Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
023 FXUS65 KABQ 021120 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 520 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms each of the next several afternoons and evenings favoring western, central, and northern New Mexico. Gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall can occur with any storm. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding this afternoon and evening, lowering to a minor risk mid-week. - Monsoonal moisture increases substantially Friday and Saturday increasing coverage of widespread showers with at least embedded thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1246 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 The 593dm H5 monsoon high remains centered over the UT/AZ border with a deepening synoptic troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS. This keeps NM on the eastern periphery of the monsoon high with modest northerly steering flow aloft. Modest monsoonal moisture remains across the region with Td`s ranging from near 40F across western NM, to mid-40s in the Rio Grande Valley, to 50s and near 60F across the eastern plains. This will set the stage for another day of scattered afternoon convection initiating over the western and northern high terrain. Any isolated to scattered thunderstorm developing along the Continental Divide will be short-lived and slow given the proximity to the high. Thunderstorms developing along the Sangre de Cristo Mts will be longer lived and more rain efficient as they track S/SE over the northeastern highlands thru the afternoon and into the early evening. There is a minor to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding over the HPCC scar, but the overall lack of shear should keep individual cells shorter-lived taming this risk. This combined with the overall health of the burn scar observed this season precludes the need for a Flash Flood Watch today. Meanwhile outflow from showers and thunderstorms will favor gusty and erratic winds pushing thru areas from Santa Fe to Albuquerque and many areas of central and northern NM this evening. Wednesday sees a weak upper low encroach upon the monsoon high, squeezing it meridionally and somewhat shifting eastward over NM. This will act to shunt afternoon convection a bit Wednesday with the same areas favored for convective initiation, but overall less coverage. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1246 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Thursday begins the longer term period with some subtropical moisture advecting northward into AZ and the Four Corners area. Combined with the remnant influence of the aforementioned upper low will act to initiate isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the western portion of the state, favoring the areas along the AZ border and Navajo Nation. Slow moving thunderstorms will threaten small wetting footprints and gusty and erratic winds Thursday afternoon. Drier and hotter conditions will be present over central and eastern NM with highs in the lower elevations in the low to mid-90s. Friday sees a significant change in the weather pattern with a surge of monsoonal moisture advecting northward into the region from the remnants of what has now been designated Tropical Depression 12-E. A second major player will be a jetmax rotating southward around a 525dm H5 low over northern Ontario sending down a surface cold front backing into eastern NM Friday morning. This front will ride up to the east slopes of the central mountain chain, underlying the influx of mid-to-upper level moisture arriving ahead of the tropical cyclone from the EPAC. There is moderate to high confidence for broken to overcast skies, lower temperatures and widespread showers breaking out across the forecast area. Any higher rainfall rates will likely favor the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts where the surface upslope flow behind the surface cold front will help initiate stronger thunderstorms. PWATs surge up over 1.00" by Friday, and to ~1.15" by Saturday. In fact the GFS forecast sounding for ABQ Saturday morning favors a moist adiabat thru the depth of the troposphere. However, much of the rain potential with this system is heavily favored to be eaten up by the Sierra Madre Occidentals before reaching NM. Abundant cloud cover will also limit diurnal surface heating which will act to stabilize the atmosphere and limit convective potential. The current forecast track and prognosis for what is now Tropical Depression 12-E favors a track that stays over warm EPAC waters where SSTs are 25C to 30C with little wind shear allowing this system to strengthen over the coming days. Current satellite imagery also shows an area of very active convection north of the tropical cyclone which supports the GFS scenario of a plume of subtropical moisture being pushed into the region ahead of the remains of the tropical cyclone itself. So at this time, there is good confidence for the uptick in monsoonal moisture arriving Friday and Saturday. The limiting factor as is almost always true with these situations is the abundant cloud cover and lack of forcing that acts to stabilize conditions and limit heavy thunderstorm potential. Thereafter, drier and warmer conditions push in from the west to NM Sunday and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 VFR prevails this morning. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will favor development along the Continental Divide and northern mountains b/w 18Z to 20Z this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be slower moving and shorter lived west of the Rio Grande Valley, while thunderstorms will last longer and be more active along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and over the northeastern highlands. Localized MVFR conditions will follow these cells and has been included at KLVS. Gusty and erratic winds emanating from cells will impact KSAF, KABQ, KAEG, and KGUP. There`s an outside change some remnant dying showers reach as far as KTCC bringing a wind shift there, and have included a PROB30 to account for this. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1246 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 No fire weather concerns thru at least Saturday. New Mexico remains under the influence of a monsoon high centered over the UT/AZ border with a mixed back of good to excellent ventilation each afternoon. Isolated to scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the western and northern high terrain today, with less isolated coverage Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases Thursday afternoon over western NM, staying dry over eastern NM. A surge of monsoonal moisture arrives Friday, peaking Saturday with broken to overcast skies and scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. The main fire weather change will be low mixing heights and widespread poor to fair ventilation. Conditions dry out and warm up Sunday and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 60 89 60 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 85 47 85 47 / 30 10 10 5 Cuba............................ 82 53 83 54 / 30 20 20 10 Gallup.......................... 84 53 84 52 / 20 10 30 20 El Morro........................ 80 54 80 53 / 20 20 50 30 Grants.......................... 84 53 84 53 / 20 20 50 20 Quemado......................... 82 53 81 54 / 30 20 40 30 Magdalena....................... 81 58 82 59 / 10 5 30 10 Datil........................... 78 53 79 53 / 20 10 40 20 Reserve......................... 85 52 87 53 / 30 10 30 20 Glenwood........................ 88 57 90 59 / 20 10 20 10 Chama........................... 77 46 78 47 / 50 20 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 78 56 79 58 / 50 20 30 10 Pecos........................... 78 52 81 53 / 40 30 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 49 79 51 / 60 30 20 10 Red River....................... 69 42 70 43 / 60 30 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 72 38 74 37 / 60 30 20 5 Taos............................ 80 50 82 51 / 50 30 10 5 Mora............................ 75 48 78 48 / 60 30 30 5 Espanola........................ 86 56 87 57 / 40 30 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 80 56 81 57 / 40 30 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 55 85 56 / 30 20 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 64 88 65 / 10 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 63 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 63 92 63 / 10 10 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 63 90 63 / 10 10 5 10 Belen........................... 90 60 91 60 / 5 5 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 90 61 91 63 / 10 10 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 90 59 91 60 / 5 10 5 10 Corrales........................ 90 62 92 63 / 10 10 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 90 60 91 61 / 5 5 5 10 Placitas........................ 85 60 86 61 / 10 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 89 62 91 63 / 10 10 5 10 Socorro......................... 90 64 92 64 / 5 5 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 56 83 57 / 10 10 10 10 Tijeras......................... 82 58 84 58 / 10 10 10 10 Edgewood........................ 83 54 85 54 / 10 10 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 84 51 86 52 / 10 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 78 55 81 55 / 10 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 83 55 84 56 / 10 10 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 82 56 83 56 / 10 10 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 85 60 86 62 / 10 5 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 75 54 77 57 / 10 0 20 5 Capulin......................... 77 51 80 50 / 20 20 5 0 Raton........................... 80 50 83 50 / 40 30 5 0 Springer........................ 81 51 85 51 / 40 30 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 78 51 81 51 / 40 30 20 5 Clayton......................... 83 58 89 56 / 5 10 0 0 Roy............................. 80 55 84 54 / 20 30 5 5 Conchas......................... 86 61 90 60 / 10 20 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 85 58 88 59 / 10 20 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 83 58 89 57 / 0 20 0 10 Clovis.......................... 88 61 91 62 / 0 5 0 10 Portales........................ 89 60 92 62 / 0 5 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 88 61 91 61 / 0 10 5 10 Roswell......................... 91 62 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 58 89 61 / 5 0 10 5 Elk............................. 83 55 85 58 / 10 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24