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Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
078 FNUS55 KTWC 192242 FWFTWC Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southeast Arizona National Weather Service Tucson AZ 342 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 20-FOOT WIND FORECAST OF `LIGHT WINDS` INDICATES MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ .DISCUSSION...Deeper moisture remains across southeast Arizona, with typical July moisture levels expected into at least early next week. This will result in the daily cycle of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The main threats will be strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-30 percent in most lower elevation locations and 25-40 percent in mountain areas. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight. Wind direction during the afternoon hours will primarily be west to northwest through the weekend, especially from Tucson westward and in the upper Gila River Valley. AZZ150-201415- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150 Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County- Tohono O`odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC- 342 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........78 to 88 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............45 to 55 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........40 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........102 to 112 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............17 to 27 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southwest around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............9312 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........West 8 to 11 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (102432 knot-ft). .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Patchy blowing dust. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........76 to 86 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............50 to 60 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 5 to 9 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Breezy. Southwest around 25 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........40 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........100 to 110 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............20 to 30 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 2 to 5 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........20 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10571 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........East 7 knots shifting to the north 11 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (116281 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 76 to 86. Highs 99 to 109. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 21 to 31 pct. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 85. Highs 99 to 109. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 22 to 32 pct. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 85. Highs 99 to 109. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 22 to 32 pct. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75 to 85. Highs 99 to 109. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 76 to 86. Highs 97 to 107. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 150 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LOCATION (2550 MSL) $$ AZZ151-201415- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151 Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to 5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County- Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County- Santa Cruz County-TDC- 342 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........69 to 79 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............58 to 68 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 8 to 12 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........50 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........93 to 103 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............23 to 33 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming west around 15 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........60 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............7602 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........North 6 to 14 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (106428 knot-ft). .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........66 to 76 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs. * Max Humidity.............68 to 78 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 8 to 12 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Breezy. Southeast around 25 mph decreasing to around 15 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........70 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........91 to 101 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............26 to 36 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 3 to 6 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast around 10 mph increasing to west around 20 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........60 pct. * LAL......................3. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10245 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........East 8 knots shifting to the west 15 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (153675 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 90 to 100. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 29 to 39 pct. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 91 to 101. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 27 to 37 pct. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 92 to 102. North wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 27 to 37 pct. .THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 91 to 101. .FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 67 to 77. Highs 89 to 99. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 151 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE BUENOS AIRES N.W.R. LOCATION (3500 MSL) $$ AZZ152-201415- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152 Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to 5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation- Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC- 342 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........68 to 78 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............57 to 67 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 5 to 9 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........50 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. * Max Temperature..........93 to 103 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............20 to 30 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Windy. Light winds becoming southwest around 30 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........70 pct. * LAL......................5. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10067 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........Northeast 6 knots increasing to east 22 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (221474 knot-ft). .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........66 to 76 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs. * Max Humidity.............66 to 76 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 9 to 13 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Breezy. South around 25 mph becoming southeast around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........80 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. * Max Temperature..........90 to 100 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 degs. * Min Humidity.............25 to 35 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 3 to 7 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Breezy. Southeast around 10 mph increasing to around 25 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........70 pct. * LAL......................5. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............8819 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........East 9 knots increasing to southeast 20 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (176380 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65 to 75. Highs 88 to 98. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 26 to 36 pct. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65 to 75. Highs 89 to 99. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 23 to 33 pct. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 92 to 102. Northeast wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 22 to 32 pct. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 91 to 101. .FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 66 to 76. Highs 89 to 99. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 152 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE CHIRICAHUA N.M. LOCATION (5400 MSL) $$ AZZ153-201415- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153 Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County- White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF- Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC- 342 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........60 to 70 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............61 to 71 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 7 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........50 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. * Max Temperature..........83 to 93 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 1 to 4 degs. * Min Humidity.............25 to 35 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Breezy. Light winds becoming southwest around 25 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........70 pct. * LAL......................5. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............8048 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........North 6 knots increasing to 20 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (160960 knot-ft). .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........58 to 68 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............71 to 81 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 7 to 11 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast around 20 mph becoming east around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........80 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. * Max Temperature..........79 to 89 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 3 to 6 degs. * Min Humidity.............34 to 44 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 5 to 9 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Southeast around 10 mph increasing to south around 20 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip.........80 pct. * LAL......................5. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............7343 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........Southeast 7 to 14 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (102802 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 57 to 67. Highs 77 to 87. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 33 to 43 pct. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 57 to 67. Highs 78 to 88. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 32 to 42 pct. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 81 to 91. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 27 to 37 pct. .THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 81 to 91. .FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 59 to 69. Highs 78 to 88. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 153 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE POINT OF PINES LOCATION (6040 MSL) $$ AZZ154-201415- Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154 Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC- 342 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .TONIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........64 to 74 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Max Humidity.............52 to 62 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 6 to 10 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South 10 to 15 mph. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northeast 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........50 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. * Max Temperature..........82 to 92 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Min Humidity.............28 to 38 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Little change. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..Light winds becoming west around 20 mph in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........70 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10938 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........Northeast 6 to 14 knots. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (109380 knot-ft). .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature..........61 to 71 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 1 to 4 degs. * Max Humidity.............65 to 75 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 10 to 14 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..South around 20 mph becoming southeast around 10 mph after midnight. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........North 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip.........80 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather..............Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. * Max Temperature..........79 to 89 degs. * 24 hr Trend...........Down 2 to 5 degs. * Min Humidity.............35 to 45 pct. * 24 hr Trend...........Up 3 to 7 pct. * Wind (20 ft/10-min avg)..East around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. * 10000 ft MSL Wind........Northwest 5 to 10 mph. * Chance of Precip.........70 pct. * LAL......................4. * Haines Index.............3 or very low. * Mixing Height............10958 ft agl. * Transport Winds..........East 8 knots shifting to the west 11 knots in the afternoon. * Ventilation Category.....Excellent (120538 knot-ft). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... WINDS IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 ARE SURFACE 20 FT/10-MIN AVG .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 78 to 88. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 36 to 46 pct. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 60 to 70. Highs 79 to 89. Light winds. Minimum Humidity 31 to 41 pct. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62 to 72. Highs 81 to 91. Northeast wind around 15 mph. Minimum Humidity 30 to 40 pct. .THURSDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 62 to 72. Highs 80 to 90. .FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 62 to 72. Highs 79 to 89. NOTE TO USERS - ZONE 154 VENTILATION CATEGORY...MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE BASED ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE ZONE $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson