Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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401 FXUS65 KABQ 061155 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 555 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 A backdoor cold front sliding down the plains this morning will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain by the noon hour. Breezy conditions are expected both across northeast New Mexico and below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. Cooler temperatures are expected today, especially so across eastern New Mexico. Temperatures will rebound on Monday and will remain above normal through the work week. Outside of a few sprinkles on Wednesday and Thursday, it also looks dry through Friday. A storm system may bring unsettled weather for next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 High temperatures will fall around 4 to 18 degrees over east central and northeast areas today compared to Saturday`s readings, thanks to a gusty backdoor cold front that will continue to move through this morning. The front will begin pushing through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley from Santa Fe southward from late morning until mid evening. With this package, we forecast wind speeds a few mph over guidance, since models have consistently under forecast the strength of gap winds this fall. In addition, the temperature and pressure gradients look favorable for gusty gap winds due to a 1020 mb high sinking southward over the Great Plains and a high pressure system over AZ bringing another round of near record warmth to western NM. Backdoor fronts like this are notorious for arriving sooner than forecast, and for producing stronger winds than forecast, so the day shift will need to monitor the evolving weather pattern closely. On Monday, high temperatures will rebound over eastern areas, while readings trend a few degrees cooler further west as the ridge of high pressure over AZ begins to weaken. High temperatures today and Monday will vary around 4 to 12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, except for readings near the 30-year average over east central and northeast areas this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 587 dam ridge over AZ will persist Monday evening. Dry conditions with light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to excellent radiational cooling. Valley locales, especially mountain valleys, will be quite cold overnight. Areas around Gallup may drop to the freezing mark for the first time this season. Quiet conditions expected Tuesday. The ridge axis will shift over the NM/AZ border, though weaken a dam or so. Overall, not much change from Monday though cloud cover will increase in the afternoon as compared to Monday. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. On Wednesday, a weak Pacific low will move east over the northern Baja while the ridge axis, as ill-defined as it will be, moves squarely over NM. This low will allow for a modest uptick in mid to upper level moisture (btw H5 and H6) over NM. Couldn`t rule out a few sprinkles over the high terrain, and given the dry boundary layer, gusty winds will likely accompany any virga or sprinkles. Upper level ridging may strengthen slightly on Thursday. Some mid level moisture will be lingering so some virga and/or sprinkles will be possible over the high terrain once again. Quiet conditions on tap for Friday, though a weak disturbance rounding the upper high will send a weak boundary into NE NM. Little, if any, difference in temperatures will be noted. Uncertainty remains high for next weekend. A stronger Pacific trough will move over the western CONUS late Friday. Thereafter, there remains strong disagreement among the models as to how this feature will evolve as it shifts eastward. One solution is for the trough to move ashore over OR, shift eastward toward the Rockies, before diving southward over CO and NM. This solution would bring a strong backdoor front to NM on Sunday as well as some precipitation over at least northern NM. Another solution is for the trough to shift eastward over the Great Basin then become cut off over AZ. This solution would keep temps somewhat warmer (but cooler than it`s been), and may bring some light precip to western NM. The bottom line is that temperatures should be on the downtrend for next weekend, and the weather may be a bit unsettled. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 A gusty backdoor cold front will continue to progress southwestward through eastern areas this morning. Models bring the front into the central valley with a gusty gap wind front Santa Fe southward during late morning, then prolong it until early evening. With this TAF package, we went above guidance on the east wind speed at KABQ because models have been notoriously under forecasting gap wind speeds there for months now, and especially this fall. Also, fairly significant temperature and pressure gradients are forecast to set up across the central mountain chain with a 1020 mb surface high sliding southward over the Great Plains and an unseasonably strong high pressure system aloft over AZ. High temperatures across northeast and east central parts of the forecast area will cool closer to 1991-2020 averages today, but readings around 9-13 degrees above the averages west of the central mountain chain will result in another afternoon of unusually high density altitude there for this time of year. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 A ridge of high pressure will persist over the Desert Southwest through Friday with high temperatures several degrees above 1991- 2020 averages each day. An exception will be readings near 30-year averages over east central and northeast areas today, due to a gusty backdoor cold front that will finish crossing eastern areas this morning. The front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain from mid day through early evening with east wind gusts up to 30 mph below canyons opening into the central valley from Santa Fe southward. One concern over the week ahead will be critically low minimum humidities at lower elevations mainly west of the central mountain chain today through Tuesday, then over parts of the east as well during the latter half of the work week. Meanwhile, there may be some gusty virga showers in some mountain locations each afternoon around mid week. Models are beginning to resolve an upper level trough or upper level low pressure system that may approach the fire weather forecast area from the northwest with increasing humidities and precipitation chances starting Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 83 48 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 35 80 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 80 45 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 83 36 82 32 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 79 46 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 82 40 82 34 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 80 46 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 49 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 78 45 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 87 43 85 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 92 53 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 78 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 76 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 45 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 67 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 71 25 70 22 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 80 39 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 73 38 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 86 44 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 80 51 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 46 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 55 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 48 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 43 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 48 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 43 85 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 88 44 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 40 85 43 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 88 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 44 85 44 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 84 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 86 48 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 51 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 80 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 36 81 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 78 43 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 43 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 84 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 46 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 69 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 77 41 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 77 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 43 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 73 48 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 73 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 80 47 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 78 45 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 47 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 84 53 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 86 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 83 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 91 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 83 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...44