828
FXUS63 KUNR 060426
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1026 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder through Sunday with daily chances for thunderstorms
- Hot/dry weather develops next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Upper-level analysis shows a low pushing into the
Great Lakes, a strong ridge over the west coast, and a shortwave
trough pushing into MT from Canada. Scattered showers have
developed across the western SD plains. At the surface, winds are
northwesterly 5-10 kts, and temps are warming into the 70s.

Tonight, the MT shortwave will approach our CWA and spark some
showers/storms. Severe storms are not expected.

Overnight precip will clear out in the morning, but some weak
showers/storms may redevelop in the afternoon again. Then closer to
evening, another shortwave trough pushes into the northern plains.
Shear will be sufficient for strong/severe storms across the
southern half of the CWA, but buoyancy will be weak. At this time it
appears that the upper wave will arrive too late to interact with
the better CAPE across south central SD, so not too excited about
Saturday evening`s storms.

Lingering unsettled upper air pattern, along with weak buoyancy and
shear, could result in another afternoon of scattered showers/weak
storms Sunday. Highs through the weekend will be in the 70s/low 80s
on the plains, 60s in the Black Hills.

Next week, the west coast ridge will strengthen and slowly slide
eastward, bringing about a hot and dry weather pattern. Highs will
be in the 80s on Monday, and then become increasingly warmer each
day. By next Friday, widespread 90s are expected. Probabilities of
reaching 100 degrees become increasingly likely next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1026 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered-isolated TSRA/SHRA will continue through the period as
a series of shortwave troughs traverse the region. VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 132 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Confidence is high that a pattern change next week
will result in increasingly hot weather. Minimum afternoon relative
humidities will dip into the teens and 20s, especially across
northeastern WY and far southwestern SD. Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie