Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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287 FXUS65 KABQ 101136 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Dry and unusually warm conditions will persist through at least Saturday as high pressure remains anchored over the state. A number of locales will approach daily record highs through Saturday. Temperatures will trend down some from Sunday through Wednesday, although still be above normal most areas, as high pressure moves east out of the state. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024 An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will persist over the forecast area through the end of the week causing daily rounds of record and near-record warmth to continue. A weak upper level low pressure system over the upper Baja Peninsula, and a weak upper level trough clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft, will probably keep enough mid-level moisture in place for isolated and gusty virga showers, and perhaps a few dry thunderstorms, over the southern tier of mountains, and also over the far northeast corner of NM. Little more than sprinkles are expected at the surface, but localized, brief and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in the southwest mountains with stronger cells. Drier air will filter over the area from the west on Friday, preventing significant coverage of virga showers from returning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024 The upper high will be positioned over the Bootheel of NM Friday night near 590dam at 500mb and is then forecast to move southeast toward west TX through the weekend, giving way to increasing westerlies. Unusually warm conditions will continue on Saturday under this regime, with a number of locales reaching up to near daily record highs once again. Temperatures will begin to trend down Sunday and continue a slow downward trend closer to normal through the middle of next week as a Pacific low approaches from over the Great Basin and eventually opens up and moves east across the southern Rockies. The Pacific low won`t have much moisture to work with, so don`t expect much other than an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some sprinkles early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Isolated and gusty dry thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening over the southwest mountains. Meanwhile, isolated and gusty virga showers are forecast over the south central mountains and far northeast plains. A few of the stronger cells could produce localized, brief, and erratic dry-microburst wind gusts up to 45 mph, especially over the southwest mountains. Also, this afternoon and early evening, record and near-record high temperatures will create unusually high density altitude for this time of year. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024 A strong ridge of high pressure will keep very dry conditions, as well as record and near-record high temperatures, in the forecast today through Saturday. Enough mid-level moisture is forecast to remain in place for isolated and gusty virga showers over far northeast areas this afternoon, as well as a few dry and gusty thunderstorms over the West Central Basin and Range. A pattern shift is expected early next week as the upper ridge finally breaks down and the storm track becomes more active. A slow-moving upper level low pressure system may weaken into an upper-level trough as it swings through the Four Corners region with light rain showers mainly over western and northern NM Sunday through Tuesday night or Wednesday. South winds will become modestly gusty Sunday through Tuesday, before shifting out of the southwest and increasing in strength on Wednesday. Temperatures will also trend cooler, bottoming out most places on Wednesday with readings around 1991- 2020 averages over eastern areas and a few to around 7 degrees above the averages further west. The cooler temperatures will also enable humidities to gradually climb above 15 percent most places by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 83 46 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 80 34 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 79 45 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 35 82 37 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 78 44 78 45 / 5 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 81 39 82 37 / 5 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 78 45 79 44 / 10 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 51 80 51 / 10 10 0 0 Datil........................... 77 46 78 45 / 10 10 0 0 Reserve......................... 85 44 86 41 / 10 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 88 56 89 53 / 10 10 0 0 Chama........................... 74 40 74 39 / 5 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 76 53 77 52 / 5 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 78 50 78 47 / 5 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 45 75 43 / 5 5 0 0 Red River....................... 64 39 65 40 / 5 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 70 20 71 25 / 5 5 0 0 Taos............................ 77 38 78 38 / 5 5 0 0 Mora............................ 76 42 77 41 / 5 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 84 42 86 45 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 78 52 79 51 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 81 47 83 46 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 57 85 57 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 48 86 54 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 41 88 50 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 49 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 41 87 47 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 88 43 88 50 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 41 87 46 / 0 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 88 45 88 49 / 0 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 41 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 83 53 84 53 / 0 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 87 49 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 53 90 55 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 51 78 51 / 5 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 52 80 52 / 5 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 81 45 83 48 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 83 39 84 39 / 5 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 79 47 79 46 / 5 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 81 48 82 49 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 81 47 81 48 / 5 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 85 54 85 56 / 5 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 78 52 78 52 / 10 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 76 47 78 45 / 10 10 0 0 Raton........................... 81 43 82 41 / 5 5 0 0 Springer........................ 81 41 83 41 / 5 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 79 44 80 45 / 5 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 83 53 86 51 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 80 47 82 47 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 87 48 89 49 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 86 47 86 50 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 86 48 88 48 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 91 55 92 54 / 0 5 0 0 Portales........................ 91 55 93 53 / 0 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 89 49 91 50 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 94 56 95 56 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 88 55 88 56 / 5 10 0 0 Elk............................. 86 53 86 52 / 10 10 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44