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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
508 FXUS65 KVEF 052012 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 112 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Exceptionally hot temperatures are the main focus of the forecast through most of next week. This type of heat is dangerous to all without adequate cooling or hydration. Numerous climate sites face high probabilities of breaking daily as well as all-time temperature records as well. && .DISCUSSION...Today through next Friday. Dangerous record breaking heat is the main forecast concern through the weekend and most of next week. A nearly 600 dm 500 mb high currently centered off the northern California coast will migrate east into California and the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley over the weekend and early next week. At the surface, this means exceptionally hot daytime temperatures with little overnight relief. Widespread Major (Level 3) to Extreme (Level 4) HeatRisk is forecast to last at least through next Thursday. The effects of compounding heat will impact anyone without access to effective cooling or adequate hydration. The all-time record high temperature for Las Vegas is 117 degrees, achieved 5 times, most recently in 2021. The probability of breaking this record is 50% on Sunday, 25% on Monday, 50% on Tuesday and 42% on Wednesday. Numerous daily records are also in jeopardy across the area - see the Climate section below. The Excessive Heat Warning expands into Lincoln County and northern Mohave County tomorrow afternoon, then remains in effect across the area through Wednesday evening. Will continue to monitor heat trends to determine if extensions beyond Wednesday will be needed. Forecast confidence decreases later next week. Some solutions suggest that the upper level low will move far enough to the east to allow monsoonal moisture from the south to reach the forecast area, with the greatest chances for precipitation in northwest Arizona. Increased moisture in the air could also provide some relief from the heat. However, if the ridge does not track east and remains in place, expect very hot and dry conditions to persist. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast winds are expected early this afternoon. Wind speeds to 10KT with a few gusts to 15-20KT are expected from 18Z-20Z. After 20Z, winds will drop to under 8KT and become more easterly. Light winds under 8KT are likely tonight and Saturday morning with typical wind patterns expected this evening through the overnight period. Northeast winds will set up again again Saturday late morning and continue through the early afternoon, however speeds will be lower today with a only a 10% chance for wind speeds over 8KT Saturday. No impactful weather or clouds are expected through the TAF period. Dangerous heat continues today and Saturday afternoon with temperatures over 100 degrees expected each day 16Z through 06Z. High temperatures over 110F are likely. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light winds under 10KT is expected at most locations today through Saturday morning. The exception will be down the Colorado River Valley where breezy north to northwest winds are expected. Occasional gusts up to 20KT are possible (60% chance) at KEED and KIFP this afternoon before winds diminish around 03Z. Typical wind patterns are expected tonight and Saturday morning. No impactful weather or clouds are expected through the TAF period. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 MON, JUL 8 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 116(2007)* 115(2007)* 116(2017)* 114(2021)* Bishop 108(2007)* 105(2021)* 107(2021)* 109(2021)* Needles 121(1989)* 120(1922)* 122(2017)* 120(2017)* Daggett 118(2007) 115(2007)* 116(1989)* 114(2021)* Kingman 109(2007)* 108(2017)* 112(2017)* 108(2017)* Desert Rock 112(2007) 111(2007)* 111(2017)* 108(2017)* Death Valley 126(2013)* 127(2007)* 129(2007)* 128(1913)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 MON, JUL 8 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 89(2013)* 90(1957)* 93(2018) 92(2017)* Bishop 67(1984) 67(1985) 72(2014) 70(1991) Needles 92(2013) 97(1903) 95(1942) 95(2018) Daggett 84(1984)* 83(2007)* 80(2018)* 84(2021)* Kingman 78(2021) 79(1981) 80(1917) 84(2014) Desert Rock 80(1981) 83(1992) 82(1981) 81(2021) Death Valley 110(1918) 99(2013)* 101(2021) 105(1921) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Nickerson CLIMATE...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter