576
FXUS65 KABQ 011721 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1121 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A dry cold front from the east and northeast will bring cooler
temperatures to all but areas west of the Continental Divide
today. Brisk east and southeast winds this morning will gradually
weaken during the late morning and early afternoon. The cooler
weather will not last long, warming back up to well above typical
values for early October Wednesday through the weekend. Dry
weather is expected to continue, outside of a rouge afternoon shower
or sprinkles Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1237 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A frontal boundary is pushing south and westward thru eastern NM
this morning, sent down from a shortwave trough quickly passing
eastward over the northern Great Plains. There is a notable 1031mb
MLSP surface high over western NE allowing for a sharp pressure
gradient associated with the fropa resulting in gusty 25 to 35 mph
wind gusts. These northeasterly winds have already passed thru
Clayton and Tucumcari this early hour and are expected to advance
thru the gaps of the central mountain chain to Santa Fe and
Albuquerque and Clovis the rest of this morning, losing some steam
as it reaches Roswell. This frontal boundary will reach the
Continental Divide and then the AZ border later this morning
bringing an easterly to southeasterly wind shift to Gallup and
Farmington. Some upslope flow along the Continental Divide may
combine with daytime heating to produce a stray virga shower or
sprinkle over spots of west-central NM this afternoon. The main
sensible weather impact from this frontal boundary aside from the
gusty winds this morning will be the sharp 10F to 20F drop in high
temperatures thru eastern NM. Highs fall from the low to mid 90s
yesterday into the 70s.

Winds weaken thru the day, veering out of the south and becoming
more light and variable Wednesday. Temperatures rebound as well
Wednesday, climbing 10F to 15F across eastern NM right back into the
upper 80s to 90F. It will be another warm, dry and mostly calm day
across the Land of Enchantment Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1237 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Weather prediction models remain in good agreement regarding
Thursday, separating once phased monsoon and Pacific subtropical
highs. The monsoon high returns over far southeast CA and western
AZ Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the monsoon high is forecast to
be smack dab over NM. Near record highs return to much of central
and northern NM Friday afternoon as a result. Models continue to
agree through the weekend with the monsoon high getting forced
southwestward over northern Baja by a closed upper low sliding
just north of the Canadian border. Temperatures trend down
slightly center and west Saturday only to rebound back to near
record highs again Sunday as the monsoon high (progged to be
around 593 dam @ 500 mb) shifts back eastward over NM.

Early next week, more robust closed lows racing eastward through the
Gulf of AK are forecast to squash the monsoon high farther south
and southwestward as it phases once again with the Pacific High,
also lowering 500 mb heights over NM down (to ~ 588 dam) closer
to average for early October. High temperatures respond in kind
cooling a few degrees, although remaining above 1991-2020
averages both days. Not much changes late next week and through
much of the first half of October. Anomalous upward motion in the
tropics results in anomalous downward motion in subtropical and
lower mid latitudes in summer and fall. Typically, however, it
doesn`t continue this late into the year. Warm the equatorial
Pacific (positive ENSO phase/El Nino), the Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico basins to 5 standard deviations above average in winter
and spring 2024 and this is the end result, subtropical highs in
the northern hemisphere (NH) on High Growth Hormones (HGH). What
does that mean going forward? Likely the warmest Balloon Fiesta
on record along with a quick transition from summer to winter is
likely sometime in November as a result of the two separate
climate regimes the NH is currently in. It`s currently winter
north of about 50 degrees latitude and summer in the tropics,
subtropics and mid latitudes. The clash between these two
completely different worlds, possibly similar to fall 2020, is
coming in November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Northeast and east winds across central and eastern TAF sites will
continue to decrease early this afternoon veering to a southerly
direction this afternoon for most areas. Some south gusts of
around 20 to 25 kts possible at KSAF and KLVS late this afternoon.
Drier mid level air will result in less cumulus buildups over the
higher terrain this afternoon with a low chance for a few
sprinkles in Catron County near the AZ border and in the Tusas
Mountains near the CO border. Clear skies and light winds after
sunset. Southwest winds ramp up across the northeast and east
central plains near the TX border tomorrow morning due to the
development of a surface lee trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024

No critical fire weather forecast thru the next seven days. A cold
front is advancing thru eastern NM this morning bringing with it a
six to twelve hour period of gusty winds to the eastern plains and
thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. A northeasterly to
easterly wind shift associated with the frontal passage will veer
out of the south later today. Lighter winds return Wednesday with
the next frontal boundary entering northeastern NM Thursday.
Thursday`s frontal boundary will not be as strong, and winds veer
back out of the south by Friday. High pressure centered to the west
of the area migrates over NM by Friday, getting pushed back west
this coming weekend. Aside from the 10-20 degree drop in
temperatures thru eastern NM today, temperatures will remain well
above normal. There is little to no chance for precipitation, aside
from a stray virga shower over parts of western and northern NM
today and Wednesday. Some moisture will try to enter eastern NM from
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  83  39  84 /   0   5   0   0
Cuba............................  47  81  47  82 /   0  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  44  85  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  47  80  47  81 /   0  10   0   0
Grants..........................  43  85  44  86 /   0  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  81  47  82 /   0  10   5   0
Magdalena.......................  49  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  79  47  81 /   0  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  43  86  44  89 /   0  10   5   0
Glenwood........................  52  87  56  92 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  42  77  42  78 /   0   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  52  78  53  80 /   0  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  78  51  81 /   0  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  46  78  47  78 /   0  10   0   0
Red River.......................  42  68  42  68 /   0  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  73  32  74 /   0  10   0   0
Taos............................  42  81  42  81 /   0  10   0   0
Mora............................  43  78  47  78 /   0  10   0   5
Espanola........................  47  86  47  88 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  79  53  81 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  83  49  84 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  84  57  87 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  88  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  47  87  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  51  88  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  45  86  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  52  88  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  86  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  84  54  86 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  87  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  54  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  78  50  80 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  51  81  47  83 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  82  43  84 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  40  84  41  86 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  79  47  81 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  46  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  79  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  51  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  44  76  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  46  81  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  42  85  46  83 /   0   5   0   0
Springer........................  42  86  45  85 /   0   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  82  47  81 /   0  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  86  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  49  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  50  89  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  48  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  50  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  53  88  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  52  88  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  86  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  90  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  45  83  51  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...71