Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
957 FXUS65 KABQ 100826 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 226 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 - A one-two punch of moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and eventually Tropical Storm Raymond will bring daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and west of the central mountain chain, into the middle of next week. - Marginal to Slight risks of excessive rainfall, mainly over portions of western NM, will be present each day through the weekend into early next week. A Flood Watch is in effect for Farmington and the Four Corners area for Friday into Saturday. - Cooler temperatures across the area Monday behind a back-door cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 A batch of light rain continues on radar at this hour, moving into mainly western Rio Arriba County. This area of precipitation is on the edge of the very moist plume moving up around the mid/upper- level high currently centered over west Texas. Much of this moisture has its origins in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Priscilla, currently spinning and weakening just west of the Baja spur. Overall, not really a lot of change in the short-term forecast thinking. Signal for heavy rain today is focused on the area near the Four Corners, where near climo max precipitable water values of 1.1-1.2 inches will be present within the aforementioned moist plume, along with increasing lift over time, as the synoptic-scale trough aloft over the Pacific Northwest continues to move inland. Have issued a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for the Four Corners zone (Northwest Plateau, including Farmington) from 18Z today through 00Z Sun. Still some degree of uncertainty, with CAMs generally putting the greatest QPF just north of the border in Colorado, along the western slopes of the San Juan Mountains, but it`s a little too close for comfort, especially considering NBM 5.0 75th percentile values QMD QPF of 1.5-2.2 inches through 00Z Sun in the northern half of that zone. There is likely to be a gradient in precip amounts across this zone from northwest to southeast. Otherwise, further south and east, scattered more garden-variety thunderstorms are likely to develop elsewhere across the northwestern third where the sun can break through and generate some surface-based instability. Influence of the upper high should keep areas east of the central mountains dry today. Overnight, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms continue over northwestern NM, fueled by the continued moisture surge and approaching upper-level trough. In fact, into Saturday, a 90-knot jet max at H25 moves into the Four Corners. This will probably be the most impactful day, on a CWA-wide basis, of this first moisture burst. The Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall presses further eastward into New Mexico, toward the Continental Divide and the Chuska Mountains, with the Marginal Category extending to the Central Mountain Chain. Moreover, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storms into extreme western San Juan County for Saturday, with the main threats of hail and damaging wind. Although instability will be limited, with most guidance indicating ~500 J/kg of CAPE, deep-layer shear of 35-50 knots should be enough to overcome this in an environment of large-scale lift. Meanwhile, lee-side troughing brings breezy to gusty conditions to northeastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Rain, moderate to potentially heavy at times, is progged to continue well into Saturday evening along and west of the central mountain chain, before some subtle changes move in for Sunday. As the trough over the northwestern CONUS moves inland to the northern Rockies, some drier air aloft moves in over the northern half of NM on more WSW flow. Meanwhile, remnant moisture and even some sheared out remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond move across southern NM, where the highest precip chances and QPF will focus. Unfortunately, this does bring 60-70% PoPs back to the Ruidoso area burn scars on Sunday, with the higher QPF amounts uncomfortably close to the south. Lee surface troughing again brings some breezy conditions to eastern NM. Into Sunday night, the aforementioned trough moving into the northern Rockies sends a fairly strong back-door cold front into NM from the northeast, which looks to eventually press all the way to the Continental Divide. Forecast high temps for Monday are 8-12F below normal for areas behind the front. This front also meets some renewed tropical moisture, seemingly associated with the remnants of Raymond, leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms focused over central NM from Monday into at least the first part of Tuesday. WPC already has this area in a Slight Risk in the ERO for Monday, with the Ruidoso burn scars perhaps again under the gun. The post-frontal airmass will be cooler and more stable however, which should help to mitigate rainfall rates. Heading into the middle and later part of next week, southwest flow aloft is maintained, as the general pattern of West Coast troughing and a high aloft near the Texas Gulf coast continues. However, at this time, it appears the moist plume becomes more diffuse, with more isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 KGUP and especially KFMN will see the most weather impacts over the next 24 hours. Latest GOES mid-level water-vapor channel satellite imagery clearly shows a moist plume, originating with Tropical Storm Priscilla, located off the Baja Spur, circulating around an upper high over west Texas, funneling deep moisture up through AZ and into northwestern NM. Short-term model guidance keeps mainly light rain/showers near the Four Corners through much of the remainder of tonight, with attendant MFVR at KFMN, potentially dropping to higher- end IFR early in the morning (though low-medium confidence on this). Thunderstorms redevelop there at and at KGUP Friday afternoon. Otherwise, terminals from the RGV eastward will see persistent cloud cover, though mainly VFR, and some afternoon breezes from the S/SW. Pattern suggests some low MVFR or even IFR clouds/mist could occur at KLVS later tonight, but have tempered this due to little support from model guidance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven days. Widespread wetting rains, favoring areas along and west of the central mountain chain, will occur in several rounds through early next week. Breezy to gusty conditions develop over northeastern NM on Saturday afternoon, with RH`s falling to 20-30% over Union County on Sunday, both due to lee-side troughing. However, fuels states remain unreceptive, per latest ERC`s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 57 70 53 / 70 80 80 70 Dulce........................... 68 47 64 44 / 60 80 80 80 Cuba............................ 71 50 66 48 / 40 50 80 60 Gallup.......................... 73 52 67 49 / 50 70 70 60 El Morro........................ 70 52 65 49 / 50 50 70 60 Grants.......................... 72 52 69 49 / 40 50 70 50 Quemado......................... 73 52 70 49 / 20 40 70 60 Magdalena....................... 72 56 72 54 / 10 10 70 40 Datil........................... 69 51 70 50 / 20 30 80 50 Reserve......................... 78 52 75 51 / 20 30 70 70 Glenwood........................ 83 57 79 54 / 10 40 70 70 Chama........................... 65 45 59 42 / 60 70 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 70 54 64 52 / 20 20 70 60 Pecos........................... 70 50 66 49 / 10 20 50 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 49 64 49 / 20 20 50 40 Red River....................... 63 42 56 41 / 20 20 60 40 Angel Fire...................... 67 36 63 39 / 20 20 50 40 Taos............................ 73 49 67 48 / 20 20 50 40 Mora............................ 70 45 66 46 / 20 20 40 40 Espanola........................ 78 55 71 52 / 20 20 60 50 Santa Fe........................ 72 54 67 52 / 20 20 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 53 70 51 / 20 10 60 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 62 74 58 / 10 10 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 60 76 56 / 10 10 60 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 59 78 56 / 10 10 60 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 60 75 56 / 10 10 60 50 Belen........................... 80 57 78 55 / 10 10 50 50 Bernalillo...................... 80 60 76 55 / 10 10 60 50 Bosque Farms.................... 80 57 77 53 / 10 10 60 50 Corrales........................ 80 60 76 56 / 10 10 60 50 Los Lunas....................... 80 59 77 55 / 10 10 60 50 Placitas........................ 75 58 72 54 / 10 10 60 50 Rio Rancho...................... 79 60 75 56 / 10 10 60 50 Socorro......................... 81 61 80 57 / 10 10 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 54 69 51 / 10 20 60 60 Tijeras......................... 72 55 70 52 / 10 20 60 60 Edgewood........................ 73 50 71 49 / 10 20 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 49 73 48 / 10 10 50 50 Clines Corners.................. 70 50 69 50 / 5 10 30 50 Mountainair..................... 72 52 72 51 / 10 10 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 73 52 73 51 / 5 10 20 50 Carrizozo....................... 75 57 77 57 / 5 5 20 50 Ruidoso......................... 68 51 71 54 / 10 10 20 50 Capulin......................... 72 50 71 50 / 5 5 10 10 Raton........................... 75 49 74 48 / 5 5 10 10 Springer........................ 77 52 76 50 / 5 5 10 20 Las Vegas....................... 70 50 68 51 / 10 10 20 30 Clayton......................... 79 57 79 59 / 5 5 5 5 Roy............................. 74 54 74 54 / 5 5 5 10 Conchas......................... 80 57 81 59 / 5 5 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 76 55 77 56 / 5 5 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 80 57 82 59 / 5 5 5 10 Clovis.......................... 82 57 82 60 / 5 5 5 10 Portales........................ 83 58 83 62 / 5 5 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 79 57 80 59 / 5 5 5 20 Roswell......................... 82 59 84 62 / 5 5 5 20 Picacho......................... 77 54 81 58 / 5 5 10 30 Elk............................. 75 51 77 56 / 5 5 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...11/53