Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
047 FXUS65 KABQ 150032 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 632 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Flooding of creeks, streams, and arroyos will be a concern across the area in locations with repeated rounds of rainfall. The Animas River and San Juan River near Farmington may cause minor flooding impacts. - Patchy fog will limit visibility to one quarter of a mile at times tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly in the highlands to the east of the central mountain chain, including areas near Las Vegas and Clines Corners. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms over much of central NM today and over much of north central NM on Wednesday. - The first freeze of the season is possible for areas in the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains and near Reserve this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A dense fog advisory has been issued for the northeast and central highlands, including Las Vegas and Clines Corners where one quarter of a mile has been persistent. This may need to be expanded later this evening to the South Central mountains and nearby highlands, as temperature-dewpoint depressions are already near zero, and nearby showers and storms have saturated soils. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The wet start to the week continues today as showers with some rumbles of thunder are gliding across far eastern NM early this afternoon, giving way for expected development of showers and thunderstorms across the central mountain chain. This is in response to the remnant tropical moisture still remaining over NM while an upper level speed max provides a secondary method of lift in addition to orographic forcing. With the orientation of the low level flow compared to the speed max, training thunderstorms are a possibility across east central NM through the late afternoon. Training and/or repeated rounds of thunderstorms may increase a localized flash flood threat in poor drainage and low lying areas. This is highlighted by the Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall by the WPC. Additionally, sufficient 0-6km bulk shear near or exceeding 50kts and modest SBCAPE near or over 1000 J/kg supports an atmosphere capable of producing a strong to severe thunderstorm. This is well highlighted by the SPC`s Marginal Risk over much of central NM through this afternoon. There is question as to whether mid-level dry air may limit storms that can develop, or if low clouds across eastern NM do not allow for sufficient surface heating. These factors are limiting any higher confidence in the development of severe storms today. Through tonight, a second round of showers with embedded thunderstorms is likely to develop near or after midnight due to the continued influence from an approaching potent upper level trough. These showers are likely to continue into the early morning hours, moving from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and then tapering off most likely by 7am except for the northern mountains. That is where Wednesday`s precipitation will focus, as upslope south/southeast flow continues to be enhanced by upper level forcing from the speed max and associated trough. Bulk shear and SBCAPE will once again be sufficient enough for a strong storm or two to potentially develop, but the same caveats as Tuesday also remain. Elsewhere, temperatures remain roughly within 5 degrees of normal, and a blanket of low clouds and isolated instances of fog are likely Wednesday morning across eastern and parts of central NM. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be continuing through Thursday morning/mid afternoon across the northern mountains as the upper level low continues to provide influence. As the upper low progresses eastward and the trough axis passes through NM, drier air will make its way into the state late Thursday into Friday, nearly shutting down precipitation chances outside of a stray shower across the highest terrain. Alongside this, pressure height falls on the backside of the trough as well as a building ridge are very likely to produce mainly clear skies and calm conditions. With these in place, low temperatures are expected to fall near or below freezing for a few locations across northern and western NM for the first time this season. As such, consideration for Freeze Watches and subsequent Freeze Warnings may be needed as we get closer to the weekend. Outside of sub-freezing temperatures overnight, a pleasant stretch of weather is expected through the weekend as the ridge continues to build into place. As we approach next week, the general model trend shows the ridge breaking down as a Pacific upper level low approaches from the west. A return to windy conditions may be on the horizon, as these patterns this time of year normally bring increased winds. MEX and ECX guidance also show an increase in winds along and east of the central mountain in the normally windy areas (Clines Corners, Las Vegas). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have been very sparse and isolated, and confidence in the overnight coverage is fairly low, despite forecast models insisting more development through the night. Activity that does develop tonight will favor central New Mexico, moving from south to north. Areas along and just east of the central mountain chain will remain prone to low stratus and MVFR to IFR ceilings with patchy fog also persisting through the morning Wednesday. Most locations will hover near the 1000 ft ceiling threshold between the IFR-MVFR category. However, isolated pockets of dense fog, namely near KLVS, KCQC, and KSRR will drop to the VLIFR category, shutting down airfields in 1/4 mile visibility and 200 ft ceilings. Low clouds and fog will be stubborn to erode away through the late morning and early afternoon Wednesday, but southerly winds are expected to increase and assist with this effort with widespread gusts of 20-30 kt. Showers and storms will be concentrated over north central New Mexico with a couple of strong to severe storms expected with hail, frequent lightning, and gusty downburst winds Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms with wetting footprints are likely across much of central and northern NM this afternoon/evening, tonight, and Wednesday. A drying trend begins Thursday through the weekend, where calm conditions may bring the first freeze to some western and northern locations. Winds are looking favorable to increase next week with the approach of an upper level trough, but timing and strength are still in question. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 73 42 60 / 20 30 10 0 Dulce........................... 43 69 39 61 / 50 80 70 5 Cuba............................ 50 69 40 60 / 40 60 50 10 Gallup.......................... 44 68 33 60 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 47 71 38 60 / 5 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 49 75 39 65 / 10 30 10 0 Quemado......................... 48 72 38 63 / 5 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 71 47 68 / 30 5 10 0 Datil........................... 50 71 40 65 / 20 10 5 0 Reserve......................... 47 75 39 70 / 5 5 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 78 43 73 / 10 5 0 0 Chama........................... 42 64 37 56 / 50 80 70 10 Los Alamos...................... 52 65 49 62 / 70 70 70 20 Pecos........................... 50 64 47 62 / 80 60 70 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 67 45 60 / 50 50 60 10 Red River....................... 42 59 39 52 / 40 40 60 10 Angel Fire...................... 38 64 37 59 / 50 40 60 10 Taos............................ 49 70 46 64 / 50 50 70 5 Mora............................ 47 63 45 64 / 70 60 70 20 Espanola........................ 54 74 50 69 / 70 70 80 10 Santa Fe........................ 54 68 51 62 / 70 60 70 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 71 50 65 / 70 60 70 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 76 56 67 / 60 30 50 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 77 54 70 / 60 30 40 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 80 53 72 / 50 30 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 77 54 70 / 60 30 40 5 Belen........................... 56 79 50 73 / 40 10 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 57 79 53 70 / 70 40 50 5 Bosque Farms.................... 55 79 50 72 / 50 20 30 5 Corrales........................ 57 79 53 71 / 60 40 40 5 Los Lunas....................... 56 79 51 72 / 50 20 20 0 Placitas........................ 55 75 52 65 / 70 40 50 5 Rio Rancho...................... 57 77 53 70 / 60 40 40 5 Socorro......................... 58 80 52 76 / 50 5 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 71 49 62 / 70 40 50 5 Tijeras......................... 54 72 50 64 / 70 40 50 5 Edgewood........................ 50 73 48 65 / 60 40 50 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 74 47 67 / 60 30 40 5 Clines Corners.................. 48 66 48 65 / 60 30 40 5 Mountainair..................... 50 72 49 66 / 60 20 30 5 Gran Quivira.................... 49 72 49 67 / 60 10 30 5 Carrizozo....................... 55 77 54 73 / 40 10 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 50 71 50 66 / 20 20 10 10 Capulin......................... 49 64 50 67 / 30 10 20 5 Raton........................... 51 67 50 70 / 50 10 30 5 Springer........................ 52 68 52 72 / 50 20 30 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 63 49 66 / 70 50 60 10 Clayton......................... 54 74 55 75 / 10 0 5 5 Roy............................. 52 67 52 70 / 40 20 30 10 Conchas......................... 55 76 56 78 / 40 20 30 10 Santa Rosa...................... 52 70 54 74 / 40 20 30 10 Tucumcari....................... 53 77 55 79 / 10 5 10 10 Clovis.......................... 54 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 53 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 55 76 57 79 / 30 5 10 10 Roswell......................... 58 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 52 77 52 80 / 10 10 5 10 Elk............................. 49 77 51 77 / 10 10 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ223-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...52