899
FXUS65 KABQ 041811
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1211 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Much drier and warmer conditions continue Saturday aside from a
few strong to isolated severe storms possible over northeast and
east-central New Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Daily rounds of afternoon storms developing over the mountains
before drifting over nearby lower elevations in the evening begins
Sunday and through next week. Locally heavy rainfall threatening
flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars will be the rule
each afternoon.

- Temperatures climb above normal across central and western NM
Saturday then continue through next week. Moderate to locally major
heat risk will increase the risk for heat-related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Drier and warmer temperatures for the July 4th Holiday continue
through this evening with breezy westerlies calming past sunset. The
drier weather holds true for most of northern and central NM
Saturday as the 594dm H5 high repositions itself squarely over south-
central NM. The exception will be along the northeastern highlands
just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts where low-level moisture will
ride upslope beneath light westerly flow aloft. Model guidance
continues to show high confidence for afternoon convection beginning
along the I-25 corridor between Las Vegas to Raton in the early
afternoon before sliding east to southeast over northeastern NM
during the late afternoon hours. Southeasterly inflow accompanied by
dewpoints in the 60s will yield 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE alongside
25-30kts of bulk shear. A couple strong to severe storms will be
able to organize in this environment as they track southeast into
east-central NM by the late afternoon and evening hours, and SPC
does have a marginal risk for severe weather in this area. Strong to
potentially severe storms threatening hail and gusty winds could
reach as far as Clovis and Portales in the evening hours before
exiting into TX. Outflow from this convective activity is expected
to enhance a westerly push of low-level moisture through the gaps of
the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley Saturday
night. East canyon winds into Santa Fe and Albuquerque are likely as
a result, bringing gusts of 25 to 30 mph into the metro areas near
midnight lasting into the predawn hours of Sunday morning. Lighter
winds over eastern NM alongside pools of higher moisture content
will likely yield some patchy fog over the Caprock Saturday night as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The H5 ridge continues to build in size across the desert southwest
Sunday as the westerly push of low-level moisture advances into the
Rio Grande Valley and portions of southwestern NM. This will allow
for a more typical monsoon pattern of daily rounds of afternoon
thunderstorms developing along the central mountain chain and
southwestern mountains near noon before drifting over surrounding
lower elevations of central, eastern, and southern NM in the late
afternoon and evening. Monday sees the highest afternoon
thunderstorm coverage in these areas with the highest moisture
content to work with. Weak steering flow associated with the H5 high
will yield slow storm motions and locally heavy rainfall threatening
flash flooding in already soaked, low-lying and poorly drained
areas, and recent burn scars both Sunday and Monday. Moisture
recycling beneath the high will continue this diurnal convective
trend through the work week with slowly lowering precipitation
chances each day thereafter. But don`t expect a totally clear day to
occur, unless your closer to the Four Corners region.

Hot temperatures will reside beneath the aforementioned H5 high,
notably over western NM and into the Rio Grande Valley. Lower
elevation areas will see highs climb into the upper 90s to near 100,
especially by Wednesday. Moderate to locally high heat risk will
result across western and central NM each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR prevails as breezy prevailing westerly to northwesterly winds
increase this afternoon. Wind speeds subside this evening b/w 01Z to
03Z. Patchy fog and low clouds will again try to redevelop late
tonight into Saturday morning over portions of east-central NM from
KTCC to KCVN, perhaps as far as KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Drier westerlies kick in to much of northern and central NM this
afternoon lowering humidity considerably, but remaining near or
above critical levels. MinRH falls to near 10 percent along and west
of the Rio Grande Saturday as temperatures warm up. However, a dome
of high pressure developing squarely overhead NM will limit wind
potential. Combined with recent wetting rains, there is little to no
fire weather concerns. The monsoon high remains and strengthens
Sunday and through next week with light prevailing winds and above
normal temperatures each day. Daily rounds of afternoon
thunderstorms developing over the mountains before moving over
surrounding lower elevations each later afternoon and evening will
be the rule through next week. Monday will see the highest coverage
of thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  93  59  95 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  44  90  43  91 /   0   0   0  20
Cuba............................  54  89  57  89 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  48  90  49  92 /   0   0  10  20
El Morro........................  52  88  55  89 /   0   0  10  30
Grants..........................  51  92  54  92 /   0   0   5  30
Quemado.........................  53  88  57  90 /   0  10  20  50
Magdalena.......................  61  89  62  91 /   0   0   0  30
Datil...........................  56  87  57  89 /   0   5   5  40
Reserve.........................  50  95  54  95 /   0  20  10  40
Glenwood........................  52  98  59  98 /   0  20  10  40
Chama...........................  46  84  47  84 /   0   0   0  30
Los Alamos......................  61  85  61  86 /   0   5   0  40
Pecos...........................  59  87  57  86 /   0  10  10  60
Cerro/Questa....................  53  86  54  86 /   0  10   5  40
Red River.......................  45  76  44  77 /   0  20   5  50
Angel Fire......................  36  79  39  79 /   0  20   5  60
Taos............................  50  89  51  88 /   0   5   5  40
Mora............................  51  84  49  83 /   0  20  10  60
Espanola........................  57  93  59  94 /   0   0   5  30
Santa Fe........................  61  87  61  89 /   0   5  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  57  90  59  92 /   0   5   5  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  96  67  95 /   0   0   5  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  95  65  97 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  97  65  99 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  66  97 /   0   0   0  20
Belen...........................  59  96  62  98 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  62  96  65  98 /   0   0   0  20
Bosque Farms....................  55  96  61  98 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  63  96  65  98 /   0   0   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  57  96  62  98 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  62  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  30
Rio Rancho......................  64  95  65  97 /   0   0   0  20
Socorro.........................  69  98  67 100 /   0   0   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  88  58  89 /   0   0   5  30
Tijeras.........................  61  88  60  92 /   0   0   5  30
Edgewood........................  55  88  54  91 /   0   0   5  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  52  92 /   0   0   5  40
Clines Corners..................  57  85  57  84 /   0   5  10  40
Mountainair.....................  57  89  56  90 /   0   0   5  30
Gran Quivira....................  58  90  56  90 /   0   0   5  40
Carrizozo.......................  64  94  65  91 /   0   0   5  40
Ruidoso.........................  60  88  58  83 /   0   5   5  60
Capulin.........................  54  83  54  81 /  10  30  30  50
Raton...........................  55  87  55  86 /   5  30  20  50
Springer........................  56  89  56  88 /   5  20  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  87  55  84 /   0  20  10  50
Clayton.........................  63  91  62  87 /   5  20  30  30
Roy.............................  59  88  59  84 /   5  20  20  40
Conchas.........................  64  94  65  93 /   0  20  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  63  93  63  90 /   0  10  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  64  92  65  89 /   0  10  30  20
Clovis..........................  64  93  67  90 /   0   5  30  20
Portales........................  64  95  67  92 /   0   5  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  65  96  66  93 /   0  10  20  20
Roswell.........................  69 100  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
Picacho.........................  65  95  64  91 /   0   0  10  40
Elk.............................  63  94  60  87 /   0   5   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24