Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
063 FXUS65 KABQ 121132 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Flooding of small creeks, streams. and arroyos, as well as low- lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of precipitation occur today through Tuesday night. The greatest flash flood risk will be along and west of the central mountain chain as remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond crosses Monday and Monday night. Elevated flows in main stem rivers will also possible. - The latter half of the coming week will feature dry and gusty weather. - A gusty Pacific cold front will cross Thursday and Thursday night, with freezing temperatures across north central, northwest and west central parts of the forecast area early Friday morning and Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 An unsettled pattern will continue through Monday night as the state remains between large scale upper level troughing across the Pacific Coast and upper level ridging over the central U.S along with high subtropical moisture in place. Near term guidance does show some shower development across west central and southwest NM early through mid Sunday morning with locations as far east as ABQ and Santa Fe being impacted by this activity. Come midday Sunday and Sunday afternoon, shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will focus across southwest and south central NM, including Glenwood, Socorro and Ruidoso. This slug of moisture is associated with the remnants of Raymond in the eastern Pacific. With the abundant cloud cover and lack of instability like yesterday, rainfall rates should generally remain low and thus the overall risk for flash flooding is low. Temperatures on Sunday will be near to slightly below average across western and central NM and slightly above average across eastern NM due to the downsloping west winds. Cannot rule out some patchy fog in western valley locations Sunday night into early Monday morning due to the high surface moisture in place. On Monday, the remnant moisture of Raymond across northern Mexico and southwest NM gets pulled northward into the forecast area due to the development of a closed upper low along the Pacific coast on the backside of the overall longwave troughing. Additionally at the surface, a backdoor front will move into northeast and east central NM. This will help focus shower and thunderstorm activity across western and central during the day Monday moving northeast into eastern NM Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Brisk storm motion to the northeast should help limit the flash flood risk, but multiple rounds of rainfall could result in localized areas of flash flooding in normally flood prone areas and the Ruidoso area burn scars. Temperatures will generally be slightly to several degrees below average across the forecast area due to the widespread cloud cover and precipitation along with the backdoor front pushing through northeast and east central NM. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 On Tuesday, the state will still remain in between an upper low over the Great Basin and an upper high over the southern Great Plains. Drier air looks to move into northwest and west central NM with PWATS below 0.5 inch across these parts of the state. Above average PWATs between 0.75 and 1.3 inches will remain across central and eastern NM due to moist southeast surface flow. Fair instability due to partial clearing will allow from some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across central NM during the afternoon and evening hours with a quick motion to the northeast. Wednesday looks pretty similar with the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across mainly north central NM as drier air moves into southwest and far south central NM. By Thursday, the upper low moves over the northern Rockies allowing a Pacific cold front and much drier westerly flow behind it to move through the forecast area. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm across far eastern NM near the Texas border where some higher moisture will linger along with the northern mountains due to orographic lift. Temperatures will cool down below average across western NM. Dry westerly flow and mild fall like temperatures will encompass the entire state by Friday and next weekend. Breezy conditions will exists along the lee slopes of the central mountain chain each afternoon due to the development of a weak surface low across far southeast CO. Will likely also see the first fall freeze during the morning hours for locations across the northeast highlands come this time as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Areas of IFR to MVFR ceilings across west central and the middle RGV through mid this morning among isolated to scattered showers. Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will focus across southern areas, including KONM, KSRR, and KROW during the afternoon and early evening. Some periods of clearing in clouds across far northwest areas, including KFMN, Sunday afternoon and evening. BKN mid level clouds Sunday night into Monday morning with ceilings gradually lowering in the last few hours of the TAF period. Potential for MVFR ceilings across western and central valley locations along with increasing shower activity across southwest areas just before daybreak Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected through late this week. A wetter than normal pattern will continue through mid this week before a rapid drying trend late in the work week and next weekend. Breezy south to southwest winds will become common along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast plains beginning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 67 50 69 53 / 30 40 60 60 Dulce........................... 64 38 64 45 / 60 40 60 70 Cuba............................ 66 46 63 47 / 40 20 60 60 Gallup.......................... 67 48 68 46 / 40 20 50 40 El Morro........................ 63 47 66 46 / 60 20 60 50 Grants.......................... 67 48 67 47 / 60 20 70 60 Quemado......................... 66 48 68 48 / 60 20 40 40 Magdalena....................... 69 51 65 51 / 60 20 60 40 Datil........................... 67 47 65 47 / 50 20 60 50 Reserve......................... 72 51 69 49 / 60 40 60 50 Glenwood........................ 74 54 70 52 / 60 60 70 50 Chama........................... 59 37 59 42 / 50 40 60 70 Los Alamos...................... 68 49 61 50 / 30 20 50 60 Pecos........................... 67 44 60 47 / 20 20 40 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 40 63 45 / 20 10 30 50 Red River....................... 60 33 58 39 / 10 10 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 63 25 61 36 / 10 10 30 50 Taos............................ 69 40 66 45 / 20 10 30 50 Mora............................ 68 39 59 42 / 20 10 40 50 Espanola........................ 73 48 69 49 / 20 10 40 60 Santa Fe........................ 68 49 63 51 / 20 30 40 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 48 67 49 / 20 20 40 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 54 67 54 / 30 20 50 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 55 70 55 / 30 20 60 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 50 72 51 / 30 20 60 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 55 70 55 / 30 20 50 60 Belen........................... 75 55 72 54 / 40 20 60 50 Bernalillo...................... 74 53 70 53 / 30 20 50 60 Bosque Farms.................... 74 52 72 52 / 30 20 60 60 Corrales........................ 74 53 70 53 / 30 20 50 60 Los Lunas....................... 74 54 71 54 / 30 20 60 50 Placitas........................ 70 52 68 52 / 30 20 50 60 Rio Rancho...................... 73 54 70 54 / 30 20 50 60 Socorro......................... 76 57 70 56 / 50 30 50 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 48 62 48 / 40 20 50 60 Tijeras......................... 68 50 64 50 / 40 20 60 60 Edgewood........................ 68 47 62 47 / 30 20 60 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 71 46 64 46 / 30 20 60 60 Clines Corners.................. 68 45 60 47 / 20 20 50 60 Mountainair..................... 69 49 64 48 / 30 20 60 60 Gran Quivira.................... 69 49 64 49 / 40 30 60 60 Carrizozo....................... 70 53 67 54 / 40 30 60 50 Ruidoso......................... 65 46 63 45 / 50 30 60 60 Capulin......................... 74 39 61 44 / 5 10 20 40 Raton........................... 76 39 65 45 / 0 5 20 30 Springer........................ 78 41 66 47 / 0 5 20 40 Las Vegas....................... 71 43 60 46 / 10 20 30 60 Clayton......................... 82 48 65 51 / 5 10 20 40 Roy............................. 77 45 64 49 / 5 10 20 50 Conchas......................... 83 52 69 54 / 5 10 30 60 Santa Rosa...................... 78 51 65 53 / 10 20 40 60 Tucumcari....................... 83 52 70 53 / 10 20 30 60 Clovis.......................... 81 57 71 57 / 20 20 40 50 Portales........................ 82 58 74 58 / 20 20 40 50 Fort Sumner..................... 81 55 70 56 / 10 20 40 60 Roswell......................... 83 60 77 60 / 30 30 40 50 Picacho......................... 78 55 70 55 / 30 30 50 50 Elk............................. 73 52 69 52 / 50 40 50 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71