557
FXUS65 KABQ 191140 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
440 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 431 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

- Cold temperatures are in place after an arctic front invaded.
  Many locations within northern and central New Mexico will
  struggle to warm much above freezing this afternoon, and cold
  wind chills will also be common, keeping an elevated risk for
  hypothermia and frostbite for those with prolonged exposure
  outdoors.

- A second arctic cold front will arrive Monday with even colder
  air and more light snow of generally 2 inches or less. Higher
  amounts of 2 to 4 inches will likely fall on the high peaks of
  the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Even light snow amounts will
  create slick travel given the very cold air and breezy winds.
  Even more dangerously cold wind chills are expected with this
  second arctic airmass Monday and Monday night.

- Strong east canyon winds on the east side of Albuquerque may
  reach 40 to 50 mph Monday night. This will force wind chill
  values below zero early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Temperatures will be cold today in the wake of an arctic front
with highs in many locations of northern and central New Mexico
struggling to warm much above freezing this afternoon. Even
colder temperatures will arrive on Monday when a second, stronger
arctic front brings another surge of numbingly frigid air to New
Mexico, as well as some additional light snow to portions of
northeastern and central areas of the state. The northern
mountains and northeastern corner of New Mexico will observe the
coldest temperatures and the most snow between now and Monday
night with additional snow accumulations of a dusting to 4
inches. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected
with this second arctic front, especially Monday night when an
Extreme Cold Watch is in effect. Mostly drier weather will then
prevail from the middle to late part of the week with milder
temperatures slowly arriving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 143 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

The 1041mb sfc high over the northern plains associated with the
arctic invasion will continue its trek southward into the central
and eventually southern plains this afternoon. The very cold and dry
airmass will remain in place today, with highs ranging from 5
degrees below average in the west to 25 degrees below average in the
east. With the aformentioned sfc high sliding southward, winds will
turn around to the south in the east. Even the light breeze will
make it feel much colder since temps won`t even rise above freezing
in most of eastern NM.

A positively tilted longwave trough over the western CONUS will
continue deepening Monday, resulting in continue cold air advection
aloft over New Mexico. Another colder and drier modified arctic
airmass, this time associated with a 1046mb high, will push in from
the east Monday afternoon. Similar to yesterday`s winter storm,
there will be a brief shot of snow in the northern mountains and
northeast plains with the initial frontal passage. Briefly reduced
visibility from blowing snow will be a hazard, but the bitterly cold
temps will be the main concern. More details about exactly how cold
it will get in the long-term...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 143 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Bone-chilling air seeps farther south and west into NM Monday
night as the anomalously strong surface high builds down the
plains. The upper longwave trough will also send an embedded
shortwave perturbation into NM. Without much moisture
accompanying, snow production will be largely reliant on boundary
layer frontogenetical forcing and upslope flow which should only
squeeze out meager accumulations from northeastern to central
zones. The peaks and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos would
fare the best with 1 to 4 inches being the most likely amounts and
generally a dusting to an inch in surrounding areas. This will
place the bigger impacts on the extremely cold temperatures over
all zones, but especially in the northern mountains to
northeastern plains. Have opted to go ahead and issue an Extreme
Cold Watch for Monday night into Tuesday morning (for all zones) to
cover this.

The shortwave trough will translate farther southeast into the
daytime Tuesday with snow abating and stiff northwesterly flow
aloft persisting. Surface winds will quickly veer in direction
with a lee-side surface trough rapidly developing by mid day, and
this will boost temperatures notably over the eastern plains, as
downsloping leads to compressional warming. Areas in central to
western NM will see winds shift in direction, but will not get
the benefit of downsloping, so Tuesday`s highs will not alter much
from Monday`s readings. Despite the warming in the east, all
zones will run at least 10 to 20 degrees below climatology with
dry conditions and lots of sunshine posing the optical illusion of
false warmth.

The northwesterlies aloft increase Tuesday night into Wednesday
with a couple more embedded shortwave troughs along for the ride.
A lack of sufficient moisture will keep things dry in NM, but the
rise in momentum aloft should translate to breezy conditions at
the surface, especially for those prone to be gusty in northwest
flow (Four Corners to central highlands). In the east, another
backdoor front will invade, but not much notable temperature
change is expected.

As a deep longwave trough continues to carve itself out over the
eastern ConUS Thursday, a very cold airmass will slide down the
Great Plains and into the greater Mississippi River valley, just
grazing eastern NM. Northwesterly flow aloft would relax some with
moderately breezy conditions, but speeds should be less than what
was observed on Wednesday.

The flow still looks to turn zonal and relax into Friday, but may
begin to strengthen slightly into Saturday as the next potential
upstream perturbation shapes up near or offshore of CA. Model
consensus has grown much tighter with less spread during the
Wednesday through Saturday time frame, but details start turning
muddy into Sunday and beyond with the strength of cold air aloft
being the biggest determinant (GFS/GEFS hosts a much colder
thermal low over the Great Basin).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

An area of MVFR to IFR cigs persists along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain this morning. A southeast wind is trying to
push this cloud bank as far west as KSAF so a mention of low
clouds was included there. There are still a few flurries out
there in the central and northeast highlands, but these should end
within the next 3 hours. Low clouds will begin to erode after
sunrise, but will likely be slower to diminish than guidance
suggests. After those clear, VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period. The next arctic cold front will be on the doorstep
of northeastern NM by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Very cold temperatures are expected today and Monday, then highs
tumble even further Monday night behind another arctic air
intrusion. Light snow will favor the northeast on Monday, with
little to no snow accumulation. This airmass will push further than
the previous one, creating gusty east winds as it spills through the
gaps of the central mountain chain Monday night. Temperatures will
moderate up to seasonal averages next week thanks to rising pressure
heights. Some breezes are likely in the typical windy areas east of
the central mountain chain each afternoon, but winds will generally
be light elsewhere. Afternoon minimum humidities will generally be
in the 15 to 25% range across much of the area each day next week.
Ventilation will be fair to good in many areas today and tomorrow,
but will become poor nearly areawide Tuesday through Friday.

Long-term guidance is suggesting that a trough will develop over the
Great Basin next weekend, increasing the potential for some Pacific
moisture to make its way inland towards New Mexico. Confidence in
precipitation is still low, but western areas will be favored for
snow next weekend into the early part of the following week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  34   7  32   2 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  30  -1  27  -9 /   0   0  20  10
Cuba............................  33   4  28  -3 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  40  -3  33  -9 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  11  33  -4 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  41   3  35  -5 /   0   0   0  30
Quemado.........................  43  12  36  -2 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  42  20  36   7 /   0   0   5  30
Datil...........................  43  15  35   3 /   0   0   0  20
Reserve.........................  50   8  42  -1 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  51  22  48  17 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  25  -3  20  -7 /   0   0  30  20
Los Alamos......................  29  13  28   4 /   0   0  20  30
Pecos...........................  30   7  26  -1 /   0   0  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  27   3  22  -4 /   0   0  40  20
Red River.......................  18  -1  14  -6 /   5   0  60  30
Angel Fire......................  22 -11  16 -25 /   5   5  70  40
Taos............................  29   2  26  -9 /   0   0  40  20
Mora............................  32   1  20  -8 /   5   0  40  20
Espanola........................  36  10  35  -1 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe........................  30  13  29   3 /   0   0  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  33  12  33   1 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  23  38  10 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  20  39   9 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  17  41   2 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  38  18  39   9 /   0   0   5  20
Belen...........................  42  14  41   3 /   0   0   5  20
Bernalillo......................  40  15  40   5 /   0   0   5  20
Bosque Farms....................  40  11  40   0 /   0   0   5  20
Corrales........................  40  16  40   6 /   0   0   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  40  11  41   4 /   0   0   5  20
Placitas........................  35  17  37   7 /   0   0  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  39  18  39   8 /   0   0   5  20
Socorro.........................  46  21  43   9 /   0   0   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  14  32   3 /   0   0  10  30
Tijeras.........................  33  17  34   6 /   0   0  10  30
Edgewood........................  35  13  33   0 /   0   0  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37   2  33  -6 /   0   0  10  30
Clines Corners..................  31  10  21  -4 /   0   0  10  30
Mountainair.....................  36  14  34  -1 /   0   0   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  35  14  36   0 /   0   0   0  30
Carrizozo.......................  38  21  42   7 /   0   0   0  50
Ruidoso.........................  36  18  39   3 /   0   0   0  50
Capulin.........................  20   2   4 -10 /   0   0  40   0
Raton...........................  24   2  10 -11 /   0   0  50   5
Springer........................  27   1  15 -11 /   0   0  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  32   4  17  -4 /   5   0  20  20
Clayton.........................  25   9  15  -1 /   0   0  30   5
Roy.............................  25   7  16  -4 /   0   0  20   5
Conchas.........................  34  13  25   3 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  35  12  25   3 /   0   0   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  30  13  24   3 /   0   0  10  10
Clovis..........................  31  14  29   7 /   0   0   0  20
Portales........................  33  12  31   6 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  33  12  32   4 /   0   0   0  20
Roswell.........................  37  19  37  15 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  38  14  34   7 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  44  17  41   5 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for NMZ203-204-
206-207-210-212>216-218-222-223-226>232-234.

Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for NMZ201>241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16