358
FXUS65 KABQ 181129 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

- High flash flood threat below recent burn scars through Tuesday.
  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Ruidoso area today from
  11AM until 9PM.

- The greatest coverage of storms through Tuesday will be across
  southern areas and also along and just east of the central
  mountain chain with isolated flash flooding possible daily
  through Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms are expected over
  northeast areas today and Tuesday.

- Decreasing storm coverage and increasing temperatures mid-week,
  creating moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations
  and potentially major heat risk in the Four Corners region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

A robust cluster of storms associated with a shortwave has continued
into the early morning hours in Sonora. These storms will continue
to push sfc moisture into New Mexico from the south early tomorrow,
surging dewpoints even higher in south-central New Mexico where
PWATs will be above the 90th percentile. The center of the High
will be centered over northeastern NM by the time of convective
initiation today. While steering flow will be very weak, this
subtle shift will result in moist upslope flow along the central
mountain chain and should lead to slightly higher coverage of
storms compared to Saturday. Storms on the northern edge of the
moisture will be drier in nature, however storms further south
will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall. CAMs are
bullish on storms dumping heavy rainfall over the Ruidoso area
burn scars, with the HREF 50th percentile showing 0.5-1" and the
90th percentile showing 1.5-2" over all of the area burn scars.
Heavy rainfall with this large of coverage would likely produce
extensive and destructive impacts. Diurnally driven storms will
decrease in coverage in the evening, with only a few showers
lingering in the southeast after Midnight.

The Monsoon High will re-center itself over the Four Corners Tuesday
afternoon. Storms will focus over the northern mountains and
northeast plains as a weak disturbance moves in from the north. Bulk
shear increases to nearly 30KT and sfc-based CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
could support marginally large hail and strong wind gusts with
storms that develop along the leading edge of a boundary that will
be surging in from the north. Moisture sufficient for storms will
push further west so storm chances will trend up a tad across the
west, despite the lower overall coverage of storms. A weak backdoor
front associated with the aformentioned disturbance will push south
and westward during the evening, creating little in the way of
impacts since gusty winds will be very localized at the mouths of
canyons and should remain below 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The Monsoon High will remain parked over the Four Corners region
Wednesday through the weekend, allowing moisture to recycle each
day. Moisture will be near to slightly above normal (in the
northwest), with weak steering flow from the northeast. This will be
a favorable pattern for the Ruidoso area since it will generally
push storms away from the area burn scars and since it will keep
more robust moisture away. Temperatures will generally be above
average each day from mid-week onward, with highs as much as 10
degrees above average in the northwest where 500mb heights will be
highest. Long-term guidance is in good agreement that ridging will
persist over the western CONUS through the weekend into the early
part of the following week, with troughing over the eastern half of
the country. If one of these troughs embedded within the larger
longwave trough moves into the central plains, it could surge
moisture in from the north and east and increase rain chances. It`s
not clear yet how robust this moisture surge will be since the main
long-term model disagreement is how deep the trough will be over The
Great Lakes region early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Scattered showers and storms will develop around 17Z, favoring
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area through the
afternoon. Storms will become outflow dominant as they move off
the terrain, producing wind gusts up to 40KT. VFR conditions will
continue to prevail, outside of brief MVFR to IFR visibility under
stronger storms. Convective coverage will decrease after 02Z,
with only a few showers lingering past 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Scattered storms today and tomorrow will focus over southern and
eastern areas, with the potential for dry storms on the northern
fringes of the moisture (north-central NM). Wetting rainfall will be
localized, but some areas could receive 1"+ within an hour or two
under heavier storms. Storms decrease in coverage mid-week as
temperatures rise to 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Isolated
storms Wednesday through Friday will favor the western and northern
high terrain, with little to no storms elsewhere. Storm coverage may
begin to increase this weekend into the early portion of the
following weak (moderate confidence). Light winds will continue to
prevail in most areas outside of gusty outflow winds near showers
and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  61  98  65 /   0   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  91  49  93  53 /   5   5  20  20
Cuba............................  89  56  89  57 /  20  10  30  20
Gallup..........................  91  54  92  58 /  10  10  20  20
El Morro........................  86  56  87  57 /  20  30  40  40
Grants..........................  90  57  90  57 /  20  20  30  30
Quemado.........................  86  57  86  57 /  50  30  60  40
Magdalena.......................  86  62  86  62 /  50  40  40  40
Datil...........................  83  56  83  57 /  60  30  50  40
Reserve.........................  90  56  89  55 /  50  20  70  40
Glenwood........................  92  60  92  60 /  50  40  70  40
Chama...........................  85  50  86  51 /  20   5  30  20
Los Alamos......................  86  62  85  61 /  30  20  40  20
Pecos...........................  85  57  83  56 /  50  20  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  85  55  84  54 /  40  10  50  20
Red River.......................  74  46  74  46 /  50  10  60  20
Angel Fire......................  78  40  77  41 /  50  20  60  20
Taos............................  88  52  87  54 /  30  10  40  20
Mora............................  81  51  80  51 /  50  20  60  30
Espanola........................  94  58  94  60 /  20  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  87  62  86  61 /  40  20  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  91  59  90  59 /  30  20  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  66  92  67 /  40  30  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  67  93  68 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  64  95  66 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  66  94  67 /  20  20  20  30
Belen...........................  94  64  94  64 /  20  30  20  30
Bernalillo......................  95  64  95  65 /  20  20  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  95  62  94  63 /  20  30  20  30
Corrales........................  95  65  95  66 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  95  64  94  64 /  20  30  20  30
Placitas........................  92  64  91  64 /  20  20  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  95  66  94  66 /  20  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  94  66  95  67 /  50  30  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  60  87  60 /  40  30  40  30
Tijeras.........................  87  61  88  61 /  40  30  40  30
Edgewood........................  89  56  88  58 /  40  30  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  54  89  56 /  40  30  30  30
Clines Corners..................  83  57  82  58 /  40  30  30  30
Mountainair.....................  86  57  86  58 /  50  30  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  85  57  84  58 /  60  40  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  85  63  87  63 /  70  30  40  30
Ruidoso.........................  77  58  78  59 /  80  30  50  30
Capulin.........................  83  55  84  54 /  50  30  40  20
Raton...........................  89  54  86  54 /  50  20  40  20
Springer........................  90  54  88  55 /  30  20  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  85  54  84  54 /  50  30  50  30
Clayton.........................  91  63  89  62 /  30  20  20  30
Roy.............................  88  58  86  58 /  30  30  30  30
Conchas.........................  95  64  92  63 /  30  30  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  91  62  89  62 /  30  40  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  92  64  91  62 /  20  30  20  40
Clovis..........................  93  66  92  65 /  30  30  20  40
Portales........................  94  66  94  65 /  40  30  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  93  66  92  66 /  20  40  20  30
Roswell.........................  96  70  96  70 /  30  30  20  30
Picacho.........................  89  63  88  63 /  50  30  30  30
Elk.............................  85  59  85  59 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16