348
FXUS64 KTSA 140336
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Ongoing forecast is trending well tonight with light southerly wind
and a few passing mid and high clouds. Some of the latest guidance
suggests high-based convection may drift into nern OK from ern KS
after sunrise Sunday, similar to past several mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A mid level impulse continued to drift southeast across the region
this afternoon with scattered cloud cover across Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Latest Satellite data showed
cloud tops warming across Northwest Arkansas...while trying to
cool slightly across Northern Oklahoma. A low potential for a stray
shower remains this afternoon near the Kansas border.
However...with the high base of the cloud cover...any precip that
may make it to the surface should be a sprinkle at most.
Thus...will continue to keep PoPs in Northeast Oklahoma below
mentionable criteria.

Cloud cover across the northern portion of the CWA should scatter
out this evening and tonight...while continuing to be
scattered/broken across the southern half of the CWA in response
to a mid level low lifting northeast across Eastern Texas. Low
temps tonight are expected to remain in the 70s for most locations
with continued southerly low level winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Hot and humid conditions begin to expand across the CWA Sunday and
continue into Tuesday as high pressure...currently centered near
the Four Corners region...builds eastward over the
Southern/Central Plains. This will create high temps of mid 90s to
around 103 deg each day with heat index values of 100 to near 110
deg. Have added parts of Northeast Oklahoma into the Arkansas
River Valley of West Central Arkansas into a heat advisory for
Sunday afternoon. Depending on how dewpoint trends go Sunday
afternoon...there is potential that the current heat advisory
could be expanded over more of Eastern Oklahoma. Additional heat
headlines are likely Monday and Tuesday as well.

The mid level low lifting northeast over Texas this afternoon
should remain just to the southeast and east of the CWA into
Monday with the main impact being scattered cloud cover over
Southeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Any associated precip
should stay southeast of the CWA.

The dome of high pressure is progged to retreat westward
Tuesday/Wednesday which will bring northwesterly upper level flow
back over the CWA for the second half of next week. A couple low
pressure systems are forecast to drop through the region with a
return of showers and thunderstorms. PoPs look to begin Tuesday
night across Northeast Oklahoma and expand over the CWA Wednesday
into Thursday with the upper level trof axis and associated
frontal boundary moving into the region. Latest model solutions
indicate the frontal boundary making through Southeast Oklahoma
Thursday night...though keeping the upper level trof axis over the
region for Friday. Thus...will hold onto slight chance PoPs for
parts of Southeast Oklahoma Friday.

With the precip chances and the boundary expected to move through
the CWA...temps Wednesday should remain hot/humid for the southern
half of the CWA and then become below seasonal average for
Thursday/Friday. High temps back in the 80s are currently forecast
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South
winds will gust to near or above 20 knots at times Sunday at KTUL
and KRVS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  99  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   74  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74 101  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   71  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   72  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   74  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   74  97  75  99 /  10   0   0   0
F10   74  97  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  94  75  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054-055-059-
     060-066-070>072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05