469
FXUS65 KABQ 092213 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
413 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

- After quiet weather Sunday and Monday, winds trend stronger mid-
  week as another Pacific storm moves through. Light rain/snow
  will favor western areas while winds and fire weather concerns
  return to south central and eastern New Mexico.

- A very strong, multi-hazard Spring storm system will impact the
  region Thursday through Saturday. The main hazards will be
  widespread strong to damaging wind gusts, increased fire danger
  and blowing dust in the east, and snow that will favor the
  western and northern mountains.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Sunny, mild and tranquil weather continues Monday. Stronger
southwest winds across southern areas on Tuesday and west to
northwest winds across eastern areas on Wednesday as a system moves
quickly across the Desert Southwest. Some light rain and snow
showers possible across western and central NM Tuesday night through
midday Wednesday. Some fire weather concerns to south central NM
Tuesday and southeast New Mexico Wednesday. Still looking at very
strong to damaging winds for many areas late Thursday and especially
Friday as a deep Pacific storm moves into the intermountain West.
Beneficial rain and snow and much colder temperatures across western
and north central New Mexico Thursday evening into Friday.
Meanwhile, wind gusts of 50 to 75 mph and areas of blowing dust
across much of central and eastern New Mexico during the day Friday.
Temperatures warm up a little on Saturday with gusty northwest winds
areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Clear skies and perfect weather reign supreme over the Land of
Enchantment today and tonight as high pressure ridging slides across
the region. Temperatures are trending colder were remnant snow on
the ground is limiting daytime warming. Another round of patchy fog
is likely tonight into Monday morning in the far northwestern
highlands east of Farmington and within the Moreno Valley at Angel
Fire. The ridge begins to break down Monday allowing breezy
southwesterly winds most areas in the afternoon. Highs trend warmer
another 5F to 15F relative to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A VERY STRONG LATE WINTER STORM TO
BRING MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS TO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

Southwest winds increase, especially across southern and eastern
areas on Tuesday due to strengthening mid and upper level flow ahead
of a weakening upper low moving into southern CA and AZ. Wind gusts
of 30 to 45 mph expected across the northeast highlands and southern
areas. High temps on Tuesday cool a touch across western NM, but
remain mild and very similar to Monday`s temps across central and
eastern NM due to downslope southwest winds. The open wave trough
moves into NM Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing some
rain and snow to west central and southwest NM. Rain and snow
chances will dramatically decrease the further east you go, due to
the trough dampening out along with downslope westerly winds. The
trough quickly exits into the Texas Panhandle midday Wednesday.
Gusty northwest winds will quickly develop across across central and
eastern NM in it`s wake. with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph possible.

This system will just serve as a primer for the stronger and deeper
longwave Pacific trough moving into the western U.S on Thursday. 500-
700 mb winds over the state ahead of the trough will quickly ramp up
to around 40 to 55 kts. This along with the development of a 985 to
990 mb surface low over eastern CO and deep mixing heights, will
result in wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph across the most areas by
Thursday evening. The deep trough moves into the Intermountain West
Thursday night into Friday morning eventually closing off into an
around 535 dam 500 mb low over the Four Corners area by Friday
morning, according to ensemble cluster guidance. When looking at the
NAEFS ensemble guidance for this system, these modeled upper and mid
level heights along with surface pressures would be at min record
values and 3 to 4 standard deviations below average for mid March.
The strong gradient south of the deep low and subsidence behind the
Pacific front will keep winds gusty overnight especially across the
higher terrain with 700 mb winds strengthening to 50 to 65 kts.
Upslope flow and better moisture behind the Pacific front will
result in rain quickly changing over to snow for most areas along
and west of the central mountain chain due to 700 mb winds quickly
drop from 0 to 3 deg C to -8 to -11 deg C by sunrise Friday morning.
Ensemble guidance shows generally 3 to 8 inches of snow across the
western and north central mountains, with the higher amounts across
the Tusas Mountains near the CO border. Those travelling across
the northern and western high terrain should expect blowing snow
Thursday night and Friday morning. Areas east of the central
mountain chain will see very little if any precipitation Thursday
might through midday Friday due to the very strong downsloping
west winds. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remains in good
agreement for very strong to damaging west winds across much of
the state during the day Friday as the 525 to 540 dam low ejects
into eastern CO, western KS, northeast NM and the OK Panhandle
midday. The combination of a 975 mb sfc low over eastern Kansas
along with 500 to 700 mb winds of 45 to 65 kts over the state will
result in potential surface wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph across
central NM and eastern NM. This will result in areas of blowing
dust especially in the Roswell area along with the potential to
knock down numerous trees and power lines along and east of the
central mountain chain. Western and central NM will be much colder
with highs well below average on Friday behind the Pacific front
with eastern NM not as cold due to the downslope west winds. While
the deterministic models show really good agreement in regards to
the track of this system, ensemble clusters show a notable amount
of spread in terms of where the corridor of the highest winds
will end up across central and eastern NM, so individuals should
stay weather aware and stay tuned to the latest forecast on our
website and social media accounts.

The potent 520 to 530 dam 500 mb low races north over the upper
Midwest Saturday. However, stiff northwest flow of 35 to 45 kt at
700 mb in it`s wake will still result in gusty surface winds for
most areas, through not as strong as Friday. The strongest winds
with gusts of up to 40 to 55 mph will be across the central and
southeast NM. Temperatures will rebound around 3 to 10 degrees
compared to Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with mostly light winds. Gusty southwest winds will pick up
late Monday afternoon at KLVS and KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH WINDS TO IMPACT NM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...

High pressure slides across NM today, breaking down Monday. This
will bring a return of southwesterly flow aloft Monday afternoon
after a tranquil day today. These winds will increase in strength
Tuesday afternoon resulting in widespread elevated fire weather
conditions with critical conditions focused over south-central
portions of NM. A weakening weather system then crosses NM Tuesday
night thru Wednesday. Temperatures trend cooler areawide, with light
precipitation favoring the central and western high terrain. Breezy
downsloping westerlies east of the central mountain chain will still
yield elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon despite
the cool down.

Thereafter, guidance continues to show a strong signal for a
concerning fire growing pattern arriving from the west Thursday and
lasting through Friday. Southwesterly winds increase ahead of this
abnormally strong and cold storm system, with dry and warm
conditions combining with the wind to yield critical fire weather
conditions thru the southeastern half of NM. The core of this storm
system looks to quickly cross NM Thursday night into Friday morning
with a Pacific cold front bringing a westerly shift in wind
direction. Cold and winter weather looks to favor west slopes of the
western and northern high terrain, while downsloping westerlies
behind the cold front punch thru the eastern plains of NM. A rapid
strengthening of this system looks likely as it ejects eastward over
the central Great Plains allowing strong westerly winds, potentially
gusting 45 to 65 mph, to arise thru much of the eastern two-thirds
of NM. The strongest wind gusts would favor the highlands immediately
east of the central mountain chain from Las Vegas southward to
Ruidoso. A sharp drop in temperatures will abate a rapid fall in
humidity, currently forecast to bottom out between 15 to 20 percent
over central and eastern lower elevations. This will be of little
grace to hold onto for the eastern half of NM given the potential
for strong wind gusts and little to no forecast precipitation along
and east of the central mountain chain.

While there is at the time of this writing, relatively high forecast
confidence for this event, it is still out at Day 6. The synoptic
setup and orientation of certain meteorological factors are such
that there is still room for adjustments to track of the strong
jetmax bringing these strong winds to shift north or south for this
timeframe. Being weather aware and up-to-date on the latest forecast
information regarding the Thursday and Friday timeframe will be of
great benefit to anyone with outdoor activities these days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  23  61  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  16  61  18  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  22  61  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  14  64  17  62 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  26  61  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  18  65  19  64 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  22  63  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  30  63  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  26  61  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  17  66  18  62 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  20  70  23  67 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  54  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  31  60  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  28  60  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  27  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  19  50  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   8  55  14  54 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  18  59  20  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  24  62  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  23  67  24  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  60  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  63  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  65  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  67  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  25  69  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  31  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  19  69  20  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  29  68  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  19  69  20  70 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  29  69  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  20  68  21  70 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  33  64  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  29  71  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  61  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  32  62  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  25  65  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  16  67  19  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  27  63  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  26  63  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  27  62  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  31  64  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  28  61  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  28  64  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  23  67  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  19  68  22  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  24  66  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  34  73  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  68  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  75  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  71  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  30  76  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  33  74  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  31  74  33  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  28  74  31  76 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  32  76  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  32  72  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11