209
FXUS65 KABQ 222151
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
251 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

- Bitterly cold temperatures are expected again the next couple
  of nights and early mornings, increasing the risk of frostbite
  and hypothermia.

- Light snow showers in the Sangre de Cristo mountains east to the
  I-25 corridor near Las Vegas tonight and tomorrow morning may
  produce up to 1" of snowfall, with little to no impacts.

- The combination of a slow moving disturbance and a backdoor cold
  front will bring chances for precipitation to portions of
  western and north central NM beginning this weekend. The
  disturbance will move over the region from early through mid
  next week, spreading chances for precipitation into central and
  eastern NM. Snow is forecast in the mountains, where at least
  minor travel impacts are possible.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 156 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Bitterly cold conditions currently in place will be reinforced by
another cold front, forecast to push through this evening and
overnight. A round of light snow is likely tonight in the Sangre
De Cristos and along the I-25 corridor near Las Vegas, but amounts
will generally be an inch or less. A warm up is forecast Friday
into Saturday most areas, but another backdoor cold front will
begin to cool-down eastern NM on Saturday. This backdoor cold
front will combine with a disturbance approaching slowly from the
west to bring increasing chances for precipitation from Saturday
through the middle of next week when the disturbance is forecast
to move east over NM. At least minor winter weather impacts are
forecast in the higher terrain beginning early next week and
will continue through mid week, possibly lowering to valley
floors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 156 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Northern and central NM continues to climb out of the deep freeze
today, but a cold front will drop temperatures back down for tonight
and Thursday. In this highly amplified pattern, one shortwave will
slide southward over NM this evening. The backdoor cold front has
already pushed through much of the eastern plains, while the
traditional cold front is pressing through northwest NM this
afternoon. With clear skies and weakening winds, plus extremely low
dewpoints, temperatures will again drop like a rock tonight and any
wind will make it feel much colder. Another round of Cold Weather
Advisories are on tap for much of central and western NM. Despite
the backdoor cold front, eastern areas will remain a few degrees too
warm for any advisories. However, as the backdoor front nudges up to
the Central Mountain Chain and weakly push through, light snow will
develop for the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains as
well as areas toward the I-25 corridor. Amounts are still expected
to be an inch or less, but given the cold temperatures, slick spots
could develop on roadways, including I-25 between Raton and Las
Vegas. This snow may persist through Thursday morning before
diminishing as a secondary shortwave slides over NM. This secondary
wave will also reinforce the cold air over the state. High
temperatures on Thursday will be 10 to 25 degrees below normal. In
fact, several locations will struggle to rise above freezing.
Perhaps not surprising, another round of Cold Weather Advisories
will be needed for Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

After a bitter cold start to the day Friday with the potential
for another round of Cold Weather Advisories, a warm-up is
forecast with highs generally 10-20 degrees warmer than
Thursday`s. This is especially true across eastern NM where
stronger downslope winds will aid the warming. A backdoor cold
front will bring back colder temperatures to much of eastern NM
Saturday, while the warming continues across central and western
NM where highs are forecast to be near to above average. The
backdoor front will move west through the central mountain chain
Saturday evening and result in a gusty east canyon/gap wind into
the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Our forecast speeds are
relatively low and close to the 12Z MOS guidance at this time, but
speeds will likely trend up with subsequent model cycles given the
surface pressure gradient advertised by the 12Z models.

Pacific moisture advection will begin Saturday and continue into
early week, but is looking unimpressive and taking our PWATs from
below normal to near normal. The combination of this bump in
moisture and forcing associated with the backdoor front will be
sufficient to produce a few showers across northern NM late
Saturday into Sunday, but will need to wait for an upper low from
early through mid week to bring added forcing for improved and
more widespread precip chances. There is good agreement among the
12Z medium range model solutions placing an upper low (543-545dam
at 500mb) near Monterey CA late Sunday, but these solutions slowly
depart with the handling of the eastward turning, and potentially
filling, upper low thereafter. The model consensus solutions is
for increasing precip chances from west to east early through mid
next week, with the potential for winter weather impacts initially
favoring the western and northern high terrain. By Tuesday night
into Wednesday, minor winter weather impacts from snow may impact
valley floors as snow levels fall. However, forecast confidence
beyond Monday is low to moderate at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Mountain wave activity from early this morning will wane early
this afternoon. Strong northwest winds will develop across central
and western NM today with gusts near 30kt possible. These winds
will subside around sunset. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is
currently moving through eastern NM and will nudge up to the
Central Mountain Chain this evening. MVFR to IFR cigs will be
possible along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain this
evening and overnight. Additionally, light snow is possible along
and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Low clouds and
snow will diminish Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Exceptionally dry air and breezy to locally windy northwest winds
have allowed RH values to fall into the single digits and elevated
fire weather conditions to develop. Winds will taper off this
evening and very cold conditions will be on tap overnight following
the passage of a cold front. Light snow is also possible around the
Sangre de Cristo to I-25 corridor.  Very cold temperatures/wind
chills will be the rule again Thursday and Thursday night as well
then temps will rebound on Friday. Flow will become more westerly on
Friday, allowing for a lee side trough to develop. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected across east central NM. Another backdoor
front is expected on Saturday while the next storm system organizes
over the Great Basin. This system does look to bring light precip
potentially as early as Sunday and Monday, but better chances look
to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Ventilation rates continue to be a
mixed bag of poor to good through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................   2  36   3  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  -9  33  -7  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................   2  31   3  41 /   0   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  -7  35  -6  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................   2  32   3  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  -4  35  -5  51 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................   5  33   4  53 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  13  32  13  48 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................   8  32   8  50 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................   0  42   1  56 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  11  48  14  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  -4  28  -2  38 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  11  28  12  40 /   5   5   0   0
Pecos...........................   8  29   9  43 /  20  20   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................   1  25   5  39 /   5   5   0   0
Red River.......................  -7  15  -7  33 /  10  10   0   0
Angel Fire...................... -15  20 -18  38 /  20  20   0   0
Taos............................  -5  28  -4  41 /   5  10   0   0
Mora............................   0  27   4  46 /  30  20   0   0
Espanola........................   2  35   2  45 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................   9  28  11  41 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................   7  31   9  42 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  17  34  14  42 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  16  35  13  43 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  11  37   7  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  13  36   9  43 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................   7  37   4  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  13  36  10  45 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................   7  37   3  44 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  13  37  10  44 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................   9  37   5  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  13  32  11  43 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  14  36  11  44 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  14  39  11  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  10  29  10  40 /   5  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  12  30  12  41 /   5  10   0   0
Edgewood........................   6  30   6  43 /  10  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............   1  31   1  45 /   5  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................   7  26   9  40 /   5  20   0   0
Mountainair.....................   7  30   7  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................   9  30   8  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  13  35  13  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  11  29  13  45 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................   2  26   5  47 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................   1  28   1  49 /  20   5   0   0
Springer........................   2  29  -1  49 /  20  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................   4  25   5  49 /  20  20   0   0
Clayton.........................  10  33  12  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................   9  29   6  51 /  20   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  14  36  12  55 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  15  33  16  53 /   0   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  13  35  12  56 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  15  35  16  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  14  36  16  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  14  35  12  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  19  39  14  55 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  14  36  13  57 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  12  34  11  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MST
Thursday for NMZ201-202-204>209-216-218>226-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34