Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
961 FXUS65 KABQ 150610 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1210 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Flooding of creeks, streams, and arroyos will be a concern through tonight across the area in locations with repeated rounds of rainfall. The Animas River and San Juan River near Farmington may cause minor flooding impacts. - Patchy fog will limit visibility to one quarter of a mile at times into this morning, particularly in the highlands to the east of the central mountain chain, including areas near Las Vegas and Clines Corners. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of north central NM on today and tonight. - There is a moderate risk (40-60%) of a first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and near Reserve Friday and Saturday mornings. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low moving east from central CA into NV, which is creating a persistent southerly flow of subtropical moisture in the lower boundary layer across NM and allowing PWATs to continue well above the 90th percentile. Surface dewpoint temperatures continue to be anomalously high for the middle of October, with mid 50s to 60 currently observed in the middle and lower RGV. With surface dewpoints that high and forcing associated with the approaching upper low, a round of nocturnal convection is underway across south central NM and is modeled to progress north through the area into the early morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect for the Central and Northeast Highlands through 16Z, but this may need to be expanded in area later. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop today as southerly low level flow increases in response to the eastward bound upper low. Another round of showers and storms is forecast to develop later this afternoon and evening, this time focusing over the northern mountains and nearby highlands. This area is included in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on the SPC day 1 outlook. The 00Z NAM may be over-forecasting the instability again based on what transpired Tuesday, but the 0-6km bulk shear of 55-65kts is for real and supportive of severe storms. Storms will have a better chance of continuing overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning due to increasing forcing associated with the upper low moving from UT into CO/WY. This setup brings a moderate chance (40- 60%) of severe storms to areas between Taos, Las Vegas and Raton after midnight which would be a rather rare event in general, but especially in mid October. Dry air will rotate east under the upper low circulation and over NM on Thursday, finally bringing an end to convection across central and western NM. However, will hold onto a slight chance mention of showers and storms across eastern NM on Thursday where sufficient low level moisture will reside to fuel a few showers or storms. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A weak trailing trough will move over the region Thursday night, but will have insufficient moisture to produce precipitation. PWATs will continue the downtrend through Friday night, down to below normal areawide. The much drier atmosphere will allow for increasing diurnal temperature ranges and will make if feel much more like fall. This will be notable both Friday and Saturday mornings when low temperatures will fall below freezing at a number of western and north central NM locales. A few locales will experience the first freeze of the season and a Freeze Warning may be required. The medium range model solutions are telling a fairly consistent story for the weekend of weak ridging and increasing pressure heights bringing a warming trend that will send high temperatures back above normal most areas by Sunday. The latest model solutions differ with the handling of an approaching upper level trough early next week but agree on a windier pattern developing, especially on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A mixed bag of VFR to LIFR conditions prevail across northern and central NM, with continued deterioration forecast through the morning hours. KLVS will be the most impacted terminal and be slow to improve Wednesday. Low probabilities for MVFR or lower at KABQ/KAEG and KSAF through Wednesday morning. Southerly winds will pick up areawide Wednesday, with gusts up to between 25-30kts being common. A round of late day shower and storms will focus over north central areas Wednesday, with potential for impacts at KLVS and KSAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days, mainly due to wet antecedent conditions and the unreceptivity of fuels. However, winds and humidity will approach critical threshold on Monday as winds ramp up in advance of an approaching upper level trough. Otherwise, high humidity and chances for wetting rain will persist through Wednesday night before the atmosphere begins to dry out on Thursday. Dry conditions will persist through the weekend with a warming trend as an upper level ridge moves east over the region. Vent rates will take a dip and be poor to fair most areas this weekend, with a stable atmosphere as the ridge moves overhead. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 73 41 60 33 / 30 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 68 37 61 25 / 60 70 10 0 Cuba............................ 68 39 61 31 / 60 60 5 0 Gallup.......................... 69 31 61 26 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 36 61 30 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 74 38 65 29 / 30 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 71 36 64 31 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 71 46 69 38 / 10 20 0 0 Datil........................... 71 39 65 32 / 10 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 73 38 69 33 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 77 43 72 38 / 10 0 0 0 Chama........................... 62 36 57 25 / 60 80 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 65 48 62 38 / 80 80 20 0 Pecos........................... 64 46 63 35 / 60 80 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 44 61 29 / 50 70 20 0 Red River....................... 61 39 57 24 / 50 70 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 64 38 60 12 / 50 70 20 5 Taos............................ 69 45 64 28 / 50 80 20 0 Mora............................ 62 44 64 31 / 60 70 20 5 Espanola........................ 73 47 69 33 / 70 80 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 69 49 65 36 / 70 80 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 73 47 67 33 / 60 80 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 54 68 43 / 40 60 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 77 53 70 42 / 30 50 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 79 48 72 36 / 30 50 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 77 52 70 42 / 40 50 5 0 Belen........................... 79 51 73 41 / 20 30 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 78 51 70 39 / 50 60 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 78 48 72 38 / 20 40 0 0 Corrales........................ 78 50 71 39 / 40 60 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 78 50 72 40 / 20 40 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 51 67 39 / 50 60 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 76 52 70 41 / 40 60 5 0 Socorro......................... 79 53 75 44 / 10 30 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 47 63 36 / 40 60 10 0 Tijeras......................... 72 49 65 38 / 40 60 10 0 Edgewood........................ 72 48 66 34 / 30 60 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 73 46 69 32 / 30 50 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 67 48 66 34 / 30 60 10 5 Mountainair..................... 72 48 67 37 / 20 40 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 72 49 68 38 / 20 40 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 77 55 73 46 / 20 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 50 67 39 / 20 20 10 5 Capulin......................... 66 50 67 35 / 10 40 10 20 Raton........................... 67 51 71 33 / 30 40 20 10 Springer........................ 69 52 73 34 / 30 50 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 63 49 66 36 / 50 70 20 5 Clayton......................... 74 54 75 45 / 5 10 20 20 Roy............................. 68 53 71 39 / 20 50 20 10 Conchas......................... 76 57 79 43 / 20 40 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 71 55 76 44 / 30 30 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 79 56 80 46 / 5 10 20 20 Clovis.......................... 79 55 81 51 / 0 0 20 20 Portales........................ 80 56 82 51 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 76 57 79 47 / 10 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 80 59 83 51 / 5 5 20 10 Picacho......................... 75 53 80 47 / 10 10 20 10 Elk............................. 75 52 75 46 / 10 20 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NMZ223-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11