Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
141 FXUS65 KABQ 182138 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 338 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 - Warm and windy conditions with high fire danger return to much of central and eastern NM today, with more blowing dust possible across south central and southeast areas. - Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern areas late today through Saturday evening as a storm system moves across the state. Moderate travel impacts are likely in the northern mountains. Late season freezing temperatures may impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico late Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Warmer and drier weather returns early next week with the potential for a few thunderstorms near the TX border. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Three different airmasses are currently sharing New Mexico, with a winter storm system entering the Four Corners, a backdoor cold front in the northeast, and warm southwesterly flow over south-central areas. The winter system will continue trudging across the state on Saturday, bringing increased chances of precipitation and much colder temperatures throughout the region. Several inches of snowfall for the northern mountains will create minor and localized moderate winter weather impacts. The system exits the region on Sunday with conditions remaining drier and warmer to begin the next week. Some Gulf moisture will seep its way into eastern New Mexico during the middle of the week, increasing chances for afternoon thunderstorms for areas along the Texas border. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 It`s quite an interesting weather set-up across central and northern New Mexico today. There are three distinct airmasses present across the state as of this afternoon. Dry southwest winds across south- central and southeastern New Mexico have brought plumes of elevated blowing dust from northern Mexico and southern New Mexico, but no significant visibility reductions have been observed in the CWA thus far today. A backdoor front is draped across the northeastern potion of the state, keeping temperatures cooler than expected this afternoon in locations such as Clayton and Tucumcari. And lastly, a potent late season winter storm is entering from the northwest this afternoon, bringing much cooler temperatures and rain/snow showers. A frontogenetical band of precipitation extends from around Flagstaff into the Gallup area and this band will continue to intensify over the next few hours. This band will slowly move off to the east overnight and will bring moderate to heavy snowfall rates to portions of far western NM. The NBM has low snow accumulations there (around 1-3") however the HREF 50th percentile suggests the Gallup area could get 3-5", with the 90th percentile showing 6-8". Confidence was not quite high enough to add this area to the Winter Weather Advisory given that marginal temperatures could limit impacts. This will be a target of opportunity for additional forecast updates. The main swath of precipitation will move into central NM early tomorrow morning at the same time that a backdoor cold front pushes in from the east. Briefly gusty winds may develop in east Albuquerque early tomorrow morning, but confidence is low given very wide forecast spread. A convergence zone should develop somewhere in central NM tomorrow, along the leading edge of the front, inducing frontogenesis and creating areas with heavier rain/snowfall rates. Travel impacts will generally be confined to areas above 7,000ft in northern NM, but a brief shot of snow along the upper Rio Grande Valley and in the Santa Fe area cannot be ruled out. As this storm exits late Saturday, drier air will funnel in from the northwest. This could lead to the development of valley fog, especially in areas that receive over 0.1" of rain or a fresh layer of snow. Temperatures may drop below freezing briefly in the Albuquerque metro Sunday morning and since much of the area is well past the climatological last freeze date, a Freeze Watch was issued. Currently, there is around a 30% chance of a freeze at the Albuquerque Sunport, with higher chances on the west mesa and near the Rio Grande. Temperatures rebound nicely Sunday afternoon and snow melt will be quick due to high sun angle. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Weak zonal flow will be the prevailing upper level pattern for the majority of next week. Winds on monday will be light for most areas and conditions look to remain dry. Northeast areas could get a little bit breezier as a 1000-1005 mb sfc low develops in southeast Colorado, co-located with some slightly stronger winds aloft. A stream of high clouds will make its way across the center of the state during the day. Tuesday through Thursday will be pretty similar for most areas, with light winds, dry conditions, and partly cloudy skies. The exception will be for the eastern plains along the Texas-New Mexico border, where southerly flow will bring in some deeper Gulf moisture. This looks like a typical springtime set up for convection to develop along a retreating dryline in west Texas during the afternoon. Long range models are hinting at plenty of instability to work with for areas along far eastern New Mexico where there is greater confidence for thunderstorms. CSU ensemble severe probabilities are hinting at a 5 to 15 percent probability of severe hazard occurrence just along the Texas border for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall highest precip chances will also be along the eastern plains, with lower chances (<20%) for central areas. A shallow embedded shortwave will cross through the region on Thursday and a backdoor front looks to push through the region overnight. Throughout the week, temperatures will be just above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Conditions will continue to deteriorate from the west today and overnight as an upper-low continues to dig into the Four Corners region. Gusty southwest winds will favor eastern areas today, although northeast winds continue across the northeast corner of the state where a backdoor front is currently located. Showers will increase in coverage across the west today and the addition of afternoon sfc heating could spark some convective showers and even a few lightning strikes. Gusty virga showers will be a threat at central sites this evening, but no mention was made in TAFs given the low likelihood. The backdoor front across the northeast will surge westward overnight, spilling through the gaps of the central mountain chain. The range of winds at KABQ varies significantly from model to model so confidence in wind speeds reaching AWW criteria is low at this time. Widespread rain/snow showers and MVFR cigs will be present along and west of the central mtn chain tonight and tomorrow while cigs will be lower (widespread IFR) in the east with little to no precipitation through 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Gusty southwest winds and low humidity will continue to create critical fire weather conditions through the early evening in south- central and southeastern New Mexico. A backdoor front has stalled across northeast/east-central NM, keeping higher humidities and lighter winds in those areas. The southern and western fringes of the east central plains and northeast plains zones may still experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions as southwest winds try to push back the backdoor front. Rain and snow showers spread across the area from west to east this evening, bringing wetting precipitation to many areas. Drier and warmer weather returns Sunday and Monday, with dryline storms increasing in likelihood Tuesday through Thursday next week. A few gusty storms may develop as far west as the central mountain chain. Critical fire weather conditions are not likely next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 50 29 62 / 70 80 5 0 Dulce........................... 26 44 20 57 / 70 90 30 0 Cuba............................ 30 42 23 55 / 60 90 40 0 Gallup.......................... 24 44 18 60 / 80 60 5 0 El Morro........................ 27 41 21 57 / 60 70 20 0 Grants.......................... 27 47 19 62 / 50 60 20 0 Quemado......................... 29 44 22 59 / 60 70 5 0 Magdalena....................... 36 48 29 63 / 20 70 40 0 Datil........................... 31 44 25 60 / 30 70 30 0 Reserve......................... 30 51 20 68 / 30 70 0 0 Glenwood........................ 35 56 27 73 / 30 70 0 0 Chama........................... 25 40 18 50 / 80 90 40 5 Los Alamos...................... 34 42 29 55 / 50 90 60 0 Pecos........................... 31 41 26 55 / 30 80 80 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 42 23 52 / 60 80 50 5 Red River....................... 22 32 18 43 / 80 80 60 10 Angel Fire...................... 22 36 18 50 / 70 80 60 10 Taos............................ 29 46 21 56 / 50 80 50 5 Mora............................ 27 36 20 55 / 50 90 80 10 Espanola........................ 35 51 28 62 / 40 80 50 0 Santa Fe........................ 35 45 30 55 / 40 80 60 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 47 28 59 / 30 80 60 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 49 34 63 / 40 80 60 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 39 51 33 66 / 30 70 50 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 53 32 69 / 30 70 50 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 51 33 66 / 40 70 50 0 Belen........................... 37 54 30 69 / 30 70 50 0 Bernalillo...................... 39 52 32 66 / 40 80 50 0 Bosque Farms.................... 37 53 30 69 / 30 70 50 0 Corrales........................ 39 52 33 67 / 40 80 50 0 Los Lunas....................... 39 53 30 68 / 30 70 50 0 Placitas........................ 38 47 32 61 / 40 80 60 0 Rio Rancho...................... 39 51 33 66 / 40 80 50 0 Socorro......................... 41 58 34 73 / 10 70 40 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 43 28 57 / 40 80 60 0 Tijeras......................... 35 45 30 60 / 40 80 60 0 Edgewood........................ 32 44 26 59 / 20 80 60 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 46 22 60 / 20 80 60 0 Clines Corners.................. 30 40 25 56 / 10 80 70 5 Mountainair..................... 32 47 26 60 / 10 70 60 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 48 27 60 / 10 70 60 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 57 32 65 / 0 70 50 0 Ruidoso......................... 37 51 30 60 / 0 60 40 0 Capulin......................... 25 35 24 55 / 60 50 50 10 Raton........................... 28 40 24 60 / 60 60 50 5 Springer........................ 31 42 25 61 / 40 60 60 5 Las Vegas....................... 31 39 23 58 / 20 80 80 5 Clayton......................... 33 42 31 63 / 30 30 60 30 Roy............................. 33 43 28 62 / 10 60 80 10 Conchas......................... 39 52 34 68 / 5 70 80 20 Santa Rosa...................... 38 51 32 64 / 0 80 70 10 Tucumcari....................... 39 52 35 66 / 5 50 80 20 Clovis.......................... 40 60 36 67 / 0 40 90 20 Portales........................ 41 64 35 68 / 0 40 80 20 Fort Sumner..................... 40 61 34 69 / 0 60 70 10 Roswell......................... 48 70 40 75 / 0 20 30 5 Picacho......................... 41 62 34 71 / 0 40 30 0 Elk............................. 39 61 32 71 / 0 30 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-123>126. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NMZ219. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Saturday night for NMZ210-211-213>215-227. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ202. Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ225-226-238>240. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...16 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.