Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
946 FXUS65 KABQ 160627 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1227 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Isolated showers and storms are forecast across the eastern plains this afternoon and evening, but are not expected to become severe at this time. - A Freeze Watch is in effect for the Upper Rio Grande Valley, Estancia Valley, Far Northeast Highlands and Northwest Plateau for late Thursday night into Friday morning. - Dry conditions will prevail from Friday through the weekend with a slow warming trend. - Windy conditions are forecast Monday, especially across northeast NM where there is a low chance (20-30%) to reach advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An ongoing round of nocturnal convection across north central NM is due to forcing supplied by an upper low, currently moving east from UT toward CO/WY, and a feed of subtropical moisture being transported north across the state on strong southerly low level flow. All of the CAMs show this activity diminishing between 09-12Z, which fits with the upper low starting to pull northeast and further away from NM. A much drier airmass will be steered east over the area today under the upper low circulation, with a notable downtrend in PWATs to below normal through Friday. We can`t rule out isolated showers and storms across the eastern plains later today due to sufficient moisture remaining in the lower boundary layer out east and instability generated from daytime heating. A weak and baggy upper level trough will hang back over UT/AZ going into Friday, with a notably drier and cooler airmass over the region. It will definitely begin to feel more like fall across western and central NM through Friday, where daytime temperatures are forecast to be below average. The first freeze of the season is still forecast late Thursday night into Friday morning for a few northern and central lower elevation locales and a Freeze Watch is in effect. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A dry airmass will remain over the region through at least Monday, with a warming trend and growing diurnal temperature ranges that are fairly common of the season. An upper level ridge will be the story on Saturday, but the latest models depart thereafter with the handling of a weak upper low for Sunday. Regardless, the preceding dry airmass won`t be supportive of precipitation and the upper low would likely produce nothing more than added cloud cover on Sunday. A northern stream trough will race east across the Intermountain West on Monday, spreading stronger westerly winds aloft over NM and deepening a lee side trough. This will bring breezy to windy conditions, with the strongest winds forecast from the Sangre De Cristos and Central Highlands east to the TX/OK borders. Low probabilities (20-30%) exist to reach Wind Advisory threshold over northeast NM on Monday. The upper level trough will push a cold front through the area late Monday, with cold air advection more notable across eastern NM behind the backdoor segment. Dry conditions will persist into early next week, but an approaching Pacific low may bring precipitation back to the forecast toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail across western NM, with a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR conditions across eastern areas currently impacting KLVS and flirting with KTCC. Moderate probabilities for further deterioration at KLVS to IFR going into the early morning hours. Otherwise, low probabilities for MVFR cigs exist through Thursday morning at KTCC and KROW. An ongoing round of showers and storms may impact KLVS and possibly KSAF through 08-09Z, but then the threat for storms goes to near zero percent at all TAF sites. The one exception is at KTCC, where isolated late day storms are possible but probabilities are too low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, winds will be much lighter today relative to Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days. Winds and humidity may reach critical threshold on Monday across northeast NM, but fuels will be unreceptive to large fire growth. In the meantime, an upper low moving east from UT toward CO/WY will steer a much drier airmass over the area and humidity will trend down areawide. A warming/drying trend is forecast from Friday through the weekend with deteriorating vent rates due to a stable atmosphere provided by a weak upper level ridge. A cold front will push through Monday and keep dry conditions in place through at least the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 60 24 61 24 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 60 31 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 61 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 61 27 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 65 26 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 64 29 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 69 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 66 31 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 34 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 73 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 56 25 56 24 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 62 39 60 37 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 62 37 61 35 / 20 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 30 60 29 / 20 0 0 0 Red River....................... 56 26 55 24 / 30 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 60 15 58 14 / 30 0 0 0 Taos............................ 64 29 63 27 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 64 32 63 32 / 30 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 69 34 67 34 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 36 63 36 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 34 65 34 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 73 36 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 42 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 42 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 39 69 38 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 39 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 41 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 39 66 40 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 41 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 76 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 37 61 36 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 65 39 63 38 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 66 35 63 34 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 69 33 66 32 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 66 38 62 37 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 67 37 64 37 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 68 38 65 38 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 74 47 70 46 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 41 64 39 / 20 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 33 64 32 / 40 5 0 5 Raton........................... 71 33 68 31 / 40 0 0 5 Springer........................ 73 34 70 32 / 30 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 66 37 65 35 / 30 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 76 46 72 43 / 20 30 0 5 Roy............................. 72 40 70 38 / 30 10 0 5 Conchas......................... 80 44 76 42 / 30 10 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 77 43 72 45 / 20 10 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 81 47 78 45 / 20 30 5 5 Clovis.......................... 81 52 80 48 / 20 30 5 0 Portales........................ 83 52 81 49 / 20 30 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 80 48 78 48 / 20 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 52 82 49 / 10 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 48 77 46 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 77 46 73 45 / 20 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NMZ201- 216-222-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11