Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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956 FXUS63 KUNR 071955 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 155 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered popcorn showers/storms this afternoon and evening. - Dry and warmer the rest of the week. - Elevated fire conditions as the week progresses. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper trough over the northern plains this afternoon, with upper ridge building over the west coast. Surface analysis depicts low pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with a N/S boundary running down into Nebraska. Radar highlights widespread popcorn storms over the forecast area. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon, with breezy northwest winds outside of storms. Storms are expected to continue through the afternoon, dyeing off early evening as we lose the daytime heating. Very low CAPE and shear today will limit any severe potential, but still could experience brief downpours with small hail and some stronger wind gusts. The presence of storms today along with breezy northwest winds will keep our temperatures at or a bit below guidance. Later tonight through Monday the upper ridge builds over the western CONUS into the Rockies, and eventually over the northern and central plains later in the week.This pattern shift will bring warmer and dry conditions the rest of this week. By Thursday/Friday expect widespread 90+ temps, with some areas potentially hitting low 100s over the weekend. This drier and increasingly hot weather will also bring elevated fire conditions, with areas in northeastern WY and southwestern SD hitting RH`s down into the lower teens at times during the week. Long range models do show a brief wave riding the ridge over the northern plains next Sunday, which will likely be the next chance for any significant precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1225 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Isolated TSRA/SHRA will continue through early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...MLS