286
FXUS65 KABQ 192006
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
206 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Shower and storm chances return along and east of the central
mountain chain Friday as moisture gets pulled north ahead of a storm
over southern California. A few strong to severe storms can not be
ruled out. The storm and associated cold front move through the
state Saturday with strong to severe storms possible across eastern
NM ahead of the front. Western and central areas will be generally
dry and windy with cooler temperatures on Saturday behind the cold
front. Dry and cool areawide Sunday and Monday behind the storm.
Rain and storm chances possibly return for northern and eastern
areas Tuesday and most areas Wednesday, but forecast confidence
remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A 593dm H5 high center is positioned over the Big Bend region while
an unseasonably strong 566dm low enters SoCal. A very dry mid and
upper level airmass remains focused across NM today between these
two features. Low level return flow over southeast NM has allowed
surface dewpoints to remain in the 50s and 60s. Impressive moisture
advection will take place tonight as the H5 low moves in from the
west and a high PWAT airmass surges quickly north from the Gulf of
California. Low level moisture will also deepen toward the north and
west overnight. Model PWATs increase to near 0.75" at KABQ and 1.3"
at KROW by Friday morning. Large scale ascent ahead of a 90-100kt
speed max with improving diffluence aloft will convert this moisture
to some sprinkles and a few rain showers over the southern high
terrain before sunrise Friday. Convective coverage will increase
thru the day along and east of the central mt chain. Models are in
very good agreement with surface-based CAPE btwn 500-1000 J/kg,
lifted indices from -2 to -4, and strong bulk shear of 45-55kt. A
couple storms may be strong to perhaps severe in this environment.
The 12Z HREF joint severe wx parameters indicate the area along the
central highlands from Corona to Pecos will have the higher chances
of strong storms. The flash flood threat will be limited to areas
where storms train repeatedly over the same area given storm motions
around 30 mph. The latest HREF max 24-hr QPF Friday has a few strips
of >1.5" and the NBM probability for >0.50" is over 20% in a few of
these same areas. Confidence on a Flash Flood Watch for wildfire
burn scars is too low at this time given the higher chances for
storms is just immediately to the east. If models trend farther west
tonight then a watch may be warranted. Storm coverage will likely
decrease Friday night but a couple showers and storms are still
possible thru Saturday morning. Temps will trend 5 to 10F above
normal with all the cloud cover and moisture in place Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The upper low mentioned in the short term will be over northern AZ
moving northeast over central Colorado by Saturday night. Some
showers will be possible across northwest and north central NM
through the mid afternoon due to some mid level moisture under the
circulation, but much drier air will be quickly surging north and
east along the southern part of the upper low and behind the Pacific
cold front. Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees across western and
central NM on Saturday behind the Pacific front with dry conditions
and gusty southwest to west winds. The bigger story will be across
eastern NM where the Pacific front along with positive CVA ahead of
the upper low circulation will result in the development of more
showers and storms late Saturday morning with fast storm motion to
the northeast. Showers and storms across eastern NM will be capable
of becoming strong to severe due to high surface moisture, MLCAPE
values as high as 2500 J/kg along the front, and effective bulk
shear values of 50 to 60 kts. Main hazards will be large hail with
discrete cells turning more into a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale and coalesce into a line. Storms should exit north and
east of the state during the mid to late evening hours.

Drier air, lighter winds, and CAA behind the system will allow for
effective radiational cooling Saturday night into Sunday morning
with mountain valley locations likely getting below freezing, mid
30s to near 40 across northern and western valley locations, 40s to
around 50 in the middle and lower RGV and 50s across eastern NM. A
backdoor front will push through eastern NM behind the upper low
Sunday morning. Sunday will be dry with below average temperatures
areawide. It will feel like the first day of fall with 60s to low
70s across northern and western NM and upper 70s to low 80s across
the middle and lower RGV and southeast NM. A light east canyon wind
could be possible in the ABQ Metro Sunday night as the backdoor
front tries to seep through the central mountain chain.

Monday will be another dry day with slightly milder temperatures for
most areas outside of southeast NM. Return flow begins to set up
across eastern NM increasing surface moisture slightly. High
forecast uncertainty remains for Tuesday and Wednesday due to
deterministic and ensemble guidance differing in the evolution and
track of an upper level trough/low diving south across the Rockies.
Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF dive the trough south and west
over the Four Corners Tuesday before cutting off from the northern
jet into a closed low over northern AZ Wednesday morning. However,
the ensemble guidance clusters differ with an upper level ridge
centered a little more east over Pacific NW and Great Basin Tuesday
and the upper level trough over the northern Rockies more
progressive and not as deep moving south and east over the central
Great Plains on Tuesday. The further south and west this trough digs
the better rain and storm chances will be for the state, especially
for northern and eastern areas. If the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
pan out, a strong east canyon wind event is in the cards for the ABQ
Metro Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Very dry southwest flow over most of over the region will lead to
tranquil weather with slight breezes thru the evening. A couple
gusty high-based showers may develop over southeast NM between
4pm and 8pm where better moisture has lingered over the area.
Strong moisture advection will arrive overnight with mid level
cloud decks increasing from south to north. Sprinkles and light
rain showers may develop before sunrise over the southern high
terrain then move northward into central NM thru noontime Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for at least
the next 7 days. Western NM will remain dry and breezy with above
normal temperatures thru Friday then a cooldown arrives Saturday.
Moisture will return to central and eastern NM Friday with greater
coverage of showers and storms. Storm motions will be swift toward
the north with locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and
frequent lightning strikes. Flash flooding is possible on wildfire
burn scars however confidence is low given the fast storm motion.
Storms will need to train repeatedly for flooding to occur. Cooler
temperatures will arrive over eastern NM Sunday with a backdoor cold
front. The weather pattern next week still looks highly uncertain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  82  52  72 /   0   0   5  30
Dulce...........................  39  79  43  74 /   0  10  10  50
Cuba............................  47  78  50  73 /   0  10  10  30
Gallup..........................  40  81  42  70 /   0   0   0  30
El Morro........................  47  78  45  69 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  43  82  43  74 /   0   5   0  20
Quemado.........................  46  79  45  71 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  56  80  56  77 /   5  10  10   5
Datil...........................  48  78  48  72 /   0   5   5   5
Reserve.........................  44  81  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  54  85  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  72  44  67 /   0  10  10  70
Los Alamos......................  55  77  56  72 /   0  20  20  40
Pecos...........................  49  74  53  71 /   0  40  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  45  73  49  68 /   0  20  20  60
Red River.......................  42  65  43  59 /   0  20  20  70
Angel Fire......................  32  68  39  63 /   0  30  20  70
Taos............................  42  76  47  72 /   0  20  20  50
Mora............................  45  74  47  68 /   0  40  30  60
Espanola........................  50  83  54  79 /   0  20  20  40
Santa Fe........................  53  77  56  74 /   0  30  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  52  81  55  78 /   0  20  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  85  62  81 /   5  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  87  61  82 /   5  10  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  89  60  84 /   5  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  87  61  82 /   0  10  20  20
Belen...........................  54  89  59  85 /   5  10  10  10
Bernalillo......................  56  88  59  83 /   0  10  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  54  88  58  84 /   5  10  10  10
Corrales........................  54  88  60  83 /   0  10  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  53  88  59  85 /   5  10  10  10
Placitas........................  58  85  59  81 /   0  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  57  87  60  83 /   0  10  20  20
Socorro.........................  61  91  62  87 /   5  10  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  78  54  75 /   0  20  20  30
Tijeras.........................  56  81  56  79 /   0  20  20  30
Edgewood........................  53  80  52  79 /   5  30  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  80  51  80 /   5  30  20  30
Clines Corners..................  52  75  52  76 /   5  40  30  40
Mountainair.....................  56  79  54  78 /   5  30  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  52  78  55  78 /   5  30  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  61  84  61  81 /   5  40  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  55  76  56  74 /   5  50  40  20
Capulin.........................  51  77  53  69 /   5  30  20  80
Raton...........................  46  80  51  71 /   0  30  10  80
Springer........................  46  80  51  74 /   0  30  20  80
Las Vegas.......................  49  76  51  72 /   0  50  30  60
Clayton.........................  60  84  61  74 /   5  30  20  80
Roy.............................  55  78  56  71 /   0  40  40  80
Conchas.........................  57  84  61  81 /   5  40  50  80
Santa Rosa......................  57  79  59  79 /   5  50  50  60
Tucumcari.......................  58  87  62  81 /   5  30  40  80
Clovis..........................  64  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  60
Portales........................  63  93  65  86 /  10  10  10  60
Fort Sumner.....................  59  87  62  84 /   5  40  40  50
Roswell.........................  69  95  70  93 /   5  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  60  88  61  86 /   5  40  20  20
Elk.............................  58  87  58  84 /   5  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42