088
FXUS65 KABQ 190807
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Today will be another warm and quiet day across the area. The
weather turns more active tomorrow as Gulf moisture is pulled into
eastern New Mexico. Strong to severe storms with large hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible east of the central mountain chain.
In addition, training storms may produce flash flooding, with the
highest risk over the HPCC burn scar. Storms are likely again in the
east on Saturday as a Pacific cold front sweeps across the state
from west to east. Drier weather returns Sunday and Monday, but rain
chances may return to eastern and northern areas by the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Increasing pressure heights and warmer temperatures are forecast
today as an upper high over deep south TX swells northward ahead of
an upper low, currently moving south along the central CA coast per
the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Highs today will generally
be above normal central/east and near normal west. Moisture
advection will ramp-up tonight into Friday ahead of the upper low,
which is forecast to turn inland and move east across SoCal late
day. Convection is forecast to initiate early Friday, generally
along/east of the central mountain chain, as southwest winds aloft
trend up in advance of the approaching low. The latest NAM is
showing impressive 0-6km bulk shear of 45-60kts Friday afternoon
across central/eastern NM, with LIs of -3 to -5C and sbCAPE up to
1300J/kg. While the instability isn`t overly impressive, the shear
certainly is and will likely warrant an upgrade to SPC`s convective
outlook from a current general thunderstorm category to at least a
marginal risk for severe storms. The latest CAMs show potential for
both the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn scars to take a hit
Friday, with at least some potential for flash flooding. The HPCC
scar may have the greater threat as storms initially move north-
northeast with the potential for training of storms. Forecast
confidence is too low to issue a watch at this time, but will be
reassessed by later shifts. Breezy to locally windy conditions will
prevail Friday as stronger winds aloft overtake the region, with the
strongest winds likely across far western NM. Some relative cooling
is forecast across eastern NM Friday due to the added moisture
resulting in clouds and potential rain-cooling of the lower boundary
layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Strong to severe storms may persist past sunset Friday evening since
storms will continue to tap into elevated instability. Training
storms over saturated soils from rounds of storms earlier in the day
could result in localized flash flooding as well. The aformentioned
Pacific trough will continue barreling toward New Mexico on
Saturday. Models have disagreed on its track the past few days, but
it appears that they have settled on the more northerly track. This
means less precipitation for northwest and north-central areas,
but a quick burst of precipitation is still possible as the Low
moves overhead, before the dry air is advected in. Instability out
east likely won`t be as high on Saturday afternoon, but strong to
severe storms are still possible in the far northeast corner of
the state. A cooler and drier airmass will be advected in from the
west Saturday evening as a cold front moves through. Briefly
gusty winds are possible as this early season cold front pushes
through as well. Cooler and drier air settling in will set the
stage for a relatively chilly night. Temps will approach the
freezing mark for the first time this season in several northern
mountain communities like Chama and Mora and temps could drop into
the low 40s in Santa Fe.

A backdoor front will push into the eastern plains Sunday as the
trough exits into the High Plains. Briefly gusty east canyon winds
are possible as a result on Sunday night, but an impactful event
appears unlikely. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest that
troughing will persist in the vicinity of New Mexico early to mid-
week, opening up the opportunity for a storm system to drop down
east slopes of the Rockies into the Land of Enchantment. The
exact details remain uncertain but there is at least the potential
for more showers and storms which will favor northern and eastern
areas. The current forecast shows a slight chance of
precipitation during the Tuesday through Thursday time period, but
these will likely shift in the coming days as guidance gets into
better agreement. If there is a storm, it will likely come from
the north or east, opening up the potential for an east canyon
wind event around the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds. Very low probabilities of low
stratus/fog developing across southeast NM early Thursday morning,
with potential impacts to KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the
next seven days. A drying/warming trend continues today before
moisture advection tonight into Friday ahead of an upper level low
forecast to move east from over SoCal and across NM on Saturday.
Humidity will trend up tonight through Friday night across much of
central/eastern NM as will chances for wetting storms, which will
focus along/east of the central mountain chain. Dry and breezy/windy
conditions will prevail across far western NM Friday ahead of the
upper low, with those conditions spreading into central and southern
portions of the area Saturday as the upper low moves across the Four
Corners and into southern CO. Drier and cooler conditions will
follow on Sunday, with forecast confidence decreasing rapidly
thereafter as the latest medium range model solutions diverge with
the handling of an upper level trough coming out of the Pacific
NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  78  40  79  41 /   0   0  10  10
Cuba............................  77  48  80  48 /   0   0  10  10
Gallup..........................  81  42  83  42 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  79  48  81  43 /   0   0   5  10
Grants..........................  82  44  84  43 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  80  48  80  43 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  83  57  83  54 /   0   5  10   5
Datil...........................  81  49  81  44 /   0   0  10   0
Reserve.........................  82  46  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  85  56  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  70  41  73  42 /   0   0  10  20
Los Alamos......................  78  56  78  54 /   0   0  30  20
Pecos...........................  79  51  76  53 /   0   5  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  74  46  76  48 /   0   0  20  20
Red River.......................  66  42  67  43 /   0   0  30  20
Angel Fire......................  71  35  72  39 /   0   0  30  20
Taos............................  78  43  79  46 /   0   0  20  20
Mora............................  78  46  74  47 /   0   0  50  20
Espanola........................  84  51  85  52 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe........................  81  55  80  56 /   0   5  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  84  53  83  54 /   0   5  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  62  83  62 /   0   5  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  60  85  59 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  56  88  59 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  58  86  59 /   0   5  20  10
Belen...........................  91  56  90  57 /   0   5  10  10
Bernalillo......................  88  56  88  57 /   0   5  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  90  54  89  57 /   0   5  20  10
Corrales........................  88  56  87  59 /   0   5  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  90  54  89  58 /   0   5  10  10
Placitas........................  85  59  84  57 /   0   5  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  88  58  87  58 /   0   5  20  10
Socorro.........................  91  62  91  60 /   0   5  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  55  79  53 /   0   5  30  20
Tijeras.........................  82  57  80  55 /   0   5  30  20
Edgewood........................  83  53  80  52 /   0   5  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  48  81  51 /   0   5  40  20
Clines Corners..................  81  54  78  52 /   0   5  50  20
Mountainair.....................  83  55  81  54 /   0   5  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  84  55  81  55 /   0   5  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  88  63  85  60 /   0  10  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  81  57  76  56 /   0   5  50  20
Capulin.........................  79  52  79  52 /   0   0  30  20
Raton...........................  82  47  82  50 /   0   0  30  10
Springer........................  85  46  82  51 /   0   0  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  50  77  50 /   0   0  50  30
Clayton.........................  85  60  84  60 /   0   0  30  20
Roy.............................  84  56  77  56 /   0   5  50  40
Conchas.........................  91  61  84  59 /   0   5  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  90  60  80  59 /   0   5  50  40
Tucumcari.......................  93  62  86  61 /   0   5  40  30
Clovis..........................  94  66  90  64 /   0   5  20  20
Portales........................  95  66  92  65 /   0   5  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  92  64  86  63 /   0  10  40  30
Roswell.........................  97  70  94  70 /   0   5  20  20
Picacho.........................  90  62  87  61 /   5   5  30  20
Elk.............................  89  59  86  58 /   5   5  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11