Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
108 FXUS65 KABQ 041126 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - There is high confidence in widespread moderate to major heat risk impacts, particularly Tuesday through Friday, which may cause health issues for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas will approach near record to record highs. - Elevated fire weather conditions will be favored over western and central New Mexico again for today. - Slim chances for some gusty winds and dry lightning strikes across the western and northern high terrain from stray to isolated virga showers and dry thunderstorms by the middle to latter half of the work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1242 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 An MCS across the southern Great Plains is pushing a weak backdoor front through eastern NM this morning with some higher low level moisture in the wake of the front. This higher low level moisture is resulting in the development of some scattered low clouds across portions of northeast NM with more scattered low clouds possible across east central NM around sunrise this morning These scattered low clouds will burn off shortly thereafter as temperatures heat up. The bigger story on Monday will be the upper level monsoon high currently across far southeast AZ building and expanding northeast into the state with max 500 mb heights increasing from 594 to 596 dam. This will result in above average temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across most lower elevations with low 100s across the lower RGV and southeast plains. Deep mixing will tap into some stronger westerly winds on the northern periphery of the high resulting in some breezy conditions across the Four Corners areas. This along with single digits relative humidity values will result in elevated fire weather conditions. Meanwhile with some southeast surface flow and modest moisture, a few gusty afternoon virga showers cannot be ruled out along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Finally, northwest flow around the upper high and higher low level moisture from the southeast surface flow could result in a stray strong to severe storm to clip far northeast Union County during the mid evening hours. A marginal risk for severe storms have been included for this potential, but confidence in this materializing is low. Heading into Tuesday, the upper level monsoon high strengthens even more to 599 dam (max percentile for early August) with the centroid across Catron and Socorro County. This will allow temperatures to heat up a little more across western and central NM with a notable increase of 5 to 10 degrees across eastern NM due to surface winds having more of a westerly component. Readings in the mid to upper 90s will be common across lower elevations of northern and western NM with upper 90s to low 100s across the middle and lower RGV and all of the eastern plains. Roswell will be one of the hottest locations in the state with a forecasted high of 105. A moderate risk for heat related illnesses will exist across much of the state with a major risk for the middle and lower RGV and southeast plains. This risk along with a moderate probability of valley locations in the ABQ Metro reaching 100 and Roswell reaching 105, will likely result in the first day of an expected string of Heat Advisories for these respected zones. Finally, guidance is showing the high picking up some limited mid level moisture on its western periphery resulting in the development of some stray virga showers and potentially dry thunderstorms across the Gila Mountains during the afternoon. Main risk from this activity will be some gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning strikes. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1242 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The intense heat will continue to be the main story Wednesday through Friday as the upper level monsoon high remains smack dab over the middle of the state with max 500 mb values of 599 to 600 dam Wednesday and Thursday, weakening slightly to 597 dam on Friday as a trough moves across the northern Rockies. Near record to record high temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s across lower elevations will continue as a result. Heat advisories will likely be needed for the ABQ Metro and much of east central and southeast NM due to temperatures around 100 and 105 degrees, respectively and a major risk for heat related illnesses. A widespread moderate risk for heat related illnesses will continue for other areas of the state. Some mid level moisture wrapping around the western and northern periphery of the high will result in some stray to isolated virga showers and dry thunderstorms across the western and northern mountains and adjacent highlands during the afternoon and early evening hours. Little, if any, wetting precipitation is expected with gusty and erratic winds and dry lightning being the main threats. Come the weekend, the aforementioned trough moves east across the northern Great Plains. This allows the monsoon high to weaken further back down to 594 dam at 500 mb centering over southeast AZ and southwest NM. In terms of sensible weather changes, this will help to slightly increase shower and thunderstorm coverage across the higher terrain and adjacent highlands and plains and allow some higher moisture to move into eastern NM behind a backdoor front. With this, temperatures cool down closer to average as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Low clouds, with some patchy fog at KLVS, has developed across the northeast and central highlands from just south of KTAD to Corona. MVFR to LIFR conditions from these low clouds and patchy fog will burn off at around 15Z. Some breezy west winds across western NM sites during the afternoon along with a low chance for some virga showers and gusty and erratic wind gusts along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Single digit humidities along and west of the central mountain chain for much of the day along with some breezy west winds during the afternoon will result in some elevated fire weather conditions with this threat focused mainly across the Four Corners region. A weak backdoor front is pushing higher low level moisture across eastern NM which will result in higher minimum relative humidity values in the upper teens to low 30s this afternoon. Thereafter, the main monsoon high repositions directly over the state and strengthens to record values for early August Tuesday through Friday. Some modest moisture will bring virga showers and an isolated dry thunderstorm favoring western and northern NM each afternoon beginning Wednesday. The main hazards from this activity will be stray and erratic gusty winds and dry lightning strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 91 47 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 90 56 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 92 52 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 88 56 89 57 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 93 54 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 89 57 90 60 / 0 0 10 5 Magdalena....................... 92 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 89 57 89 59 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 96 54 97 56 / 0 0 10 0 Glenwood........................ 100 61 101 62 / 0 0 5 0 Chama........................... 84 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 86 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 76 48 78 50 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 39 81 42 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 88 50 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 84 50 86 54 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 94 57 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 88 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 58 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 69 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 65 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 63 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 65 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 99 60 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 63 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 60 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 63 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 98 61 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 93 64 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 64 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 100 65 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 90 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 91 54 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 51 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 86 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 90 58 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 89 58 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 94 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 87 59 88 62 / 5 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 82 55 90 57 / 10 5 0 0 Raton........................... 87 53 94 54 / 10 5 0 0 Springer........................ 89 53 95 54 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 86 53 91 57 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 88 62 97 65 / 10 10 0 0 Roy............................. 85 58 94 59 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 92 63 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 61 100 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 90 63 102 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 95 66 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 96 66 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 66 102 67 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 101 70 105 70 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 62 98 65 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 92 61 94 63 / 5 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71