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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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679 FXUS63 KUNR 070740 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 140 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Popcorn showers/thunderstorms today - Hot/dry weather develops next week - Elevated fire weather conditions second half of next week && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 07z surface analysis had low over eastern ND with trailing stationary front into eastern NE, then into central WY. Features reflection of upper trough per water vapour across the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Trough spinning series of weak shortwaves across the region with one over northwest SD and another over southern SK. Regional radar loop depicted isolated/scattered showers/TS. Effects of these features main short term concern. Today/tonight, last shortwave passes through CWA with weak buoyancy (300-700J/kg SBCAPE)/shear (<30kts 0-6km bulk) regime. Overnight precipitation should wane this morning a bit, but most CAMS depict popcorn showers/TS by afternoon as convective temperatures are reached, especially over western SD. Decreasing influence of upper trough tonight combined with loss of solar insolation will promote end of precipitation. Temperatures will be near guidance. Next week, high confidence that western CONUS upper/thermal ridge expands into the northern Plains. The result will be drier and increasingly hot weather. High probability of 90F+ MaxT for the end of the week with 100F readings within reach, especially Friday and Saturday per probabilistic guidance/EFI. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 937 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA can be expected through Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Confidence is high that next week will be increasingly hot and dry. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will dip into the teens over northeastern WY Wednesday, spreading into western SD by the end of the week. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson AVIATION...JC FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson