Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
002 FXUS65 KABQ 281118 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 518 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today, with a low risk of flash flooding outside of very sensitive areas. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across northeast and portions of east central NM Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. - Flash flood threat increases Friday through the weekend in central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity trend higher. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 The Monsoon high is centered over northern MX and forecast to drift north into far west TX and southern NM through Friday, maintaining pressure heights of near 593dam at 500mb. Today is still looking like a relative down day with isolated to scattered daytime heating triggered convection that will focus across northeast NM thanks to a weak backdoor front providing added moisture and forcing. Otherwise, today will be relatively tame with a low threat for flash flooding on area burn scars. The backdoor front will progress southwest to the central mountain chain overnight into Friday, setting the stage for a more active day across eastern and portions of central NM. PWATs will be on the uptrend thanks to moisture behind the backdoor front and Pacific moisture rotating around the upper high circulation across the southern Rockies and northern NM. Thunderstorm coverage will be notably higher on Friday afternoon/evening, but especially along and immediately east of the central mountain chain where both a flash flood and severe threat will reside. Later shifts will need to consider a Flash Flood Watch for Friday afternoon and evening, for the burn scars at a minimum. The greatest threat for severe storms on Friday will be across northeast NM, where stronger westerlies will help to create bulk shear values of 30-40kts and sbCAPE is forecast to reach to 3,000J/kg or higher. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Convection across eastern NM will be steered into the TX/OK Panhandles Friday evening and send outflow back west toward the central mountain chain, setting the stage for another active day on Saturday. The threat for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist Saturday, especially for the Ruidoso area burn scars where notable qpf bullseyes are being modeled by the 00Z model runs. The upper high is forecast to weaken on Saturday and then reposition over UT/NV going into early next week, which will allow moisture to work further north and west across the state and bring improved chances for storms to areas that will mostly miss out through Saturday. Chances for storms will improve for the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros early next week as more favorable north to south steering flow develops with the upper high over the Great Basin. This pattern will allow more notable backdoor front to impact eastern NM toward the middle of next week, which will recharge moisture and keep temperatures on the cooler side. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with a couple of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible with iso/sct showers and storms across eastern NM today, but probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. A backdoor front will bring areas of low stratus overnight that will likely impact both KLVS and KTCC with MVFR cigs. The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ overnight, but with gusts well below Airport Weather Warning criteria. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A backdoor front will recharge moisture across eastern NM Thursday and bring an uptick in humidity and coverage of wetting storms by Friday and into the weekend. Moisture will gradually move further west and north across the state late in the weekend and into next week as the upper high repositions to over UT/NV. This transition will bring improved humidity and chances for wetting rain to central and western NM relative to the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 84 63 84 59 / 5 5 10 0 Dulce........................... 82 46 82 45 / 10 10 30 10 Cuba............................ 81 55 82 53 / 10 10 40 10 Gallup.......................... 82 55 84 51 / 10 10 20 5 El Morro........................ 80 55 81 53 / 20 20 50 20 Grants.......................... 83 56 86 54 / 10 10 50 10 Quemado......................... 82 55 82 54 / 20 20 60 20 Magdalena....................... 83 61 84 59 / 20 20 60 40 Datil........................... 81 56 81 54 / 20 20 70 30 Reserve......................... 89 54 90 53 / 30 20 60 20 Glenwood........................ 93 59 94 59 / 30 20 50 20 Chama........................... 77 47 77 45 / 20 5 50 10 Los Alamos...................... 79 60 79 58 / 10 5 50 20 Pecos........................... 80 55 79 54 / 10 10 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 53 79 51 / 20 20 60 30 Red River....................... 69 45 68 43 / 30 20 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 73 42 74 42 / 30 20 60 30 Taos............................ 81 52 82 49 / 10 10 40 20 Mora............................ 77 48 76 48 / 20 20 60 30 Espanola........................ 86 58 87 56 / 10 10 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 81 60 81 59 / 10 10 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 58 85 57 / 5 10 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 67 89 67 / 5 5 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 66 91 64 / 5 5 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 65 93 64 / 5 5 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 66 91 64 / 5 5 30 20 Belen........................... 91 63 93 61 / 5 10 40 30 Bernalillo...................... 90 65 92 63 / 5 5 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 91 62 92 60 / 5 5 30 30 Corrales........................ 91 65 92 64 / 5 5 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 91 64 92 62 / 5 5 30 30 Placitas........................ 86 63 87 62 / 5 5 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 90 65 91 64 / 5 5 30 20 Socorro......................... 93 67 94 65 / 10 10 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 57 83 57 / 5 5 40 30 Tijeras......................... 83 59 84 59 / 5 5 40 30 Edgewood........................ 85 55 83 54 / 5 5 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 54 84 53 / 5 5 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 81 56 78 55 / 5 10 50 30 Mountainair..................... 85 57 84 56 / 10 5 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 84 57 83 57 / 10 10 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 88 64 89 63 / 20 10 70 60 Ruidoso......................... 79 59 77 58 / 30 10 80 50 Capulin......................... 75 53 75 52 / 50 50 80 70 Raton........................... 80 53 79 51 / 50 30 70 50 Springer........................ 83 55 81 53 / 40 30 50 40 Las Vegas....................... 80 54 79 52 / 20 20 60 40 Clayton......................... 80 60 78 59 / 20 30 50 70 Roy............................. 82 57 78 56 / 30 30 50 60 Conchas......................... 89 62 86 62 / 20 20 30 60 Santa Rosa...................... 88 60 82 60 / 10 10 50 50 Tucumcari....................... 87 60 83 59 / 10 20 20 70 Clovis.......................... 91 64 88 64 / 5 10 20 60 Portales........................ 92 65 89 64 / 5 10 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 92 65 87 64 / 5 10 30 50 Roswell......................... 97 69 93 68 / 10 10 30 40 Picacho......................... 90 62 85 61 / 20 10 60 40 Elk............................. 86 59 84 59 / 30 10 60 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11