Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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690 FXUS65 KABQ 080022 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 443 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 - Strong winds will begin to subside around sunset & continue to weaken through the evening. Critical fire conditions will also ease as these winds weaken. - A couple more days of above average temperatures for western and central NM this weekend, while eastern NM begins to cool on Sunday. - Colder, more February like, temperatures return to eastern NM and eventually central and western NM early to mid next week. Snow is also possible across northern areas, with potential for accumulations in the northern mountains. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 Critical fire weather conditions will continue until sunset, as winds begin to subside throughout the evening. Winds will be much lighter on Saturday, with temperatures still well above average throughout the state. A backdoor cold front will begin to intrude into northeast New Mexico on Saturday afternoon, pushing through a good chunk of eastern New Mexico by Sunday morning and cooling down temperatures to near normal. A series of storm systems and backdoor fronts will cool temperatures gradually throughout the week, with higher precipitation chances for northern New Mexico. The latter half of the week is trending wetter, with larger snow accumulations for the norther mountains. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 319 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 Peak wind gusts have ranged from 45 to 65 mph over northeast and east-central NM today. Surface humidity has fallen below 10% in many areas along with temps 15 to 25F above normal. Folks are strongly encouraged to practice fire safety to avoid creating sparks that may lead to a wildfire. Cross sections thru the Sangre de Cristo Mts indicate the mt waves partially responsible for the strong winds today will weaken this evening while 700-500mb winds decrease and weak mid level cold advection takes place. The cold front that was draped over northeast NM early this morning has retreated to the northeast but will make a return tonight as surface high pressure builds south down the Front Range. Min temps will trend cooler over eastern NM tonight as a result. There will be a strong temperature gradient where the front becomes stationary, which is most likely to occur around the Pecos River. The area of highest min temp standard deviation on the 13Z NBM stretches from near Las Vegas to Santa Rosa and Melrose. This front will also complicate max temps Saturday depending on how far it retreats back to the east. The rest of central and western NM will see similar min temps tonight and max temps Saturday compared to the past several days. Winds overall will be much lighter areawide on Saturday. The cold front is very likely to make a farther push westward Saturday night. Confidence on its eventual position is higher as a narrower strip of higher min temp standard deviation is present along the central highlands. Low level moisture advecting north and west in the wake of the front will help saturate the boundary layer over southeast NM before sunrise Sunday. Very low clouds and/or patchy fog is possible for Roosevelt, Curry, and Chaves counties depending on how far west the moist, low level return flow can make it. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 A secondary push of the backdoor cold front will enter through eastern New Mexico on Sunday night which will cool temperatures to near or below average for this time of year along the eastern plains. Southerly upslope flow near southern New Mexico will bring in some low level Gulf moisture into the region and once again some low clouds and patchy fog may be possible for southeastern counties during the early morning hours when relative humidity looks to be highest. Throughout the rest of the day, high clouds will stream in from the west, with temperatures relatively pleasant for most of the state. Highs will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for western and central New Mexico. An upper level troughing pattern will dominate the weather for the next week, with a series of embedded shortwave disturbances increasing chances of precipitation and backdoor cold fronts cooling down temperatures. Pressure heights begin to drop on Monday as the first shallow shortwave begins to traverse the intermountain west. The northern mountains will begin to see some precipitation in the afternoon, expanding slightly south and west throughout the evening. Recent guidance has actually trended back on precipitation for the Monday to Tuesday period, so highest confidence for any minor winter impacts will be limited to mountain areas along the CO-NM border. The rest of the state can expect some breeziness, particularly along the higher terrain in SW NM. As the next deeper shortwave approaches the region on Tuesday afternoon, another backdoor will push through eastern New Mexico. Winds will converge along the central mountain chain, with upslope flow looking to squeeze out another round of light snowfall for northern areas between Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures cool down significantly on Wednesday with highs about 5 to 10 degrees below normal throughout the state. Models are hinting at a 1000mb lee side surface low developing in northeast New Mexico, as a result some sub-advisory winds look to affect large swaths of the state on Wednesday afternoon. Higher terrain in southern parts of the state could see stronger gusts in association with higher speed maxes aloft during this time. A lull in the weather on Thursday will see skies clear a little bit and temperatures rise back to near normal. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement for showing longwave troughing over the western half of CONUS to begin the weekend. The polar jet looks to dig deep into the Desert Southwest and bring in a colder arctic airmass. This system could also bring more Pacific moisture, which would lead to more widespread precipitation spreading from west to east starting on Friday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 443 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 Strong southwest winds will wane this evening across most areas, though areas along and just downstream of the Central Mountain Chain will continue to have gusts near 25 or 30kt through the overnight period, including at KLVS. Winds just off the deck will remain very strong, and LLWS is expected across all areas just east of the Central Mountain Chain through the overnight period. Around 12Z Sat, a backdoor cold front will press into northeast NM and will continue to slide south and west through mid afternoon before slowing its progress. Easterly gusts near 25 kts are likely behind the front. Meanwhile, westerly winds will increase again Saturday afternoon ahead of the front across western and central NM. Gusts between 25 and 30kt are expected in these areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025 Strong winds and subcritical humidity have been observed over much of northeast and east-central NM as well as parts of west-central NM this afternoon. West winds will diminish this evening as humidity recovers very slowly across central and western NM. A backdoor cold front will move west thru eastern NM tonight then become stationary near the Pecos River by Saturday morning. Southwest winds will then increase again Saturday but trend weaker than today. Humidity will also trend higher so the coverage of critical fire weather is much less than today. A pattern change toward cooler temps and higher humidity will begin Sunday for eastern NM in the wake of the backdoor cold front. More cloud cover will also spread over the region with even lighter winds than Saturday. The chances for rain and snow showers will increase for northern NM next week, especially later in the week on west and southwest-facing slopes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 30 60 30 58 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 56 23 54 / 10 10 0 5 Cuba............................ 25 62 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 64 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 62 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 23 66 21 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 68 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 71 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 33 67 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 17 71 22 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 20 73 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 27 50 24 48 / 10 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 38 60 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 32 59 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 53 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 49 29 43 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 31 51 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 56 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 34 62 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 24 66 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 60 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 63 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 42 66 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 37 69 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 71 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 70 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 29 73 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 31 69 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 71 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 30 70 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 24 71 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 34 69 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 34 76 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 62 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 40 66 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 42 65 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 23 67 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 63 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 34 67 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 44 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 52 21 42 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 61 20 52 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 62 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 38 64 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 47 17 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 38 58 21 47 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 68 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 72 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 42 63 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 40 73 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 76 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 77 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 38 83 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 42 79 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 47 77 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ223-232-233. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-105-123- 125-126. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ215- 227>229. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...34