268
FXUS65 KABQ 120933
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 302 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low
  water crossings through early this week, especially along the
  east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains, due to melting
  snow.

- Dry and increasingly windy conditions are forecast Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph for western areas and the
  highlands on Tuesday and then for the central mountains chain
  eastward on Wednesday. Parts of western and south central NM
  will also see low humidity with an increased risk of rapid fire
  spread.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

An upper level trough will move inland over the Great Basin today
and Tuesday strengthening southwest flow aloft over western parts of
the forecast area today, and causing the subtropical and polar
jetstreams to converge over the AZ border on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, a
sharp lee-side surface trough will develop south of a ~988 mb
surface low over eastern CO on Tuesday.  This will set the stage for
wind gusts up to 40 mph over the Gallup and Zuni areas this
afternoon, then gusts from 40 to 55 mph across the forecast area on
Tuesday.  Some of the model guidance suggests gusts could reach up
to 60 mph over Gallup, Clines Corners, Ruidoso, and Dunken on
Tuesday, but that is a new development, so we will wait another
model run to see if models can come into better agreement before
issuing a High Wind Watch for Tuesday.

Another new development is an updated Energy Release Component and
updated Fire Danger Forecast from the USFS.  These now indicate high
fire danger for Gallup, our southwest mountains, and south central
areas including all of Socorro County. Therefore, with this
forecast package we will issue Fire Weather Watches for these
areas for Tuesday (and Wednesday).

Meanwhile, today will be the warmest day of the week with highs
varying from 4-11 degrees above 1991-2020 averages.  Readings will
remain up to 10 degrees above the averages across eastern areas on
Tuesday, while central and western readings fall a few to 6 degrees
from today`s highs. In addition, high resolution models indicate
enough mid-level moisture will be in place today for isolated and
gusty virga showers over central parts of the forecast area this
afternoon and early evening.  The operational run of the Canadian
Model also shows this, and it usually does a good job with these
things.  Localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph will
be possible near better developed virga showers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Westerly winds aloft will continue trending up Tuesday night in
advance of the approaching upper level trough, forecast to move
over the southern Rockies and NM on Wednesday. 300mb wind speeds
are forecast to reach up to between 100-110kts as the trough axis
moves over Wednesday and with deep layer mixing forecast, a few
surface gusts may approach warning criteria. However, the forecast
is for advisory speeds at this time, with the stronger winds
expected along/east of the central mountain chain. Patches of
blowing dust will likely materialize Wednesday afternoon, but
areas impacted are more difficult to discern due to recent
rainfall. Blowing dust is more likely in the lower RGV, Upper
Tularosa Valley and near Roswell. The upper level trough will push
a Pacific cold front through Wednesday and high temperatures are
forecast to be below average across north central and western NM.
Thursday will be cooler overall behind the front, with less wind
as the upper level trough pulls east away from NM. However, a
trailing trough will approach Thursday and lead to late day
breeziness most areas. Moderate and dry westerly flow will prevail
Friday, bringing temperatures up a few more degrees and leading
to some late day breezy/gusty conditions. A potent late season
upper level low is forecast to drop southeast from the Pacific NW
toward the southern Great Basin and Desert SW next weekend,
brining increasing winds to NM. At this time, Sunday looks to be
the windiest day next weekend, with potential for areas of blowing
dust.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. High
temperatures will climb well above 1991-2020 averages today, so
there will be deep atmospheric mixing and gusty winds in the
afternoon area-wide. High resolution models expect enough mid-
level moisture for some gusty virga showers over central areas
this afternoon until sunset. These virga showers are likely to
produce localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 40 KT,
potentially impacting KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF. The flow aloft will
strengthen with sunset, so the afternoon wind gusts will persist
into Monday night in many locations. Surface winds will probably
only decouple from the strong flow aloft in the lowest valley
bottoms near or after midnight Monday night, with places like
Gallup, Las Vegas, Angel Fire, and Ruidoso remaining at least
occasionally gusty all night long. Further, there will probably
be some low level wind shear in the Four Corners area for the
remainder of tonight. Low level wind shear looks to become more
widespread over the western half of the forecast area Monday
night, and to a lesser extent over south-central and southeast
areas including Ruidoso and Roswell.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AROUND GALLUP, THEN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND WEST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

As mentioned in the Short-Term Forecast above, updated Fire Danger
and ERC guidance, as well as strong winds and very low humidities
expected this week, now necessitate fire weather headlines today
through Wednesday. These headlines may be expanded over more of
central and western pars of the fire weather forecast area for
Tuesday and Wednesday as additional updated Fire Danger Forecasts
come our way from the USFS early this week. An upper level trough
will begin to strengthen the flow aloft over western areas today,
then areawide on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Peak gusts could reach up
to 60 mph in some areas Tuesday, and up to 65 mph on Wednesday. Wind
gusts from 35-40 mph look to linger along and east of the central
mountain chain on Thursday creating more critical fire weather. Fire
danger is currently forecast to be too low for fire weather
highlights over the northern mountains and eastern plains.  We will
see if that changes this week.

Another concern will be localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up
to 45 mph over central parts of the forecast area from isolated
virga showers this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  51  81  43 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  78  39  76  33 /   0   5   5   0
Cuba............................  78  46  76  38 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  81  44  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  77  46  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  82  45  78  38 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  47  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  81  54  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  78  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  84  44  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  89  49  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  71  38  69  33 /   0   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  77  52  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  76  50  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  74  44  72  41 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  63  39  61  35 /   5   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  70  36  68  36 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  77  41  75  38 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  74  44  73  43 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  83  49  82  45 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  78  51  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  81  50  81  46 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  59  84  55 /  10  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  57  86  53 /  10  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  56  89  52 /  10  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  57  86  52 /  10  10   0   0
Belen...........................  89  53  89  52 /  10  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  88  55  87  51 /  10  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  89  52  88  50 /  10  10   0   0
Corrales........................  89  56  88  52 /  10  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  89  54  88  51 /  10  10   0   0
Placitas........................  83  56  82  53 /  10  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  88  56  86  52 /  10  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  91  59  91  56 /  10  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  52  78  48 /  10  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  81  53  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  81  49  81  47 /  10  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  47  82  44 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  77  47  76  45 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  81  50  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  81  50  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  84  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  77  55  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  77  48  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  81  45  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  81  46  79  46 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  78  47  77  48 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  86  57  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  82  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  89  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  85  56  84  55 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  88  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  64  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  88  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  86  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ105.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ105-106-109-124.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ105-106-109-124.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44