120
FXUS65 KABQ 071108 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
508 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- A few severe storms may produce large hail and damaging wind
  gusts in eastern New Mexico both today and Sunday.

- Showers and storms will expand to central and some western areas
  of the state Monday through Wednesday of next week. Localized
  heavy rainfall will increase the risk of flash flooding,
  particularly over recent burn scars and in urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The upper level pattern is defined by a sprawling upper high over
Old Mexico and TX while a cut-off low is offshore of CA. Weak flow
aloft is currently prevailing across much of the Great Basin, but
vigorous shortwave troughs are ejecting out of the central Rockies
into the central plains. This is leaving NM in the westerlies with
generally 25-35 kt at 500 mb with higher speeds of 50-60 kt at 300
mb. At the surface, cold pools from convection over the plains is
shoving higher surface pressure and low layer moisture into
northeastern NM where low stratus clouds will expand through dawn
with a few storms struggling to regenerate ahead (south) of this
cold pool. Into this afternoon, low stratus clouds will erode, and
destabilization will occur in northeastern NM as surface winds veer
southeasterly. As perturbations aloft slide east southeast, storms
are modeled to initiate over the Sangre de Cristos in southeast CO
and over the eastern foothills and highlands within NM this
afternoon. Elsewhere storms will struggle to initiate, and
confidence was too low to include any POPs south of I-40, so the
northeastern zones were the focus for today. Bulk shear (0-6 km) of
40-50 kt should easily help storms turn strong to severe, just over
a smaller footprint of northeast NM. Temperatures will gain a degree
or two in most zones today, running near to slightly above average
in most zones, except for the northeast where lower clouds and
higher dewpoints will stunt warming a bit.

Storms would dissipate rather quickly this evening as shortwave
energy exits and diurnal heating is lost. Another round of patchy
low stratus clouds will likely develop in northeastern zones again
through early Sunday morning. A deep upper low moving into southern
Manitoba and Ontario will send a cold front down the Great Plains
Sunday which will trigger a northwest-southeast oriented line of
strong to severe storms over eastern CO, southwestern KS, the OK/TX
panhandles, and northeast NM. Remaining areas will stay dry Sunday
with temperatures reaching near or just a few degrees above normal,
and this will mean one more day of near 100 degree heat for Roswell.
An MCS will likely develop Sunday evening, moving toward the Red
River valley (OK/TX) overnight which will shove the cool, moist
boundary farther south and west through interior NM. Dewpoints will
surge upward in the Rio Grande valley and other central areas while
a gusty east gap/canyon wind develops in ABQ and other vulnerable
locales.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

With moisture replenished from Sunday night`s backdoor front,
showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening will be more
numerous than over the weekend. Storms will also initiate further
west over the Continental Divide thanks to increased low-level
moisture. Storms on the very western fringe of this moisture (far
western NM) will be drier in nature due to sub-15% afternoon
humidity, but most storms will be able to produce wetting rainfall
in central and eastern areas. Severe storms will once again be a
threat, with the favored area in the east-central southeast plains
where joint probs of shear/CAPE sufficient for severe storms is
already 50%+. SPC has already put a marginal risk area in central
NM, including both Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Locally heavy rainfall
rates will also pose a threat for urban flash flooding in these
areas. Deeper moisture will also push further south than previous
days, with increased precipitation chances over the Ruidoso complex
of burn scars. Tuesday will be another active storm day with high
(70%+) precipitation chances over both burn scars. Above normal
moisture (PWATs 100-150% of normal) will stick around through
Thursday, allowing for the continuation of showers and storms
favoring central and eastern NM. Both the GEFS and EPS have drier
air punching into western NM late week thanks to amplifying high
pressure to the south over northern Mexico.

This drier southwest flow will bring about an increase in
temperatures, with many areas reaching the highest temps of the
season thus far by the weekend. 90s will become commonplace in most
areas and Roswell has around a 50% chance of reaching 100F each day
Friday through early the following week. How long will this hot and
dry stretch last? Well, the GEFS suggests that a plume of moisture
fro the Gulf of California could get advected in from the south as
early as Monday, bringing back showers and storms, but the EPS keeps
the dry southwest flow around through the entirety of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A surface boundary from earlier thunderstorms continues to push
into northeastern and east central areas of New Mexico, causing
patchy low stratus clouds to develop with some scattered MVFR
(between 1,000-3,000 ft) and very spotty IFR (less than 1,000 ft)
ceilings. Otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail through
the morning. Storms will redevelop in northeastern New Mexico
this afternoon with the potential for hail, gusty downburst
winds, and brief downpours. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail
with light to moderate breezes. Low stratus clouds will redevelop
in northeastern New Mexico late tonight into early Sunday morning
with scattered MVFR to isolated IFR ceilings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The weekend will feature starkly contrasting weather across
southwestern and northeastern NM. The northeastern areas of the
state will stay moist with periodic morning low clouds, excellent
overnight humidity recovery, and afternoon showers and thunderstorms
(some of which will turn strong to severe). Meanwhile, western and
especially southwestern areas will observe seasonably warm to hot
temperatures, very low afternoon humidity (5 to 15 %) and moderate
afternoon breezes.

The weather pattern will shift into Monday and Tuesday though, as
moist outflows from thunderstorms will push westward each day,
advancing the initiation point for new storms farther west into the
Rio Grande valley and even toward the Continental Divide. Storms
would tend to be drier on the western fringe of the moisture push,
generally along and west of the Continental Divide, but a few dry
cells will periodically mix in with cells (especially Monday)
between the Divide and the Rio Grande before rainfall efficiency
improves into Tuesday. This will introduce concerns for new wildfire
ignitions from lightning, especially over southwestern areas where
fuels have not received as much beneficial rainfall as others
lately. Wind concerns will mostly be focused on easterly gap/canyon
winds that will develop Sunday night and Monday morning in
vulnerable locations such as ABQ, Abo Canyon, and Glorieta Pass.
Thunderstorm outflows will of course also cause shorter lived, but
very erratic and strong gusts.

Moisture will be recycled and utilized over the interior high
terrain areas on Wednesday with scattered storms taking shape. Drier
air will start to seep in Thursday as a hint of westerly flow
develops, and the drying trend will be even more apparent into
Friday and next weekend with dwindling storm prospects.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  81  42  83  42 /   5   0   5   5
Cuba............................  82  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  85  45  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  82  49  83  51 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  86  48  86  50 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  86  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  88  57  90  57 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  86  51  87  52 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  92  48  91  46 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  94  53  95  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  75  43  77  44 /  10   0  10  10
Los Alamos......................  80  59  81  56 /   0   5   5  10
Pecos...........................  82  53  83  51 /   5  10  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  77  47  78  48 /  10   5  10  20
Red River.......................  70  39  72  39 /  20   5  20  30
Angel Fire......................  73  34  75  35 /  10  10  10  20
Taos............................  80  45  82  47 /   5   5   5  10
Mora............................  78  47  79  46 /  10  10  20  20
Espanola........................  87  54  88  53 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  84  56  85  55 /   0   5   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  88  54  89  54 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  61  91  62 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  63  92  61 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  57  94  56 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  94  58  95  58 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  92  59  93  59 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  92  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  92  60  93  60 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  93  58  94  57 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  88  59  90  60 /   0   5   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  91  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  96  63  98  63 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  56  86  54 /   0   5   0  10
Tijeras.........................  86  57  87  56 /   0   5   0  10
Edgewood........................  85  52  87  52 /   0   5   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  47  88  49 /   0   5  10  10
Clines Corners..................  82  52  83  52 /   0   5  10  20
Mountainair.....................  86  52  88  52 /   0   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  87  52  89  53 /   0   5   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  91  60  92  59 /   0   5   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  85  53  87  50 /   0   5  10   5
Capulin.........................  76  47  78  48 /  30  30  30  50
Raton...........................  81  47  83  48 /  30  20  20  30
Springer........................  83  48  85  51 /  20  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  80  50  83  49 /  10  10  20  20
Clayton.........................  81  57  84  56 /  20  30  30  30
Roy.............................  79  53  84  53 /  20  10  20  30
Conchas.........................  86  58  92  58 /  10  10  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  87  57  91  57 /   5  10  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  85  59  90  58 /   5  10  20  40
Clovis..........................  88  62  93  59 /   0  10  20  40
Portales........................  90  62  95  58 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  91  60  94  59 /   0   5  20  30
Roswell......................... 100  65 101  65 /   0   5  10  10
Picacho.........................  95  59  97  58 /   0   5  10  10
Elk.............................  93  58  94  55 /   0   5  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52