770
FXUS65 KABQ 301958
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1258 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Minor winter impacts in the form of slick and icy roads will
  reach the northern mountains tonight thru Monday morning where
  Winter Weather Advisories are in effect, mainly through high
  mountain passes in the Sangre de Cristo and Tusas Mts.

- Strong westerly headwinds will develop along I-40 from the
  central mountain chain eastward to the TX border.

- Another colder winter system looks to bring a dusting to modest
  snow amounts to a larger swath of northern and central NM
  Wednesday night thru Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Yesterday`s cold front that backed south and west thru eastern NM
and the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande
Valley last night is washing out with surface winds veering out of
the southeast and south this hour. There will not be enough time for
this airmass to modify keeping high temperatures 12F to 17F below
normal in the 30s and 40s. The next storm system is tracking
southward over northern UT and western WY as a 550dm H5 low this
morning with it`s associated vortmax pushing southward over NV.
There is little to no change with the forecast evolution and track
of this winter system passing over northern NM tonight thru Monday
morning. Valley rain and mountain snow will first spread into the
Four Corners region south and east of the NM state line this
evening. A modest snowband will accompany the Pacific cold front
into northwestern NM likely producing a brief period of low
visibility across this portion of Navajo Nation and areas from
Farmington to Dulce. Thereafter, the main winter impacts will be
minor and relegated to the northern mountains where 2 to 6 inches of
fresh snow are forecast to fall over the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo
Mts above 9,000`. Slightly lower amounts of 1 to 4 inches will also
favor the Chuska and Jemez Mts. Forecast snow amounts did creep up
an inch or two over the northern Sangre de Cristo`s, with duration
being the main question there as H7 temperatures of -4C to -8C will
allow for decent snow ratios. Southerly to southwesterly upslope
flow riding up into the nook where Taos is located should allow for
a small area of orographic enhancement tonight. As such, the Winter
Weather Advisory was expanded to this area. Much of this will be
beneficial snow with minor impacts relegated to travel corridors
along U.S. Highway 64 and NM38.

A few flurries are likely to reach Santa Fe, and unlikely to reach
ABQ but still within the realm of possibility in the foothills late
tonight. Nevertheless, conditions clear past sunrise Monday morning
as what`s left of the shortwave trough exits eastward toward TX.
Forecast high temperatures Monday fall 8F to 15F behind the Pacific
cold front over western NM, warming across eastern NM where today`s
colder airmass will have been shoved aside. Statewide, temperatures
will be 5F to 12F below normal with highs generally in the 40s and
50s thru the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tuesday sees near zonal flow over NM ahead of the next troughing
pattern setting up over the PacNW. Strengthening westerly winds
develop along and east of the central mountain chain, enhanced by a
1000mb MSLP surface low. Breezy to windy conditions with gusts of 35
to 45 mph will produce strong headwinds for westbound travelers
along I-40 from the TX border to the central mountain chain.

Numerical model guidance has come into much better agreement over
the past 24 hours with regards to the Wednesday night thru Thursday
night winter system. While model solutions remain roughly split b/w
the trough closing off to a low over southern UT/northern AZ
Wednesday, all are progressing the system as an open trough over NM
Wednesday night through Thursday. A longwave trough traversing the
northern CONUS will send down a cold front backing into eastern NM
ahead of the shortwave trough to the northwest of NM. This will
provide easterly upslope flow to the east slopes of the central
mountain chain slightly enhancing the modest upper level dynamics
for valley rain and mountain snow showers to expand over much of the
forecast area. Snow levels look to be slightly lower with this
system falling to 5,500` to 6,000` thru western and central NM with
lower levels thru eastern NM down to 3,000` behind the backdoor cold
front bringing colder continental air down from Canada. Despite this
system supported by lower snow levels and what will likely be the
largest areal snow footprint across northern and central NM of the
season so far, actual snowfall amounts will be light to modest. The
weakening nature of the opening trough axis coupled with a
relatively shorter residence time over any one location is currently
favoring general snow amounts of a dusting to 2 inches at lower
elevations with 2 to 6 inches above 8,500`. Aside from
precipitation, CAA and persistent cloud cover will keep Thursday
high temperatures 5F to 20F below normal with widespread 30s and
40s.

Conditions clear west to east across the state early Friday with
temperatures staying cold along and west of the Continental Divide.
Temperatures rebound warmer for eastern NM where highs climb back
into the 50s. A slow but steady warming trend continues into the
weekend with any light precipitation favoring the northern mountains
near the CO border.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings are clearing along the highlands of the central
mountain chain this hour, still loitering near KLVS however.
Surface winds will steady veer southerly at most locations this
afternoon ahead of the next winter system clipping northern NM
tonight. Winds will turn westerly to northwesterly with the
Pacific cold front tonight. IFR/MVFR conditions associated with
lowering ceilings and snow will be relegated to the northern
mountain areas. KFMN has the best chance of TAF terminals of
seeing a short period of reduced visibilities <2SM from snow. The
band of snow steadily loses its cohesion by the time it reaches
KSAF and KABQ as snow becomes mostly terrain driven along
southwest facing slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Tusas Mts
early Monday morning. VFR will prevail for all areas along and
east of the central mountain chain and all areas along and south
of I-40 except perhaps KGUP and KGNT. Conditions steadily clear
out thru Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days aside from Tuesday. A
weak winter system brings snow to the northern mountains tonight,
with another more widespread system bringing light to modest snow
Wednesday night thru Thursday night. Tuesday sees temperatures warm
alongside strengthening westerlies between these two winter systems.
While humidity is forecast to stay near or above critical
thresholds, a period of elevated fire weather conditions will favor
the central and east-central highlands Tuesday afternoon as gusts of
35-45mph develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  27  43  21  44 /  60   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  19  42   9  43 /  80   5   0   0
Cuba............................  22  38  14  43 /  60   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  19  42  12  47 /  50   0   0   0
El Morro........................  24  42  18  47 /  40  10   0   0
Grants..........................  23  45  13  51 /  40   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  28  43  18  53 /  10  10   0   0
Magdalena.......................  31  47  25  53 /   5   5   0   0
Datil...........................  29  43  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  25  54  19  58 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  29  60  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  17  36   9  39 /  90  20   0   0
Los Alamos......................  28  40  21  43 /  50  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  25  43  19  47 /  30  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  23  37  16  41 /  70  30   0   0
Red River.......................  17  29  11  35 /  80  30   0   0
Angel Fire......................  14  35   4  41 /  60  20   0   0
Taos............................  22  40  11  44 /  60  20   0   0
Mora............................  20  42  16  51 /  40  10   0   0
Espanola........................  26  47  17  49 /  60  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  29  42  22  43 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  28  45  19  45 /  30  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  35  47  29  48 /  20  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  34  50  24  50 /  20  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  33  52  19  52 /  20  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  50  24  50 /  20   5   0   0
Belen...........................  30  53  15  52 /  10  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  33  50  23  51 /  20  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  30  52  14  51 /  20  10   0   0
Corrales........................  33  51  22  51 /  20  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  32  52  16  51 /  20  10   0   0
Placitas........................  33  45  26  47 /  30  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  34  50  24  51 /  20  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  32  57  25  56 /   5   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  29  42  22  44 /  30  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  43  23  45 /  20  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  29  45  19  47 /  20  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  27  46  13  49 /  20   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  26  42  19  46 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  30  45  20  48 /  20   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  28  47  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  33  51  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  35  47  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  13  33  14  51 /  10  20   0   0
Raton...........................  14  40  12  54 /  20  20   0   0
Springer........................  16  43  12  56 /  10  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  22  43  17  53 /  10   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  20  40  19  55 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  18  43  16  55 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  22  48  19  60 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  22  47  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  22  47  20  61 /   0   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  21  49  21  58 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  20  52  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  20  51  19  60 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  24  58  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  25  57  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  28  58  23  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Monday for NMZ210-213.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24