795
FXUS65 KABQ 071048
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
348 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

 - A major winter storm will continue to impact portions of the
   state with heavy snowfall and blizzard-like conditions through
   Friday night. Expect dangerous travel conditions and several
   road closures.

 - Some roads may be closed for an extended period of time due to
   heavy snowfall and drifts that may exceed 6 feet in depth.

 - The weight of wet snow on trees and fall foliage will result in
   downed branches that can fall on power lines. Power outages are
   likely, and have already been reported.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

Last week, New Mexico enjoyed record heat, and now Mother Nature
is bringing record snowfall to several locations in the northern
high terrain and adjacent highlands. A major, slow-moving, winter
storm continues to impact the region with heavy snow accumulations
already reported. Through late Friday night, an additional 6 to 18
inches can be expected across the northwest and west central high
terrain. Similar amounts can be expected for the mountains east of
Albuquerque eastward to near Santa Rosa. The greatest amounts and
impacts will be in the Sangre de Cristos into the northeast plains
where an additional 1 to 4 feet are expected, greatest across the
mountain peaks. Strong winds in this region will also create near
blizzard conditions. The weight of the snow can snap tree branches
that may result in power outages. The storm will depart the region
on Saturday morning, leaving well below normal temperatures in its
wake due to lingering snow cover. This snow cover could also lead
to areas of freezing fog during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 219 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

A strong upper level low pressure system centered over east
central AZ early this morning will track gradually eastward over
southwest and south central parts of the forecast area today and
tonight, then lift northeastward across eastern areas on Friday,
before exiting northeastward across the panhandles and into KS on
Friday night. The storm system has a nice moisture tap, and it has
drawn rich low level moisture into the state behind a backdoor
cold front overnight. The upper level dynamics with this slow-
moving power house of a storm are also very strong leading to
heavy snow that has already fallen in the mountains and over east
slope locations, including around 9 inches in Santa Fe. The heavy
snow will continue over the mountains, adjacent east slopes, the
upper Rio Grande Valley and Santa Fe, as well as northeast areas
and western parts of the eastern plains today through tonight.
Southeast areas from Clovis to Roswell and Duncan will probably
remain a little too warm to accumulate snow. Additional snow
amounts of 1 to locally over 3 feet will favor the mountains and
northeast areas, as well as the east central highlands. Only a few
additional inches are forecast at lower elevations west of the
continental divide, with lighter amounts in the middle Rio Grande
Valley...except for up to 5 additional inches in Rio Rancho and
Albuquerque`s west mesa. Tucumcari ASOS has been reporting unknown
precip early this morning, and forecast soundings suggest some
freezing rain in the mix along I-40 as far west as Santa Rosa
this morning. There will also be some embedded thunderstorms today
mainly over southern and eastern areas.

Precip coverage and intensity will decrease from the southwest on
Friday with snow showers lingering over the northern mountains and
northeast Friday night. Tonight into Friday morning, areas of fog
and freezing fog are forecast as the cloud cover begins to decrease
from the southwest. More freezing fog will be possible Friday night
into Saturday morning. Lastly, the Roswell area will probably have
its first freeze of the season Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

Aforementioned powerful upr low will pivot into the central Great
Plains Saturday morning with some wrap-around moisture lingering
across the northern mtns through 18Z. Otherwise, expect a brisk
west-northwest flow to persist, and this will lead to gusty winds
in the favored KCQC to KTCC/KCVS corridor. High temps should not
only fall victim to continued CAA, but also significant snow cover
in the wake of the storm. Pattern recognition suggests that many
locales will fall short of the advertised NBM guidance.

On Sunday, a low amplitude ridge axis will migrate pretty quickly
across the state. This should allow for temperatures to be 5 to 10
degrees warmer with weaker surface winds under mostly sunny skies.
In the wake of the ridge axis, a moisture starved shortwave should
quickly translate across the CWA Sunday night into Monday morning.
This wave is not expected to have a notable impact to the sensible
weather other than a few high clouds.

A more pronounced and deeper trough originating from the Gulf of
Alaska will dive southward into the Intermountain West for Monday
into Tuesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this should
bring another batch of colder air with it. However; there is still
quite a bit of spread on whether it will be a deeper/slower trough
or flatter/more progressive feature. The first option (60% prob)
will bring wind to northern and central NM while the second option
(40% prob) would shift the greater wind impacts into the central
and southern parts of NM with snow in the northern mts. Regardless,
any snow impacts will be nowhere near the magnitude of the current
blockbuster event. DPorter

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

Widespread snow continues across northern and central NM late
this evening. This snow will persist through Thursday and into
Friday before diminishing from southwest to northeast. LIFR and
IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail at most TAF sites (sans KROW) and
mountain obscurations are likely over the next 24 hours. In
addition to the precipitation, a backdoor cold front has just
pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain. East canyon
winds gusting to near 35kt are possible at KABQ through Thursday
morning. Thereafter, winds are expected to slowly decrease, but
snow will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024

Widespread wetting precip including heavy snow will continue
through Friday. Temperatures well below normal will also continue
until the weekend when drier and warmer conditions are forecast
into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  28  43  25 /  70  40  20   0
Dulce...........................  37  15  38  19 /  70  60  60  20
Cuba............................  33  17  34  16 /  90  80  60  20
Gallup..........................  34  17  40  13 /  80  50  20   0
El Morro........................  31  20  35  18 /  80  60  30   5
Grants..........................  32  17  37  14 /  90  70  40   0
Quemado.........................  33  19  36  16 /  70  50  30   0
Magdalena.......................  33  24  39  23 /  90  60  30   0
Datil...........................  32  19  35  19 /  80  60  30   0
Reserve.........................  38  14  48  16 /  40  30  10   0
Glenwood........................  44  25  53  29 /  30  20   5   0
Chama...........................  31  19  35  18 /  70  70  80  30
Los Alamos......................  31  24  32  24 /  90  80  80  20
Pecos...........................  31  25  33  23 / 100  80  90  30
Cerro/Questa....................  30  21  33  21 /  80  90  90  40
Red River.......................  23  17  26  16 /  90  90  90  60
Angel Fire......................  26  10  29  10 /  90  90  90  50
Taos............................  31  19  35  19 /  90  90  90  30
Mora............................  28  20  33  17 / 100  90  90  30
Espanola........................  35  23  37  22 /  90  80  80  20
Santa Fe........................  32  24  33  23 /  90  90  80  20
Santa Fe Airport................  33  21  34  20 /  90  80  80  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  35  30  37  26 /  90  70  60  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  37  29  39  24 /  90  70  60  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  38  29  41  24 /  90  70  60  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  36  29  38  26 /  90  70  60  10
Belen...........................  39  26  44  21 /  90  70  50   5
Bernalillo......................  36  27  39  24 /  90  70  70  10
Bosque Farms....................  40  25  43  21 /  90  70  50   5
Corrales........................  36  28  39  24 /  90  70  60  10
Los Lunas.......................  39  27  43  22 /  90  70  50   5
Placitas........................  34  27  36  24 /  90  70  70  10
Rio Rancho......................  35  28  38  25 /  90  70  60  10
Socorro.........................  38  30  47  25 /  90  60  40   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  23  33  20 /  90  70  70  10
Tijeras.........................  32  26  34  21 /  90  70  70  10
Edgewood........................  31  21  34  17 /  90  80  70  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  32  19  35  13 /  90  80  70  10
Clines Corners..................  28  22  30  19 / 100  80  70  20
Mountainair.....................  30  24  36  19 /  90  70  60  10
Gran Quivira....................  32  23  37  20 /  90  70  60  10
Carrizozo.......................  38  28  43  27 /  90  60  40   5
Ruidoso.........................  35  24  39  26 /  90  50  30   0
Capulin.........................  27  24  29  17 / 100 100 100  40
Raton...........................  30  24  34  15 / 100  90  90  30
Springer........................  31  27  35  14 / 100 100  90  30
Las Vegas.......................  29  24  33  16 / 100  90  90  20
Clayton.........................  33  31  34  26 / 100 100 100  30
Roy.............................  32  28  34  17 / 100 100  90  30
Conchas.........................  37  32  38  23 / 100  90  90  20
Santa Rosa......................  34  30  36  24 / 100  80  80  20
Tucumcari.......................  41  33  39  26 / 100  90  90  20
Clovis..........................  46  39  46  31 /  90  90  70  10
Portales........................  48  39  48  31 /  90  90  60   5
Fort Sumner.....................  40  34  42  25 /  90  80  70  10
Roswell.........................  45  40  53  32 /  60  60  30   0
Picacho.........................  38  30  49  28 /  70  60  30   0
Elk.............................  41  26  50  26 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ204-206>208-
211-212-217>219-221>224-226-233-239-241.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Friday for NMZ210-213>216-
227>232.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ220-225-
237.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Friday for NMZ234.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
NMZ201>203-205.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...34