Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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175 FXUS65 KABQ 261911 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 111 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 - Isolated severe storms will develop in eastern New Mexico this afternoon. A few storms will produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts. There is a low chance of tornadoes and flash flooding. - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of fire spread along and southwest of the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley today, with stronger southwest winds on Sunday creating a more widespread risk of fire spread. - Strong southwest winds may down tree limbs and cause damage to utility poles in central and eastern New Mexico Sunday afternoon. Blowing dust and hazardous crosswinds may impact travel. - Chances for showers and storms will increase going into the middle of next week across eastern and portions of northern NM. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Strong to severe storms may develop east of the central mountain chain today, with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat, with a low chance of a tornado. A minor flash flooding risk exists in areas that received substantial rain last night. Strong winds and low humidity values will create widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. Blowing dust, especially in areas that have received little to no precipitation, may cause visibility to drop below a half mile. Scattered showers and high elevation snow favor northern and eastern areas Tuesday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 A potent upper level low over central CA will wobble east over NV/UT through Sunday night, with strong southwest flow aloft spreading over the Desert SW and NM. Right now, what remains of the backdoor cold front is modifying and mixing with richer Gulf moisture, advecting northwest from far west TX. Surface dewpoint temperatures in the 50s to low 60s characterize this airmass, with low level moisture sufficiently deep to fuel another round of convection later this afternoon/evening east of the central mountain chain. Instability and shear across the east central and southeast plains are favorable for another round of severe storms and the SPC has upgraded the day one convective outlook to show a slight risk. In addition to large hail, we can not rule out isolated tornadoes given the strong veering wind profiles just off of the surface and healthy east-southeast inflow. Issued a Flash Flood Watch earlier for this afternoon/evening for De Baca, Curry and Quay Counties, where heavy rains of up to 7" fell over the past 24hrs. Very little additional rainfall is needed to cause additional flash flooding and that area is exactly where the latest HRRR and HREF develop storms in a couple of hours. Dry air aloft will put the kibosh on convection by midnight, then mix to the surface Sunday with strong southwest winds developing by noon. Added the middle RGV to the High Wind Warning and issued a Wind Advisory for some of the surrounding zones for Sunday. Patches of blowing dust will likely develop Sunday afternoon, but recent precipitation makes defining the exact areas even more difficult. The RGV, Upper Tularosa Valley and areas near Roswell make the most sense for blowing dust Sunday afternoon. The upper level low will move east into the southern Rockies late Sunday night, turning our winds to the west and bringing a weak Pacific cold front through. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Windy conditions remain across northeast NM Monday as upper and mid level winds remain strong and a lee surface low forms in southeast CO/northeast NM. Combined with very dry, well mixed surface layers, wind gusts between 35-45mph are possible. Isolated windy conditions also appear likely across the Sacramento Mountains, with ~40kt 700mb flow latching onto the mountain range. A backdoor front pushes into northeast NM late Monday night and works up against the central mountain chain by Tuesday morning, perhaps creating a brief period of gusty gap winds, though confidence is not high on this. Moisture behind the front interacting with synoptic forcing may work to induce showers and thunderstorms across the northeast and eastern parts of NM Tuesday afternoon and evening. Drier air begins to work its way into NM Wednesday as an upper level trough approaches, however dryline-induced thunderstorms will again be possible across the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. Additional embedded shortwaves and vorticity lobes in the upper level flow attempt to materialize showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains, northeast and eastern NM Thursday. A backdoor front pushes into eastern NM late Thursday into Friday, which is likely to return moisture to the region and more dryline-induced thunderstorms Friday and into the weekend. On a temperature front, high temperatures are likely to wobble between 5F below and 5F above average throughout much of the week for much of the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist west of the central mountain chain, but MVFR and even IFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across eastern NM. Moisture across eastern NM will fuel another round of storms this afternoon/evening, with impacts likely at KTCC and much less likely at KROW. Some improvement is forecast this afternoon across eastern NM, but deterioration is likely this evening and overnight. Kept KROW VFR, but there are low probabilities for IFR conditions to develop overnight. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds are forecast today across central and western NM and an Airport Weather Warning may be required at KABQ for gusts to 35kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THEN POSSIBLY EASTERN NM MONDAY... Critical fire weather conditions will continue across central and western portions of the area through early this evening, then redevelop and become more widespread across all of western and central NM on Sunday as winds aloft trend up and a lee side trough deepens. Fire growth from lightning starts along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos is possible Sunday. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will redevelop Monday, but be limited to eastern portions of the area that have had some recent wetting rain. Portions of northeast NM may require a warning on Monday if fuels are determined to be receptive to fire spread. Temperatures will drop to near/below average behind a Pacific front Monday through Wednesday. The combination of an upper level trough and backdoor front will bring chances for wetting showers and storms Tue/Wed, mainly to northern and eastern NM. Another trough may bring chances for wetting storms, mainly to eastern NM, on Friday. Chances for critical fire weather conditions will be back on the uptrend next weekend as a potent west coast trough moves inland and steers stronger westerlies over the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 70 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 35 69 30 62 / 0 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 39 71 31 63 / 0 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 31 66 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 67 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 34 72 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 67 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 45 74 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 38 68 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 70 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 37 75 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 64 28 56 / 0 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 71 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 41 72 35 63 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 67 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 36 58 28 52 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 32 65 25 57 / 20 0 0 0 Taos............................ 36 71 30 64 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 38 70 33 63 / 20 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 46 78 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 73 38 63 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 76 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 78 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 80 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 81 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 80 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 44 83 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 81 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 44 82 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 81 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 43 82 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 50 77 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 49 80 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 47 84 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 72 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 47 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 43 75 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 76 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 40 72 35 65 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 75 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 80 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 73 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 45 72 37 66 / 30 0 0 0 Raton........................... 43 76 34 70 / 30 0 0 0 Springer........................ 44 77 36 71 / 30 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 73 37 66 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 50 80 45 74 / 30 0 0 0 Roy............................. 48 77 41 69 / 40 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 52 86 46 78 / 40 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 83 45 75 / 30 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 86 48 78 / 50 0 5 0 Clovis.......................... 56 87 51 81 / 40 5 10 0 Portales........................ 55 88 50 82 / 30 0 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 88 49 80 / 50 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 55 94 55 87 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 48 85 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 49 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105- 106-109-120>125. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ208-211- 216>218-230>233-238-241. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105-106-109. High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ212>215- 219>229-239-240. Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-235-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...11 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.