272
FXUS65 KABQ 150540 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1040 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

 - Southwest wind gusts of 35-45 mph could create elevated to
   locally critical fire weather conditions in far western NM on
   Friday afternoon.

 - Wetter and cooler weather is likely Sunday and Monday. Snow
   accumulations will be confined to locations 9,000 feet and
   higher. There is a low risk of flooding in southeastern NM.

 - A colder winter system may impact the area Tuesday. Minor snow
   accumulations are possible down to valley floors. Blowing snow
   is also possible in the northeast behind a backdoor front.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Fair weather will continue through Saturday before the next fall
system approaches from the Desert Southwest on Sunday. Rain chances
will increase northeastward throughout Sunday afternoon and into
Monday as the system moves across southern New Mexico. Snow will be
limited to the higher elevations, so rain is the main concern for
this system, particularly for SE NM. After Monday, the forecast
becomes much more uncertain. Another winter system could bring
colder temperatures and snowfall to much of New Mexico for the
middle of the week, but confidence at this time low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 339 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Weak ridging over NM today will translate eastward tonight and
southwest flow will be the rule through Friday night as a storm
system shifts toward the Great Basin. H7 winds will increase across
western NM on Friday to between 35 and 45kt. With modest mixing
expected, it looks like some of these momentum will mix to the
surface. Attm, it looks like areas around Gallup and the Chuska
Mountains will be some of the windiest spots in the state, but
should be just shy of advisory criteria. Otherwise, another day of
above normal warmth is expected Friday, sans where snow cover
remains. Most areas will be 3 to 10 degrees above normal. Winds will
decrease Friday night, though will remain breezy to locally windy
across ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Aside from breezy SW winds on Saturday, it will be
another pleasant day for the Land of Enchantment. However, a digging
trough over Nevada will form a cut off low over Baja California. The
system will approach New Mexico from the SW on Sunday with
precipitation chances spreading from southwest to northeast through
the day on Sunday and into Monday. A 120 kt upper level jet over NM
will not only bring in some Pacific moisture, but it also looks to
enhance precipitation chances as it aids in diffluence aloft.
Isentropic analysis shows that some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
also looks to come into play and enhance rain amounts for
southeastern New Mexico. Guidance does hint at some increased
instability mainly over Texas, so some thunderstorms and brief
periods of localized heavier rainfall is possible for southeastern
New Mexico on Sunday evening. With snow levels mostly above 7000
feet, snow will be confined to the higher elevations. Therefore, the
main threat for this system is the rain in over southeastern NM. QPF
totals trended down a bit once again, but localized areas could
still see just over an 1 inch.

The system will move across New Mexico pretty quickly on Monday with
precipitation ending by late afternoon in NE NM. Strong mid level
winds on Monday should mix down to the surface by the afternoon, so
bumped up winds a bit across eastern New Mexico closer to upper end
guidance. High uncertainty in the forecast after Monday as models
struggle to find a solution in the next weather pattern. Cluster
analysis indicates two solutions that could bring vastly different
weather outcomes. European solutions want to bring in another winter
system that dives down into NM by midweek. This scenario would bring
in much colder temperatures and increase snowfall for central and
northern NM. The GFS  does bring in a brief trough and some lighter
precipitation for northern NM, but effects are more muted than the
Euro. Other solutions, like the Canadian deterministic forecast,
wants to bring in a ridge which would increase temperatures and keep
conditions dry. In any case, the current forecast does include a
chance of snow for the middle of the week as well as below average
temperatures, but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. A layer of thin
high clouds will cross from the west on Friday. Southwest winds
will also become gusty on Friday, especially west of the
continental divide where gusts may reach up to 45 KT from the
Chuska Mountains southward. As southwest flow aloft strengthens
late tonight through Friday morning, there will be low level wind
shear mainly over west central and southwest parts of the
forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Southwesterly winds will increase on Friday across western NM. With
RH values likely to plummet below 15 percent across western NM as
well, there should be a 1 to 3 hour period during the mid afternoon
hours where critical fire weather conditions occur from Gallup to
Quemado. Will forego a Fire Weather Watch attm due to limited
spatial and temporal coverage.

Southwest breezes will persist on Saturday, mainly across eastern
NM, but otherwise, a quiet day is in store. However, a storm system
diving southward over SoCal will continue it`s trek into Old Mexico
on Sunday. Subtropical moisture will be ushered into NM ahead of the
system allowing for widespread rain and high elevation snow across
mainly central and eastern NM. Liquid precipitation totals may
exceed one inch in some eastern NM locales. This system will quickly
exit northeast NM on Monday, then a short break in precipitation is
in store before the next system potentially impacts NM on Tuesday.
However, westerly winds will increase on Monday, especially across
east central NM where gusts could top 40 mph. There is high
uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the Tuesday system.
Some models suggest little to no precipitation with a trough
glancing northern NM, while others show a significant winter storm.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  64  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  22  61  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  26  57  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  17  65  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  28  62  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  20  65  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  28  62  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  34  65  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  28  62  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  21  65  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  31  69  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  55  22  43 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  34  55  33  48 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  30  59  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  25  53  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  17  47  24  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  10  51  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  19  56  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  25  57  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  28  62  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  58  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  28  60  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  34  63  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  35  65  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  30  66  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  30  64  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  28  68  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  30  64  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  26  67  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  30  65  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  25  67  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  32  62  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  33  63  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  33  71  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  34  58  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  35  61  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  33  60  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  19  62  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  32  59  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  33  63  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  31  63  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  38  68  45  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  64  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  25  52  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  22  56  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  20  54  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  31  55  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  32  58  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  57  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  33  70  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  35  69  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  34  70  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  35  73  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  33  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  31  68  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  35  76  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  39  76  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  38  74  44  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...44