008
FXUS65 KABQ 192014
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
114 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Low elevation rain and mountain snow will expand across northern
  and central New Mexico this evening and overnight.

- Accumulating snow will be favored above 8500 feet tonight
  through Thursday night.

- Another storm system will bring a round of lower elevation rain
  and mountain snow late this weekend and into early Monday.
  Accumulating snow will again be favored above 8500 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 110 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

The upper level low is shifting eastward over southern CA early
this afternoon. A sharp vort lobe rounding the southern periphery
of the low will continue to pivot east tonight and then northeast
across NM on Thursday. After this mornings shower activity across
eastern NM, showers are starting to develop and expand across
western and central NM this afternoon. Enough instability will
exist this afternoon for a few thunderstorms in this area, but
the atmosphere will stabilize this evening as showers become more
widespread and expand north and northeast. The highest
precipitation totals will be favored across the Southwest
Mountains eastward toward the South Central Mountains. Lowest
precipitation amounts will be across northwest NM. Snow levels are
still expected to start around 9kft before falling to near 7500ft
early Friday morning. Several inches of snowfall is expected above
8500 feet, and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the
Northern Mountains tonight through sunrise Friday. Other spotty
locations, like Mount Taylor, Whitewater Baldy, and Sierra Blanca
Peak will also pick up several inches of snowfall, but these
isolated areas are not reflective of their respective zones as a
whole, so no additional advisories will be issued. There is also a
low concern for flooding across the Southwest Mountains and
Ruidoso. The recent very dry stretch and hence dry soils, plus the
fact this will be a long duration light rainfall (heavy rainfall
rates are not expected) will mitigate greater concerns. By
Thursday evening, precipitation will be focused across north
central and northeast NM before diminishing by sunrise Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

A mid level dry slot will push over NM on Friday. Dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures will prevail over NM but the next upper
low will be moving over southern CA/northern Baja. This system
will very slowly shift eastward on Saturday, so slow such that
precipitation should not begin over NM until Saturday night. The
low will continue to trek eastward Saturday night before crossing
NM on Sunday. Though there still are some track and timing
differences as it crosses NM, models are in general agreement that
the low will not be as deep as tonight`s system, by 1-3dam at H5.
H7 temperatures will be similar to, or perhaps a tad warmer, than
the current system, so snowfall will again be favored above 8500
feet, though some snow will be possible as low as 7500 feet.
Models also agree that another round of widespread light
precipitation will be on tap.

The upper low looks to exit NM early Monday with quiet conditions
prevailing Monday and Tuesday. A backdoor cold front may slide
through the eastern plains Wednesday, dropping temperatures on the
order of 10 degrees from Tuesday`s readings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop through
the afternoon across western and central NM while the showers
across eastern NM will diminish. A few additional thunderstorms
may develop late this afternoon across far eastern NM but
confidence is low. Higher confidence exists that showers will
become more widespread and steady this evening and overnight as
they spread northeastward. Showers will slowly break up Thursday
morning as they become more focused across the northeast half of
the state. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be likely overnight with the
rainfall. Light winds will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

Two storm systems will bring widespread precipitation to New
Mexico over the next several days. The first will bring lower
elevation rain and mountain snow to the area tonight through
Thursday night. Most areas will see between one quarter and one
inch of precipitation, though northwest NM will see lighter
amounts. Accumulating snow is expected above 8500 feet. The second
system will bring another round of widespread precipitation late
Saturday through early Monday. Similarly, this second system will
bring snow to areas above 8500 feet. Temperatures will be near or
just below normal for much of the week. Main concern is
poor ventilation rates Thursday through early next week for most
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  52  33  51 /  30  40  10   0
Dulce...........................  29  50  29  49 /  50  70  40  10
Cuba............................  34  46  28  48 /  70  70  20   5
Gallup..........................  31  46  25  50 /  30  50  10   5
El Morro........................  34  44  28  49 /  60  80  20   5
Grants..........................  34  46  25  52 /  70  70  10   5
Quemado.........................  34  47  28  51 /  60  70   5   0
Magdalena.......................  38  47  31  50 /  90  80   0   0
Datil...........................  34  44  27  48 /  80  70  10   0
Reserve.........................  32  49  24  53 /  90  70   0   0
Glenwood........................  34  52  27  56 /  90  80   0   0
Chama...........................  30  46  27  45 /  60  70  50  10
Los Alamos......................  38  45  33  48 /  80  80  40   5
Pecos...........................  33  47  28  51 /  80  80  30   0
Cerro/Questa....................  32  46  29  47 /  40  70  40  10
Red River.......................  27  39  24  40 /  40  70  50  10
Angel Fire......................  25  44  19  46 /  50  70  40   5
Taos............................  31  47  29  50 /  50  70  40   5
Mora............................  31  47  26  52 /  60  70  30   5
Espanola........................  35  52  31  55 /  70  80  30   5
Santa Fe........................  37  46  32  50 /  80  80  30   0
Santa Fe Airport................  36  48  31  52 /  80  80  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  44  49  36  53 /  90  80  20   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  43  50  35  55 /  80  80  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  51  33  57 /  80  80  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  42  50  34  55 /  80  70  10   0
Belen...........................  40  53  29  55 /  80  80  10   0
Bernalillo......................  41  52  34  56 /  80  80  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  38  52  28  56 /  80  80   5   0
Corrales........................  40  52  32  56 /  80  70  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  39  53  28  56 /  80  80   5   0
Placitas........................  42  48  35  52 /  80  80  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  43  52  35  55 /  80  70  10   0
Socorro.........................  42  53  33  55 /  90  80   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  38  46  32  49 /  90  80  20   0
Tijeras.........................  40  47  34  50 /  90  80  20   0
Edgewood........................  38  48  31  52 /  90  80  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  50  26  54 /  80  80  10   0
Clines Corners..................  34  47  29  50 /  80  80  10   0
Mountainair.....................  38  48  30  51 /  90  90  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  36  48  29  51 /  90  90   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  41  52  32  54 /  90  80   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  46  31  52 /  80  80   0   0
Capulin.........................  33  50  30  51 /  20  70  40  10
Raton...........................  33  53  29  54 /  20  70  50  10
Springer........................  33  52  27  57 /  30  60  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  35  49  28  55 /  70  80  20   0
Clayton.........................  42  55  37  55 /  20  80  50   5
Roy.............................  38  52  31  56 /  30  70  20   0
Conchas.........................  41  58  33  61 /  40  70  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  55  36  60 /  60  80   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  58  35  63 /  40  80  20   0
Clovis..........................  46  59  37  63 /  30  90  20   0
Portales........................  44  60  36  64 /  30  90  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  42  58  35  63 /  70  80  10   0
Roswell.........................  47  61  36  65 /  40  70   0   0
Picacho.........................  43  58  34  62 /  60  70   0   0
Elk.............................  38  54  27  60 /  60  70   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Friday for NMZ210-211-213-214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34