Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
327 FXUS63 KUNR 042304 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 504 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/storms and breezy winds will dissipate this evening - Warmer Friday through Sunday with daily chances for storms - Hot/dry weather develops next week && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 An upper low spins over the northern plains, helping to produce scattered showers/storms across the CWA. With a somewhat tight pressure gradient at the surface, northwesterly winds are 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. Temperatures early this afternoon are in and around the 60s. Showers/storms and breezy winds will gradually dissipate this evening as the low shifts eastward. Temperatures will cool to the 50s and lower 60s this evening, then dip into the 40s some places by early Friday morning. With an upper ridge over the west coast, weak shortwaves moving through northwest flow will cross the northern plains over the next few days. Weak buoyancy and shear Friday afternoon will contribute to more scattered, non-severe showers/storms. The main forcing arrives in the evening, and with improving shear, some nocturnal storms will be possible. Another shortwave approaches Saturday afternoon/evening. Up to 60 kts of 0-6km shear across the southern half of the CWA would support strong to severe storms, although buoyancy will be weak most places. The best overlap of shear/CAPE/forcing in our area appears to be south central SD, where there is currently a Marginal Risk. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s Friday through Sunday. Warmer and drier weather is expected early next week, as the western CONUS ridge builds. Highs will be in the 80s on the plains Monday, with temperatures increasing each day through next weekend. Probabilities of reaching 100 degrees on the plains reach 50%+ next Friday and increase to 70% for much of the CWA by next Saturday && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued At 502 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conds through the forecast period. Showers will diminish this evening along with breezy NW winds. Sct showers can be expected again Fri afternoon, with breezy NW winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A pattern change to much drier and warm/hot weather is foreseen for next week. Minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 20s will be common by Wednesday, with some teens over northeastern WY. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie AVIATION...JC FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie