246
FXUS65 KABQ 020750
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
150 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

- Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New
  Mexico today and Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of
  showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will
  be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk
  of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over recent
  burn scars.

- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise again on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The upper level pattern is defined by an upstream low moving
inland over CA while a weak inverted trough continues to fizzle
and lose definition as it creeps northward into NM. The latter
will not produce much in the way of strong large scale ascent, but
it has produced increased cloud cover and periodic light shower
activity that is currently over the southeastern quadrant of NM
which will likely persist. This shield of cloud cover will keep
forecast uncertainty elevated for this area, as instability may be
too low to support much in the way of deep, moist convection and
instead more in the way of weaker showers or even stratiform rain.
As you get farther west towards the Sacramentos (on the projected
western edge of the cloud shield), the easterly upslope flow is
projected to start veering more southeasterly into the early
afternoon. A few CAMs (FV3, HRRR, and RRFS) are showing direct
hits by convective cells on the Lincoln county burn scars by early
afternoon. Despite the conditional uncertainty of instability
listed above, there seems to be enough signals pointing toward
higher risk of burn scar flooding, so a Flash Flood Watch will be
issued for the Sacramento complex for today. Elsewhere over the
county warning area, there is a subtle gradient of drier air and
lower PWATs with the northwestern third of NM showing lower values
around 0.7 to 0.9 inch with values trending higher southeastward
over 1.0 to 1.6 inches (highest in southeast NM). This gradient
stretching from southwestern NM to north central and northeastern
areas may be a trigger for a few storms, but overall instability
is projected to be low in these areas with CAPE generally staying
below 500 J/kg without much in the way of significant other
triggers. Temperature guidance may have trended up a bit (except
the southeasternmost zones) for this afternoon, but most areas
will remain 5 to 15 degrees below normal.

Into tonight, the CA low will be shifting eastward as an open
shortwave with a preceding wave making its way near the NM-AZ
border after midnight. This looks to induce modest warm air
advection with winds aloft turning southerly ahead of the wave,
and most models indicate nocturnal shower and isolated storm
activity persisting tonight, mainly over southern zones. This
activity will likely even survive into the mid to late morning
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the initial preceding shortwave
will be moving into central to north central NM with the stronger
lagging perturbation moving into northern AZ. This will increase
forcing with better instability developing between the Continental
Divide and the central mountain chain of NM Thursday afternoon.
This should yield a more productive crop of deep moist convection
with storms producing heavier rainfall rates. Storm motions could
trend up for a few cells ahead of the shortwave, but an isolated
heavy rainfall threat will be present with the central mountain
chain potentially observing repetitive training of cells for a
couple to a few hours. Temperatures would stay below normal
Thursday. By Thursday evening, storms would mostly shift into the
eastern plains with much of the activity ending by midnight as
drier air sweeps in behind the passing shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The Fourth of July holiday will turn much drier, as PWATs will
have plummeted behind the Pacific shortwave Thursday night into
Friday morning. Any cells that might struggle to develop would
most likely be over the northern Sangres or the southwestern
mountains, but this activity would be very high-based, likely only
producing virga and gusty winds. Temperatures will also trend
hotter on the Fourth with many locations reaching the 90`s. Mostly
dry conditions will prevail into Saturday as the monsoon high re-
establishes its residence over NM. Dry air will remain entrenched
over much of the state, but forecast models have retained
excellent continuity, bringing in a moist backdoor front to
northeastern areas that will help storms initiate in this corner
of the state. The boundary would progress southwestward into
Sunday morning, distributing low layer moisture farther into the
interior of NM. This will boost convective chances for Sunday,
mainly along and east of the central mountain chain, but diffuse
subtropical moisture will also begin sneaking northward beneath
the monsoon high. PWATs will trend upward into Monday, holding
into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The deepest moisture
(PWATs greater than 1.0 inch) would tend to stay over the southern
and eastern tiers of NM, but even northwestern areas look to
remain above 0.75 inch PWAT. This should yield a fairly
climatological storm distribution with scattered cells favoring
the southwestern and northern mountains each day Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Low stratus clouds with MVFR (less than 3,000 ft) to IFR (less
than 1,000 ft) ceilings will be the primary aviation concern
through the morning hours, mainly over southeastern New Mexico
and also a few central to east central areas. A few brief light to
moderate showers will also be found in these areas through the
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop more into the
afternoon, particularly over the southwestern and south central
mountains where heavier downpours, gusty downburst winds, and
small hail will be observed briefly. While much of the storm
activity will die off this evening, a few persistent showers will
keep redeveloping tonight, generally focused in the southern half
of New Mexico. Batches of low MVFR to IFR ceilings will accompany
this shower activity in southern areas tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Monsoon moisture will lead to excellent humidity recovery through
dawn today. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
attempt to develop this afternoon into the evening, but some may
struggle. The highest confidence area for soaking rainfall will be
in the southwestern mountains with wetting rain footprints
turning more spotty farther northeastward. Persistent showers
tonight in southern zones and lingering moisture will bring
another morning of excellent humidity recovery on Thursday. This
will be followed by more vigorous thunderstorms, concentrating
between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain
Thursday afternoon before moving into eastern NM during the
evening. The monsoon will take a brief hiatus on the Fourth of
July with minimal storm activity both Friday and Saturday.
Humidity will bottom out below 15 percent in much of western and
central NM both Friday and Saturday. The exception for storms will
be in northeastern NM Saturday as moisture recharges via a
backdoor front. The moisture will progress over more of eastern NM
into Sunday with storms increasing again. A more typical monsoon
pattern will then set up Monday through Wednesday of next week
with daily rounds of scattered storms, mainly over the
southwestern and northern mountains with lesser activity in
between.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  63  87  60 /  10  40  30  20
Dulce...........................  87  49  83  46 /  30  40  50  20
Cuba............................  83  55  81  54 /  30  50  50  30
Gallup..........................  85  53  82  49 /  50  50  40  20
El Morro........................  81  54  78  52 /  50  50  60  20
Grants..........................  84  54  81  52 /  40  50  60  30
Quemado.........................  82  57  79  55 /  60  60  50  20
Magdalena.......................  78  60  79  60 /  40  50  60  30
Datil...........................  78  55  76  55 /  60  60  60  30
Reserve.........................  86  54  83  50 /  70  60  50  20
Glenwood........................  89  57  88  56 /  70  60  50  20
Chama...........................  80  46  76  45 /  30  40  50  30
Los Alamos......................  79  59  78  58 /  40  40  60  40
Pecos...........................  77  56  78  55 /  50  50  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  81  54  80  52 /  30  30  60  30
Red River.......................  73  45  70  45 /  30  30  60  40
Angel Fire......................  75  41  73  42 /  40  30  60  30
Taos............................  82  53  81  50 /  30  30  60  30
Mora............................  75  48  75  49 /  40  40  60  40
Espanola........................  87  60  86  58 /  30  30  60  40
Santa Fe........................  80  59  81  58 /  40  50  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  83  59  84  58 /  40  40  60  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  66  87  65 /  40  50  60  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  65  88  64 /  30  50  50  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  65  91  63 /  30  40  40  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  65  88  65 /  30  40  50  30
Belen...........................  88  64  88  62 /  30  40  40  30
Bernalillo......................  89  64  90  63 /  30  40  50  30
Bosque Farms....................  88  63  90  61 /  30  40  50  30
Corrales........................  90  65  91  64 /  30  40  50  30
Los Lunas.......................  88  64  89  63 /  30  40  50  30
Placitas........................  84  63  85  63 /  40  50  50  30
Rio Rancho......................  88  64  89  64 /  30  40  50  30
Socorro.........................  89  66  89  65 /  40  50  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  57  80  57 /  40  50  60  40
Tijeras.........................  81  59  82  59 /  40  50  60  40
Edgewood........................  81  55  81  55 /  50  50  60  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  54  82  53 /  50  50  60  40
Clines Corners..................  74  55  75  55 /  50  50  60  50
Mountainair.....................  78  56  80  55 /  50  50  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  77  57  79  55 /  60  50  60  40
Carrizozo.......................  78  61  81  61 /  70  60  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  70  54  72  57 /  70  60  70  40
Capulin.........................  77  54  77  54 /  20  30  50  40
Raton...........................  81  55  81  53 /  20  20  50  30
Springer........................  82  57  82  55 /  30  30  50  40
Las Vegas.......................  76  54  78  54 /  40  40  60  40
Clayton.........................  82  60  82  62 /  20  20  30  40
Roy.............................  78  59  78  59 /  30  40  50  40
Conchas.........................  83  64  85  64 /  40  50  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  77  62  80  62 /  50  50  50  50
Tucumcari.......................  80  62  82  64 /  40  50  40  50
Clovis..........................  78  64  81  65 /  60  50  40  50
Portales........................  78  63  83  65 /  60  50  40  50
Fort Sumner.....................  80  64  82  64 /  50  50  50  50
Roswell.........................  79  67  83  67 /  60  60  50  40
Picacho.........................  75  61  78  61 /  70  60  60  40
Elk.............................  73  57  78  58 /  70  60  60  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52