Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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946
FXUS65 KABQ 160627 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1227 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Isolated showers and storms are forecast across the eastern
  plains this afternoon and evening, but are not expected to
  become severe at this time.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for the Upper Rio Grande Valley,
  Estancia Valley, Far Northeast Highlands and Northwest Plateau
  for late Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Dry conditions will prevail from Friday through the weekend with
  a slow warming trend.

- Windy conditions are forecast Monday, especially across
  northeast NM where there is a low chance (20-30%) to reach
  advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An ongoing round of nocturnal convection across north central NM
is due to forcing supplied by an upper low, currently moving east
from UT toward CO/WY, and a feed of subtropical moisture being
transported north across the state on strong southerly low level
flow. All of the CAMs show this activity diminishing between
09-12Z, which fits with the upper low starting to pull northeast
and further away from NM. A much drier airmass will be steered
east over the area today under the upper low circulation, with a
notable downtrend in PWATs to below normal through Friday. We
can`t rule out isolated showers and storms across the eastern
plains later today due to sufficient moisture remaining in the
lower boundary layer out east and instability generated from
daytime heating. A weak and baggy upper level trough will hang
back over UT/AZ going into Friday, with a notably drier and cooler
airmass over the region. It will definitely begin to feel more
like fall across western and central NM through Friday, where
daytime temperatures are forecast to be below average. The first
freeze of the season is still forecast late Thursday night into
Friday morning for a few northern and central lower elevation
locales and a Freeze Watch is in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A dry airmass will remain over the region through at least Monday,
with a warming trend and growing diurnal temperature ranges that are
fairly common of the season. An upper level ridge will be the story
on Saturday, but the latest models depart thereafter with the
handling of a weak upper low for Sunday. Regardless, the preceding
dry airmass won`t be supportive of precipitation and the upper low
would likely produce nothing more than added cloud cover on
Sunday. A northern stream trough will race east across the
Intermountain West on Monday, spreading stronger westerly winds
aloft over NM and deepening a lee side trough. This will bring
breezy to windy conditions, with the strongest winds forecast from
the Sangre De Cristos and Central Highlands east to the TX/OK
borders. Low probabilities (20-30%) exist to reach Wind Advisory
threshold over northeast NM on Monday. The upper level trough will
push a cold front through the area late Monday, with cold air
advection more notable across eastern NM behind the backdoor
segment. Dry conditions will persist into early next week, but an
approaching Pacific low may bring precipitation back to the
forecast toward the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail across western NM, with a mixed bag of VFR
and MVFR conditions across eastern areas currently impacting KLVS
and flirting with KTCC. Moderate probabilities for further
deterioration at KLVS to IFR going into the early morning hours.
Otherwise, low probabilities for MVFR cigs exist through Thursday
morning at KTCC and KROW. An ongoing round of showers and storms may
impact KLVS and possibly KSAF through 08-09Z, but then the threat
for storms goes to near zero percent at all TAF sites. The one
exception is at KTCC, where isolated late day storms are possible
but probabilities are too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise,
winds will be much lighter today relative to Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
seven days. Winds and humidity may reach critical threshold on
Monday across northeast NM, but fuels will be unreceptive to large
fire growth. In the meantime, an upper low moving east from UT
toward CO/WY will steer a much drier airmass over the area and
humidity will trend down areawide. A warming/drying trend is
forecast from Friday through the weekend with deteriorating vent
rates due to a stable atmosphere provided by a weak upper level
ridge. A cold front will push through Monday and keep dry
conditions in place through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  33  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  60  24  61  24 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  60  31  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  61  21  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  61  27  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  65  26  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  64  29  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  69  38  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  66  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  70  34  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  73  40  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  56  25  56  24 /  20   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  62  39  60  37 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  62  37  61  35 /  20   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  60  30  60  29 /  20   0   0   0
Red River.......................  56  26  55  24 /  30   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  60  15  58  14 /  30   0   0   0
Taos............................  64  29  63  27 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  32  63  32 /  30   0   0   0
Espanola........................  69  34  67  34 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  64  36  63  36 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  67  34  65  34 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  42  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  36  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  42  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  73  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  70  39  69  38 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  72  39  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  71  40  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  72  41  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  67  39  66  40 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  70  41  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  76  45  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  37  61  36 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  65  39  63  38 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  66  35  63  34 /  10   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  33  66  32 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  66  38  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  67  37  64  37 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  68  38  65  38 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  74  47  70  46 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  68  41  64  39 /  20   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  33  64  32 /  40   5   0   5
Raton...........................  71  33  68  31 /  40   0   0   5
Springer........................  73  34  70  32 /  30   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  66  37  65  35 /  30   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  46  72  43 /  20  30   0   5
Roy.............................  72  40  70  38 /  30  10   0   5
Conchas.........................  80  44  76  42 /  30  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  77  43  72  45 /  20  10   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  81  47  78  45 /  20  30   5   5
Clovis..........................  81  52  80  48 /  20  30   5   0
Portales........................  83  52  81  49 /  20  30   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  80  48  78  48 /  20  20   0   0
Roswell.........................  84  52  82  49 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  81  48  77  46 /  20   0   0   0
Elk.............................  77  46  73  45 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NMZ201-
216-222-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11