Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
073 FXUS65 KABQ 111148 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 548 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening. - Moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars today and Tuesday, then moderate on Wednesday. - Scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to erratic wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph over portions of west central and central NM this afternoon. - After decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, storm coverage will increase over central and western areas again at the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 There will be a stark contrast between the western and eastern halves of the forecast area today with PWATs around 50-75 percent of normal out west, and 100-125 percent of normal across the east. With all the dry air in place, showers and thunderstorms over the southwest mountains will be isolated to widely scattered at best, there will be even spottier cells across the Rio Grande Valley, and dry weather over west central and northwest parts of the forecast area. Some storms west of the central mountain chain will produce virga with localized, brief, and erratic, dry microburst wind gusts up to 50 mph. Meanwhile, locations along and east of the central mountain chain can expected scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some with locally heavy rainfall and a risk of flash flooding mainly below recent burn scars. The greatest burn scar flood threat will be in the Ruidoso area, where the burn scars are more recent and more susceptible to rapid runoff. Slow, down- basin, storm motion around 5-15 mph will increase the risk of burn scar flooding along the east slopes of the central mountain chain this afternoon. After midnight, mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger over the south central mountains and east. Tonight, a moderately strong east wind will blow through gaps in the central mountain chain increasing low-level moisture over central and western areas for Tuesday. The peak east canyon wind gusts may reach up to 45 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque around midnight. On Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the continental divide to the east slopes of the central mountain chain, with spottier activity along and east of a line from Clayton to Roswell, and from Farmington to Gallup. PWATs will generally vary around 100 percent of normal over central areas on Tuesday enabling the risk of burn scar flash flooding to persist, especially since storm motions may be slow and erratic with a high pressure system approaching from the west. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will vary from a few to several degrees above 30-year averages across the west, while eastern readings vary from a few to several degrees below the averages. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1254 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 The mid-level high pressure system will weaken as it moves overhead mid week with decreasing coverage of showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. The central mountain chain and southwest mountains will probably be the most active areas for convection on Wednesday, then the north central and southwest mountains on Thursday. Storm coverage will increase again at the end of the week, and convection will remain fairly active through the weekend, as more traditional flow of monsoon moisture develops in response to a broad high pressure system over the southeast US and an upper level trough on the west coast. At this time it looks like disturbances embedded in the monsoon moisture plume will make Friday and Saturday the most active days with a risk of locally heavy rainfall each afternoon and evening. In the wake of these disturbances on Sunday, the monsoon plume will weaken and tilt over eastern NM with drier air over the northwest. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening, then scattered to isolated activity will linger across the east after midnight. Some storms along and east of the central mountain chain may turn severe this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail. The Rio Grande Valley and southwest mountains will probably have spottier storms mainly during the afternoon, and some of these will be capable of producing virga with localized, brief, and erratic dry microburst wind gusts up to 45 KT. Tonight, a gusty east wind will develop below canyons opening into the central valleys from the east with the strongest winds at KABQ, where gusts may peak around 40 KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1254 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will again be possible in the central valley this afternoon and early evening, and over the West Central Basin and Range. Dry weather is expected northwest of there, with a risk of locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding farther east. Tonight, a moderately strong east canyon wind will increase moisture over central and western areas for Tuesday, then PWATs around normal for this time of year are forecast to linger across much of the forecast area through mid week. The focus for showers and thunderstorms will shift gradually westward this week with storms favoring central areas Tuesday and to a lesser extent Wednesday. A more traditional flow of monsoon moisture is forecast to set up during the latter half of the week, especially Friday through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and storms over central and western areas. The monsoon moisture plume looks to tilt over eastern areas on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 59 93 61 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 89 46 88 46 / 5 5 30 10 Cuba............................ 87 53 85 53 / 0 5 30 10 Gallup.......................... 92 49 91 53 / 0 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 88 53 86 53 / 0 0 30 20 Grants.......................... 91 52 87 53 / 0 0 30 20 Quemado......................... 87 54 88 56 / 5 0 30 20 Magdalena....................... 89 58 85 59 / 20 20 50 30 Datil........................... 87 53 83 53 / 20 5 60 30 Reserve......................... 94 52 93 51 / 20 10 40 20 Glenwood........................ 97 58 97 56 / 20 10 50 30 Chama........................... 82 45 80 46 / 10 10 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 84 58 81 57 / 20 10 60 30 Pecos........................... 81 52 79 53 / 40 30 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 50 80 51 / 40 20 60 10 Red River....................... 72 42 69 42 / 50 30 70 20 Angel Fire...................... 74 37 72 37 / 60 30 80 20 Taos............................ 84 50 82 48 / 40 20 60 10 Mora............................ 74 47 73 47 / 70 40 80 20 Espanola........................ 91 55 88 56 / 20 20 50 20 Santa Fe........................ 86 57 82 57 / 30 20 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 56 86 55 / 20 20 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 62 89 63 / 20 10 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 65 91 64 / 10 10 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 62 93 61 / 10 10 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 62 91 62 / 10 5 30 40 Belen........................... 97 59 93 58 / 10 10 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 95 61 92 61 / 10 10 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 95 58 93 58 / 10 10 30 30 Corrales........................ 96 62 93 61 / 10 5 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 96 60 93 59 / 10 10 30 30 Placitas........................ 91 60 88 59 / 10 10 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 95 61 91 61 / 10 10 30 40 Socorro......................... 97 63 93 62 / 10 20 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 55 83 55 / 20 10 60 40 Tijeras......................... 87 56 84 57 / 20 10 50 40 Edgewood........................ 86 52 84 52 / 30 10 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 51 84 50 / 30 20 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 80 53 78 53 / 30 30 40 30 Mountainair..................... 87 53 83 54 / 30 20 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 86 54 83 54 / 40 30 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 90 59 86 60 / 40 40 40 40 Ruidoso......................... 80 54 76 55 / 60 40 70 40 Capulin......................... 75 51 77 51 / 60 40 30 10 Raton........................... 79 51 81 51 / 60 40 40 10 Springer........................ 79 51 82 51 / 70 40 40 10 Las Vegas....................... 77 51 77 51 / 60 40 60 30 Clayton......................... 78 58 83 59 / 50 50 10 10 Roy............................. 78 54 79 55 / 60 60 30 20 Conchas......................... 85 60 86 61 / 40 60 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 84 58 83 58 / 40 50 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 83 58 83 60 / 40 60 10 30 Clovis.......................... 88 61 87 63 / 40 70 30 40 Portales........................ 89 61 87 63 / 40 70 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 89 61 88 63 / 30 50 20 30 Roswell......................... 96 66 92 67 / 30 40 20 30 Picacho......................... 89 59 85 59 / 40 40 40 30 Elk............................. 87 55 82 56 / 50 30 50 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44