While this system meanders over the
Pacific, NM will remain dry, but temperatures will struggle to
warm. Clear and dry conditions with light winds will result in
excellent radiational cooling conditions Sunday night through
Tuesday night. Low temperatures in the single digits and teens
will be common. With temps starting so cold, high temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday will be 10 degrees below normal on average, and
on Wednesday, temps will be near to around 5 degrees below
normal. Frostbite and hypothermia will remain a risk.

At some point mid to late week, the upper low meandering over the
Pacific will be ushered back to the east, likely weakening into an
open wave as it does so. There is considerable uncertainty in both
the timing and path this system will take, but light precipitation
appears possible across NM when it does eventually cross. Low PoPs
for Thursday and beyond are currently broad-brushed due to this
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

SCT low clouds across the middle RGV and southwest mountains
should burn off shortly after sunrise with SKC dominating the
airspace thereafter. Northwest breezes with some gusts of around
25 to 30 kts on a line extending from KFMN to KCQC this afternoon.
Northwest to west winds remain gusty across the central and south
central highlands, including KCQC, tomorrow night. Some gusts of
up to 30 kts possible. Some LLWS possible right along the east
slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains at the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

No critical fire weather conditions expected through late next week.
Well below normal temperatures continue on Friday. Winds will be
much lighter for many, outside of some breezy conditions across the
central highlands. A brief warmup with temperatures closer to normal
for many Saturday as strong west and northwest winds spread across
the region. Some gusts of up to 50 mph possible across the central
highlands. Higher fuel moisture due to the snowfall from earlier in
the week, along with minimum relative humidity in the 25 to 35
percent range will only result in locally elevated fire weather
conditions across the central highlands. Ventilation will be fair to
good across western and northern NM Saturday. Another cold shot
moves in Sunday as a system moves across north central and northeast
NM. Some light snow possible across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and adjacent east slopes. Slow warming trend with dry conditions
Monday into mid next week. Temperatures will be around to slightly
above average come Wednesday and Thursday. Ventilation will be very
poor next week due to minimal surface winds and low mixing heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  14  42  14 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  37   4  40   3 /   0   0  10  20
Cuba............................  35  13  40   8 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  39   8  45   3 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  14  43   9 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  38   7  45   7 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  35  13  43   6 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  33  17  43  13 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  34  17  44  10 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  44   7  55   5 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  18  55  16 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33   8  36   5 /   0   0  10  20
Los Alamos......................  32  20  39  17 /   0   0   0  30
Pecos...........................  35  20  43  15 /   0   0   0  50
Cerro/Questa....................  32  14  38   9 /   0   0  20  50
Red River.......................  24  11  32   4 /   0   0  30  60
Angel Fire......................  28   4  35   2 /   0   0   5  70
Taos............................  34   6  40   7 /   0   0   0  40
Mora............................  35  17  45  11 /   0   0   0  60
Espanola........................  40  13  48  12 /   0   0   0  40
Santa Fe........................  32  20  40  17 /   0   0   0  50
Santa Fe Airport................  35  14  43  15 /   0   0   0  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  23  44  21 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  18  45  20 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  15  47  15 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  20  47  18 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  39  10  46  11 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  41  20  49  17 /   0   0   0  20
Bosque Farms....................  40  11  47  11 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  42  19  49  16 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  40  13  46  13 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  37  22  44  18 /   0   0   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  40  20  49  18 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  38  14  47  15 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  19  41  16 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  34  20  41  17 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  35  18  42  14 /   0   0   0  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  13  45   9 /   0   0   0  30
Clines Corners..................  30  15  40  14 /   0   0   0  40
Mountainair.....................  32  13  41  11 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  32  10  40  11 /   0   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  35  15  42  16 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  29  16  42  15 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  30  13  42  11 /   0   0   5  40
Raton...........................  37  12  47  13 /   0   0   5  50
Springer........................  37  11  50  14 /   0   0   0  40
Las Vegas.......................  37  17  47  14 /   0   0   0  60
Clayton.........................  37  20  48  20 /   0   0   0  20
Roy.............................  37  17  53  18 /   0   0   0  40
Conchas.........................  42  18  58  23 /   0   0   0  40
Santa Rosa......................  38  23  50  21 /   0   0   0  40
Tucumcari.......................  39  17  53  22 /   0   0   0  20
Clovis..........................  34  18  48  24 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  35  16  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  38  15  52  21 /   0   0   0  20
Roswell.........................  38  18  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  37  17  51  18 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  37  14  56  16 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for NMZ208-213-
215-216-221>228-239>241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71