724
FXUS64 KTSA 091721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The main changes this morning were to cancel the Flood Watch and
to remove PoPs over in W AR as the rains from the remnants of
Beryl have shifted east of the forecast area. The HRRR suggest
some low potential for a few showers this afternoon across far NE
OK/NW AR so inserted low PoPs there. Also used CONShort to bump up
cloud cover over the low NBM numbers.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Rainfall associated with the remnants of Beryl continues across
western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma early this morning. Have
cancelled some of the counties in the flood watch, but have
continued it for a few counties in western Arkansas as well as Le
Flore county in Oklahoma, where rainfall rates have been greatest
the past several hours.

Most of the rainfall should exit the area this morning, with some
sunshine expected by afternoon to allow most places to reach the
80s for afternoon high temperatures today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Generally quiet weather will prevail over the next week with a
gradual warming trend. There remains a low potential for a popup
shower or storm just about anywhere for at least the next 2-3
days, but chances are too low to include in the forecast. With
time, an upper ridge will build into the area from the west, which
will likely put an end to any isolated storm chances, and allow
temperatures to continue to climb. Heat headlines will likely
become necessary by later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Sct to bkn cu with cigs in the low VFR range will prevail thru the
afternoon. Sfc winds will be N to NW with speeds generally blo
impactful levels. Clear skies are expected tonight with light
winds. Some fog is possible at the far NW AR terminals after
midnight and have inserted tempo MVFR BR mention.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  92  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   67  93  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   66  92  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   62  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   60  89  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   62  89  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   66  92  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   64  91  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   66  93  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   67  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30