189
FXUS65 KABQ 281734 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1034 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1028 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

- Milder and above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday.

- A storm system will strengthen wind speeds across western and
  parts of central NM Saturday before producing some light snow
  showers across the northern mountains Sunday morning. Very
  strong west winds across central and eastern NM behind and south
  of the system Sunday afternoon.

- Another Pacific storm brings gusty southwest winds areawide on
  Monday followed by very strong west and northwest winds on
  Tuesday. Widespread blowing dust possible across lower
  elevations on Tuesday. Low chance for some light rain and high
  elevation snow showers across far northern NM on Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Milder Friday and Saturday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal come Saturday. Gusty south to southwest winds across south
central and southwest NM ahead of an upper low over southern
California and Arizona. The upper low moves across northern NM
Sunday morning bringing some very light snow showers to the northern
mountains. Clearing skies with gusty to very strong northwest winds
Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds will be along the east slopes
of the central mountain chain and adjacent northeast and east
central highlands and plains where gusts of 45 to 60 mph will be
possible. More strong southwest winds areawide on Monday ahead of a
new and potent Pacific storm. Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph possible.
Colder with very strong west and northwest winds on Tuesday as the
system moves through. Wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph possible across
much of eastern NM. Blowing dust is likely for many lower elevation
locations given the preceding dry ground conditions. Some light snow
possible across the northern mountains late Monday through midday
Tuesday. A band of rain and snow also possible across far northeast
NM Tuesday afternoon and evening on the backside of the system.
Milder temperatures with much lighter winds next Wednesday behind
the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

At 00Z, a weak upper low was analyzed over Phoenix at near 569dam at
500mb and is forecast to continue to fill today as it moves slowly
eastward and results in some added cloud cover across southern
portions of NM. Otherwise, today will be pleasant with plenty of
sunshine, mostly light winds and above normal temperatures. A
shortwave ridge will amplify over the region tonight and then shift
east over NM on Saturday ahead of a more notable upper level low
approaching from over the Desert SW. Winds in the lower portions of
the boundary layer will respond to the approaching upper low by
increasing out of the south Saturday afternoon, resulting in breezy
to locally windy conditions. Temperatures will continue a warming
trend most areas on Saturday, with highs forecast 10-15 degrees
above normal across central and western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Deterministic and ensemble guidance tonight seems to be honing in on
the northern scenario for this weekend`s upper low. The upper low
will enter northwest NM around sunrise Sunday quickly moving west to
over the northeast corner of the state by midday Sunday. Despite
decent return flow across eastern NM Saturday night into Sunday
morning, this track of the low will keep most of the state dry with
just some sprinkles and light mountain snow across northwest and
north central NM Sunday morning. Gusty westerly flow quickly
develops in it`s wake for most areas come midday Sunday. The
strongest west winds will be across northeast and east central NM
and the east slopes of the central mountain chain, just south of the
upper low circulation. Guidance from both the MAV and MET show Wind
Advisory level winds across the northeast and central highlands and
northeast and east central plains Sunday afternoon. High wind gusts
cannot be ruled out across the central highlands, including Clines
Corners and Vaughn. Temperatures on Sunday will cool down slightly
across central and western NM, but still be 5 to 10 degrees above
average.

After a brief break from shortwave ridging on Sunday night,
southwest winds ramp areawide on Monday ahead of Pacific upper low
moving over the Great Basin. 500 mb winds of 50 to 60 kts and 700 mb
winds of 25 to 35 knots will result in breezy to locally windy
conditions. Critical fire weather will be possible for most lower
elevations as a mid level dry slot moves over the state. Winds
remain gusty, especially across ridgetops, Monday evening and
overnight Monday as the Pacific front sweeps through the state south
of the upper low circulation moving east over the Colorado Rockies.
Upslope westerly flow and mid level moisture under the upper low
circulation will allow snow showers to develop across the northern
mountains Tuesday morning and afternoon. However, the bigger story
for most locations will be the very strong west and northwest winds
due to a nearly stacked low pressure circulation ejecting east over
the central and southern High Plains. 700 mb winds of 40 to 55 kts
and 500 mb winds of 50 to 60 kts will be over the state south of the
upper low circulation with daytime mixing and subsidence behind the
Pacific front mixing these very strong winds aloft down to the
surface. Wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph are possible across much of
eastern NM during the late morning and afternoon hours with wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph across western and central NM. The wind
combined with dry ground conditions will result in areas to
widespread blowing dust for most lower elevations. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than Monday behind the
Pacific front. An area of rain and snow could develop across far
northeast NM due to a TROWAL feature on the backside of the upper
low circulation over the central and southern Great Plains. West and
northwest winds relax Tuesday evening and night as the upper low
exits northeast towards the Great Lakes. Shortwave ridging moves
overhead on Wednesday resulting in milder temperatures, especially
across western and central NM, along with much lighter winds.
Another Pacific storm system approaches the state late in the work
week, but there are timing differences from model guidance at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail around the region
through the TAF period. A weak, closed Low over AZ will eject
across New Mexico today, with very little to no aviation impacts.
Winds overnight will be mainly terrain-dominated and there is low
to moderate confidence in another gusty drainage wind at KSAF
during the morning hours. Skies will be mostly clear outside of a
few high clouds in the southern half of the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Warm and dry conditions with mostly light winds will prevail today,
but an upper level low will approach from over the Desert SW on
Saturday and then move overhead on Sunday. The result will be
increasing winds on Saturday with elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions across far western NM. Stronger winds are
forecast on Sunday as the upper low moves over the region, but
slightly higher humidity will limit critical fire weather conditions
across northern portions of the area. However, critical fire weather
conditions are likely across the east central plains and possibly
southern portions of the middle RGV on Sunday. A more significant
critical fire weather pattern is setting up for Mon/Tue when strong
winds develop as a potent upper level trough sweeps east across the
region. Monday will likely be the more widespread critical day with
warm and unstable conditions ahead of an approaching Pacific cold
front, forecast to push through Monday evening. Strong winds will
continue behind the ejecting trough on Tuesday, but cooler
conditions and a slight bump in humidity may limit critical fire
weather conditions to southern portions of the area. An upper
level ridge will follow and bring warmer conditions with much less
wind on Wednesday, but another critical fire weather event may be
setting up by the end of next week involving another potent upper
level trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  26  69  35 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  60  20  64  24 /   0   0   0  20
Cuba............................  59  24  62  28 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  63  16  69  23 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  60  28  66  28 /   0   0   5  20
Grants..........................  63  19  67  24 /   0   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  61  27  66  27 /   0   0   5  10
Magdalena.......................  60  35  66  35 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  59  30  65  30 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  64  21  69  22 /   0   0   5  10
Glenwood........................  68  27  74  28 /   0   0   5  10
Chama...........................  55  21  58  25 /   0   0   0  20
Los Alamos......................  59  34  61  36 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  61  27  62  34 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  58  24  60  33 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  49  19  52  28 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  55  12  57  25 /   0   0   0  20
Taos............................  61  19  64  27 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  60  22  62  28 /   0   0   0  20
Espanola........................  65  25  68  32 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  60  31  63  37 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  63  27  65  35 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  40  67  42 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  35  69  39 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  32  71  37 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  34  69  38 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  67  28  72  33 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  66  31  70  37 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  67  27  71  34 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  66  31  70  38 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  66  27  71  35 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  63  35  66  39 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  33  69  38 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  68  36  73  38 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  32  63  35 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  61  33  65  36 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  62  29  66  32 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  20  67  27 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  60  27  62  32 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  61  28  66  34 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  62  28  66  35 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  64  37  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  59  36  63  38 /   5   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  60  26  62  32 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  64  22  64  28 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  67  22  66  28 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  63  24  63  31 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  67  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  66  27  63  35 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  71  29  70  37 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  70  30  69  37 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  71  28  70  39 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  70  34  71  40 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  70  32  72  41 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  72  30  71  37 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  72  37  74  43 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  68  35  69  38 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  66  36  69  39 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16