Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
979 FXUS65 KABQ 101202 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 602 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Thunderstorm chances will increase over central, eastern, and southern areas today, then scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast over these areas Monday and Tuesday with a risk of locally heavy rainfall. Precip chances will then decrease Wednesday and Thursday. - This afternoon and evening, some storms from Taos to Albuquerque, and westward from Albuquerque to the continental divide, will produce erratic wind gusts with little or no rain reaching the surface. - There will be a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over northeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with a marginal risk farther south across the east central and southeast plains. On Monday, a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms will return to far east central areas. - The risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars will increase some today, then moreso Monday and Tuesday, before decreasing again mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A cooling trend is forecast today through Monday as an upper level trough gradually crosses the central and southern Rockies from the southwest. The upper trough will steer a couple moist backdoor cold fronts into NM, the first of which has already reached the northeast plains. Models generally agree on this front reaching as far south and west as Ruidoso and Roswell around midday today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain chain today, as well as over the south central valleys. Numerous storms are forecast over the southwest mountains, and also over NM`s northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast plains. Shear and instability look sufficient for some storms over the northeast to be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. PWATs are forecast to climb to around 100 percent of average today, which increases the potential for locally heavy rainfall some; especially over eastern areas. An exception will be across northwest areas where the PWATs will continue to be around 75 percent of normal today. This will result in another round of isolated, gusty, and mostly dry virga showers and thunderstorms from Taos to Santa fe and Albuquerque, then westward along I-40 to the continental divide. Radar indicated that the southeast part of the South Fork Burn Scar accumulated up to 1 inch of rain Saturday afternoon and evening, making that burn scar more susceptible to rapid runoff and flash flooding today. However, models are inconsistent on the placement of precip bullseyes across south central and southeast Lincoln County for this afternoon, and the QPF forecast in the Ruidoso area is generally less than a half inch, so decided not to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area scars with this forecast package. As we and the models gain greater confidence on where the backdoor cold front will be around midday, our confidence in burn scar flash flooding may grow enough for the morning shift to issue a Flash Flood Watch. A second, moist backdoor front is forecast to push southwestward through the forecast area on Sunday night and Monday morning, likely pushing through gaps in the central mountain chain with a modest east canyon wind. The tail end of the upper trough will still be overhead on Monday, and the moisture with the front will help increase wetting thunderstorm coverage over southern, central, and eastern areas, while very dry air remains in place west central and northwest. The risk of burn scar flash flooding looks to increase on Monday as PWATs climb around 125 percent of average along and east of the central mountain chain. Isolated flash flooding events will also be possible outside of burn scars from the central mountain chain eastward Monday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 The risk of burn scar flash flooding will return on Tuesday as a southeasterly return flow of low level moisture banks up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain. A moderately strong high pressure system aloft over NV will steer storms toward the south and southeast off NM`s high terrain. Moisture will then recycle with decreasing storm coverage and rainfall intensity Wednesday and Thursday as the high pressure system aloft weakens some and migrates more directly over NM. Temperatures will trend warmer again around mid week, but not nearly as warm as the recent heatwave. Highs will probably peak on Thursday from near to around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will trend cooler and precipitation chances will increase again from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. A more traditional monsoon moisture plume will cross central and western NM from the south as a broad high pressure system develops over the southeast US, and an upper level trough deepens over the west coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A moist backdoor front will produce a northeasterly wind shift as it dives southwestward through east central and southeast parts of the forecast area this morning. It will continue to trigger scattered and gusty virga showers and isolated thunderstorms from central to southeast parts of the forecast area until mid morning, or so. The front is forecast to reach as far south as KROW and KSRR around midday. The front and an upper level trough crossing the region will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening, some of which are likely to turn severe with large hail and damaging winds. A few clusters of storms are forecast to track eastward off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and across northeast areas this afternoon and evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to form over the southwest mountains this afternoon, then move east southeastward across the south central valleys during the late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, mainly isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and early evening from Taos southward to Albuquerque, then from Albuquerque westward along the I-40 corridor to the AZ border. Some of the stronger virga showers and dry storms could produce localized, brief, and erratic, dry microburst wind gusts up to 45 KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Isolated and gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon from Taos to Albuquerque, then westward down I-40 to the continental divide. East and south of there, wetting precip chances will increase compared to Saturday. Critically low humidities will afflict northwest and west central areas until perhaps Friday. Elsewhere, PWATs will climb near average today, then above average Monday, increasing the likelihood of wetting precipitation through Tuesday. After a decreasing thunderstorm coverage with recycling moisture Wednesday and Thursday, a more traditional flow of monsoon moisture is forecast to establish at the end of the week with increasing coverage of wetting thunderstorms from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 56 94 59 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 44 89 47 / 10 5 10 5 Cuba............................ 89 52 87 53 / 10 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 92 49 92 49 / 10 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 53 88 52 / 20 30 10 10 Grants.......................... 91 52 91 52 / 30 20 10 10 Quemado......................... 87 56 88 53 / 40 30 20 10 Magdalena....................... 88 61 88 58 / 50 30 30 20 Datil........................... 86 55 86 53 / 60 30 30 10 Reserve......................... 92 52 93 51 / 70 40 30 20 Glenwood........................ 96 58 96 57 / 60 30 40 20 Chama........................... 81 43 84 46 / 20 10 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 86 57 81 57 / 20 20 50 20 Pecos........................... 86 54 80 53 / 40 40 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 50 79 50 / 40 30 60 30 Red River....................... 72 40 69 42 / 40 30 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 76 38 72 38 / 50 40 80 30 Taos............................ 85 50 82 50 / 30 20 50 30 Mora............................ 79 47 74 48 / 60 50 80 40 Espanola........................ 93 57 89 55 / 20 20 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 88 59 83 57 / 20 30 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 56 86 55 / 20 20 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 63 90 63 / 20 20 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 65 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 62 94 62 / 20 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 64 93 62 / 20 20 20 20 Belen........................... 97 61 95 59 / 20 20 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 96 61 93 60 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 97 59 94 58 / 20 20 20 20 Corrales........................ 97 62 94 61 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 97 61 94 60 / 20 20 20 20 Placitas........................ 92 60 89 60 / 20 20 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 96 63 93 61 / 20 20 20 20 Socorro......................... 98 65 96 63 / 30 30 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 56 84 54 / 20 20 40 20 Tijeras......................... 89 58 86 57 / 20 20 40 30 Edgewood........................ 90 53 85 53 / 30 30 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 52 84 52 / 30 30 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 78 53 / 30 40 60 30 Mountainair..................... 89 54 85 53 / 30 30 40 30 Gran Quivira.................... 88 55 85 54 / 40 30 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 91 61 88 60 / 40 40 50 40 Ruidoso......................... 82 56 79 54 / 50 40 70 40 Capulin......................... 75 50 71 50 / 80 90 80 50 Raton........................... 80 51 76 50 / 80 80 80 40 Springer........................ 83 52 78 52 / 60 70 80 40 Las Vegas....................... 82 51 74 51 / 50 40 80 40 Clayton......................... 81 56 77 57 / 50 80 50 50 Roy............................. 81 54 76 54 / 50 70 70 60 Conchas......................... 87 61 84 60 / 30 60 50 60 Santa Rosa...................... 86 59 83 57 / 20 50 50 50 Tucumcari....................... 85 60 81 59 / 20 60 30 70 Clovis.......................... 91 63 86 62 / 20 40 30 70 Portales........................ 92 63 88 62 / 20 40 30 70 Fort Sumner..................... 92 64 88 61 / 20 40 40 50 Roswell......................... 100 68 93 67 / 30 30 30 40 Picacho......................... 92 61 87 59 / 40 30 50 40 Elk............................. 90 57 84 56 / 50 30 70 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44